The U.S.-Türkiye relations will be put to the test in Trump's new term!

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DOI : https://doi.org/10.32739/uha.id.57437

Evaluating the victory of Republican candidate Donald Trump in the last presidential elections in the USA and its international effects, Asst. Prof. Selin Karana drew attention to the possible post-election relations between Türkiye and the United States and expressed that "In Trump's new term, U.S.-Türkiye relations will be put to the test on a number of issues. One of them is the F-35 problem."

Stating that another problem that is expected to be solved during the Trump era is the support of the USA to the YPG, Asst. Prof. Selin Karana said that "Trump is adopting a more inward-looking policy by curtailing U.S. military activities and financial support in remote areas. In this context, there is a possibility that the reduction of the American military presence in Syria and the relaxation of support for the YPG will open up space for Türkiye."

Üsküdar University, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Asst. Prof. Selin Karana evaluated the victory of Republican candidate Donald Trump in the last presidential elections in the USA and its international effects.

Polarizing rhetoric was witnessed during the election process

Asst. Prof. Selin Karana stated that “First of all, during the campaign process of the United States Presidential election, we witnessed a process in which Republican Party candidate Donald Trump and Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris applied a campaign strategy on each other rather than polarizing rhetoric and promises of the future. While the two candidates seemed to have a very close percentage of votes in the polls applied to the American people, the US press, on the one hand, tried to tighten the ranks of the candidates' fan groups with polarizing rhetoric, and on the other hand, they served news that the candidate they supported was ahead in the polls. However, contrary to the fierce competition and the close marking between the candidates predicted in the polls, Donald Trump managed to win the elections by a wide margin with an unexpected success in the elections."

Trump's promises in the economic sphere have also had an impact

Drawing attention to Donald Trump's unexpected success, Asst. Prof. Selin Karana stated that "This success can be explained by its criticism of the failure of some of the policies of its predecessor Joe Biden administration during the campaign process, its anti-immigrant stance since past campaigns, its promises and peaceful policies, especially in the economic field. Moreover, the fact that his rival Kamala Harris' promises of freedom, which emphasized identity politics, did not find a response in the eyes of the people may have contributed to Trump's success."

Trump's victory has the support of African-American and Latin-American voters

According to the New York Times, an important factor in Trump's victory was the support Harris received from African-American and Latin-American voters, who were expected to be the electorate, Asst. Prof. Karana said that "In addition, Harris' personalization of the race by focusing on her opponent Trump instead of her election promises may have provoked a negative reaction among the voters, which may have caused some voters to support Trump."

Can the F-35 problem be solved with Trump?

Evaluating the possible relations between Türkiye and the United States after the elections, Asst. Prof. Selin Karana continued her remarks as follows:

"President Erdoğan's relations with Donald Trump have been up and down in the past. In 2019, although Trump's letter written in a style that ignored the diplomatic language and his threatening posts on Twitter against the Turkish economy led to a cooling of relations, Erdoğan warmly celebrated the election results by calling him "my friend" due to the sincerity between Trump and Erdoğan. Nevertheless, in Trump's new term, U.S.-Türkiye relations will be put to the test on a number of issues. One of them is the F-35 problem. Türkiye's purchase of the S-400 air defense system from Russia caused the US not to deliver F-35 fighter jets to Türkiye. It is expected that this problem will be resolved during the Trump administration."

Reduction of the American military presence in Syria...

Trump may not be able to end this war on his own

Noting that Trump often emphasizes that he will end the Ukraine-Russia war if he is elected during the presidential election campaign, Asst. Prof. Selin Karana stated that "In this case, it can be expected that the Trump administration will cut off the military and economic aid provided by the Biden administration to Ukraine and force Ukraine to sit at the table with Russia. However, it can be predicted that the European Union, which feels the Russian threat close and intense, will continue to support Ukraine. Therefore, while Trump's role is important, it may not be possible for Trump to end this war on his own unless Russia and Ukraine make mutual concessions for peace and the EU feels safe."

Who benefits from the end of the Ukraine-Russia war?

Asst. Prof. Karana said that although the end of this war has positive consequences for Türkiye, the separation of the east of Ukraine and the forcing of a peace that will damage its territorial integrity may strengthen Russia's hand and shake the balance of power on the European continent in the near future. Russia's expansion of its sphere of influence as a result of the connivance of the Trump administration may increase the threat perception of European countries towards Russia and harm the stability of the region in the medium term.”

The conflict of interest between Türkiye and the United States can be experienced over the Palestinian-Israeli issue

Explaining that the Democrats' critical approach to Israel's attacks on Gaza during Harris' campaign while supporting Israel during the Biden administration created the impression of a hypocritical policy in the voters, Asst. Prof. Karana said that "It remains unclear whether Trump's peace rhetoric includes the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. For this reason, in Trump's new presidency, the main conflict of interest between Türkiye and the United States may be experienced over the Palestinian-Israeli issue. Looking at Trump's campaign rhetoric, it is seen that he supported Israel during Israel's attacks and established close relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Therefore, it can be predicted that Trump, even if he expresses a pro-peace discourse, will not be on the side of a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli issue. "It is pro-Israel policies could also pit the Trump administration against the Erdogan administration."

The U.S.-China conflict may affect international trade and reflect on Türkiye

Asst. Prof. Selin Karana reminded that Donald Trump positioned China as an important competitor of the US in the international arena during his 2016-2020 presidency and started a trade war against China, arguing that China harmed the American economy with unfair trade agreements. Asst. Prof. Karana said that "In this new era, Trump may continue this policy and see China as the main rival of the United States, contrary to the approach of the Biden era that targeted Russia. In this case, it can be expected that the US-China conflict will affect international trade and reflect on Türkiye along with all countries of the world."

Trump gives Musk authority to oversee cabinet ministers

Noting that US billionaire Elon Musk contributed to Trump's campaign by giving $15 million, and in return, he earned $15 billion with Trump's victory. Asst. Prof. Selin Karana said that "During Musk's campaign, Trump's support for Trump on Twitter (X), which he owns, played a role in Trump's victory. In return for this support, Trump gave Musk the authority to oversee the ministers in the cabinet. We can predict that in Trump's new term, the media and his politics will clamp down on American democracy."

Üsküdar News Agency (ÜNA)