Prof. Deniz Ülke Arıboğan: "The Moscow attack is not unexpected"

Commenting on the attack on the concert hall in Moscow, Prof. Deniz Ülke Arıboğan expressed that "The Hamas attack gave Russia the opportunity to breathe with the reaction that followed, and now the ISIS attack can put oxygen cylinders on Israel. It is an interesting equation."

Prof. Arıboğan: "When we talk about DAESH, let us remind you that the mind that feeds, nurtures and keeps it alive also feeds the terror against Türkiye through DAESH (the antithesis of both Islamist terrorism itself and the Kurdish fighters fighting for the West, which it has placed against it). Thus, depending on Putin's reaction, it might affect us again."

Üsküdar University Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Dean Prof. Deniz Ülke Arıboğan evaluated the attack on a concert hall in Moscow, in which dozens of people lost their lives.

"Russia is an experienced country in subjecting to such actions"

Reminding that Russia is an experienced country in being exposed to urban-centered and highly destructive actions, Prof. Deniz Ülke Arıboğan said that "Although the Moscow attack is shocking for the whole world, it is actually not unexpected."

"Actions can be followed..."

Prof. Deniz Ülke Arıboğan stated that “They are at war both outside and inside. The action seems to be more complicated and destructive than it seems now. There may also be a chain of action plan. So, it can come back.”

Analyzing the possibilities, Prof. Deniz Ülke Arıboğan listed these analyzes as follows:

1- The U.S. and Western diplomatic missions have recently received a warning that extremist organizations are planning terrorist acts. That is, the intelligence services have detected the preparation of the action. It also shows that it is known who is doing this action.

"The fact that the US administration is trying to vindicate Ukraine shows the criticality of the situation"

2- If Ukraine is in the background, a very harsh retaliation similar to Israel's reaction to the Hamas attack can be expected. Acts of terrorism serve to justify the reaction. The United States, which recognizes Israel's right to self-defense, will find it difficult to question Russia's legitimacy. The fact that the US administration is trying to exonerate Ukraine without any evidence and without even offering condolences shows the criticality of the situation.

"Including Wagner Group, it is possible..."

3- The fact that it takes place immediately after the elections in which Putin emerged victorious also puts on the table the possibility of an action related to the domestic political situation. The activists appear to be highly trained soldiers. Including Wagner Group, it is a possibility.

The use of Islamist militants as subcontractors...

4- We can say that if there is movement in Idlib, the extensions of DAESH will be pointed out as the perpetrators. It is customary to use Islamist militants as subcontractors.

"The war may expand to the west of Ukraine..."

5- NATO is looking for access to the Black Sea through Romania. It is building its largest base in Europe in the Black Sea with an investment of 2.5 billion dollars. The action could trigger Russia's preemptive geopolitical offensive and the war could expand to the west of Ukraine.

6- The attack that came after Macron's harsh outburst may also cause France to be in a difficult situation.

"We have entered a period of walking on thin ice..."

7- Terrorist acts aim at the formation of reaction, not the effect. Major attacks also create the expectation of a big reaction. We have entered a period of walking on thin ice.

"The attack appears to have originated from ISIS"

Üsküdar University Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences Dean Prof. Deniz Ülke Arıboğan emphasized that the Moscow attack seems to have originated from ISIS/ISIS according to the latest information and evaluated items 1-4 and 7 in the probability analysis collectively.

Prof. Deniz Ülke Arıboğan continued as follows:

1- The international attacks carried out by DAESH outside the Middle East region are actions that it is used as a subcontractor/undertaken. Behind it are the intelligence services and are the instrument of mutual retaliation in the East-West rivalry that has now evolved into the Cold War model. It cannot act on its own, provide logistical support, or maintain its existence.

"An ISIS attack could put oxygen cylinders on Israel. It is an interesting equation..."

2- The aim of the attack may be Putin's orientation towards an unconscious and disproportionate reaction that is similar to Netanyahu and the reactivation of Russia's Middle East front. Russian influence on the Ukrainian front, which has become invisible since Israel's attack on Gaza and has moved in the direction of progress, may have been tried to be stopped with the reopening of the Second Front. By activating the relatively stagnant situation in Syria, it may be aimed to turn Israel back into an ally needed by the West, to remind the Russian danger, and to relegate Gaza to the background in the Western public opinion. The Hamas attack gave Russia a breathing space with the reaction that followed, and now the ISIS attack could put oxygen cylinders on Israel. It's an interesting equation.

"Putin is someone who 'eats cold food' when it comes to revenge..."

3- Considering that Putin is a cold-blooded politician, there is a possibility that the retaliation will take place in Western capitals through ISIS, targeting French territory as a priority. Macron had already put his country on the front lines with his latest statement. The reactivation of Syria may not be in Putin's interest. Let us remind you that Putin is a person who "eats cold dish" when it comes to revenge.

"The end of the matter may affect us (Türkiye) again"

4- Keeping the idea of "Islamist terror" alive in the mass memory is the most valuable tool for the consolidation of Western public opinion and the acceptance of the US leadership. This cognitive orientation is also essential for Israel. Let us also remember that the very mind that feeds, nurtures and keeps alive when we talk about Daesh also feeds the terror against Türkiye through Daesh (the antithesis of both Islamist terror itself and the Kurdish fighters fighting for the West against it). So, depending on Putin's reaction, it could affect us again."

 

Üsküdar News Agency (ÜNA)