Iran is practicing 'strategic patience' in the face of Israel's provocations!

Political Scientist Prof. Havva Kök Arslan stated that Iran's air attack on Israel was successful from Iran's point of view and said that Iran was wanted to be lured into a trap. Pointing out that Iran does not want to engage in a regional war, Arslan also evaluated Türkiye's stance. Arslan stated that "Türkiye's stance is correct, appropriate and careful. The growth of this crisis and its transformation into a regional war is very risky for Türkiye. A possible U.S.-Iran war would create very difficult conditions for Türkiye, a NATO member. Therefore, Türkiye should maintain its neutrality."

Üsküdar University Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences Political Science and International Relations (English) Department Head Prof. Havva Kök Arslan evaluated Iran's retaliation against Israel and discussed Türkiye's stance.

"Iran thinks that time is on its side"

Prof. Havva Kök Arslan stated that Iran's air strike, which retaliated against Israel's attack, was successful from Iran's point of view, and said that "Because Iran does not want to enter a regional war. He thinks that time is moving in his favor. The groups in the region that have military forces (Ansarullah in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq, military groups close to Iran in Syria), which it calls resistance forces acting together with Iran, all think that time is working in their favor. Iran is practicing 'strategic patience' in the face of Israeli provocations because, especially with the establishment of the multipolar world, Iran sees that it is losing power in America and the Western world, which are Israel's biggest supporters. In parallel with this loss of power, it thinks that support for Israel will decrease. Meanwhile, Hamas has transformed itself into Hezbollah. In other words, Iran thinks that the time is on its side."

"Iran has reached the stage of building nuclear weapons"

Stating that Iran has also reached the stage of making nuclear weapons, Prof. Havva Kök Arslan continued her remarks as follows:
"Iran has officially announced that it is accelerating its uranium enrichment activities due to the unilateral withdrawal of the United States from the nuclear deal signed with the 5 permanent members of the Security Council and Germany during the Trump era and the Europeans no longer being able to find a proper alternative. According to some estimates, maybe Iran has nuclear weapons or is about to do it. It also has a significant stockpile of chemical weapons."

Iran does not want a full-scale war with the United States in the Middle East...

Arslan said that Iran does not want to enter into a full-scale war with the United States in the Middle East and stated that "For this reason, it has responded in a measured way to many provocations made by Israel since October 7. Hezbollah, one of the groups backed by Iran, has also responded in a measured manner. Their assumption is that Israel cannot defeat Hamas. At the moment, despite the genocidal ethnic cleansing in Gaza, it has not achieved its strategic goals and will not achieve them at this rate. It is understandable that Israel, which calls up even the Hasidis who refuse to take up arms in Israel's hands, is provoking a major war and wants to draw America into the war."

Netanyahu wants to turn the Gaza war into a regional war for the sake of his political future

Noting that Netanyahu sees the transformation of the Gaza war into a regional war as the only way out for his own political future, Prof. Havva Kök Arslan said that "The attack that has been carried out in Gaza so far has led to the killing and massacre of 33 thousand innocent innocents and the wounding of more than 70 thousand Palestinians. Despite all this, Israel has not achieved its goals, it has not achieved results. It has not been able to rescue the hostages, it has not been able to capture or kill very important Hamas leaders. It became a baby killer. For the first time, Israel has been subjected to very heavy criticism, including from the Western world. Netanyahu is stuck inside Israel. Therefore, it thinks that if it can draw Iran into the war and turn it into a regional war, it can save both itself and Israel. Israel's calculation is that in the event of such a regional war, the United States and the Western world will stand behind Israel against Iran."

"Iran is aware that it wants to be lured into a trap"

Explaining that Iran was aware of the fact that it wanted to be lured into a trap, Prof. Havva Kök Arslan said, "But on the other hand, it felt obliged to respond to the attack on the Damascus Consulate building. He must answer, but this answer should not lead to a regional war. From this point of view, Iran is successful in terms of its political assessments."

"Netanyahu did not get what it wanted"

Stating that it cannot be said that Netanyahu got what it wanted, Prof. Havva Kök Arslan said that "If Israel had ended its attacks in Gaza and then Iran had retaliated, or if Iran had attacked without Israel's consulate attack, Netanyahu could have enlisted the support of the West and attempted to crack down on Iran. In the United States and European countries, there has also been a public opinion that criticizes Israel and considers Israel's actions unacceptable. However, despite these public votes, there are governments that support Israel unconditionally. In such an environment, as long as Israel's attacks on Gaza continue, nothing has changed because the administrations are already on Israel's side. Iran must have calculated all this. Western governments are in a bind. On the one hand, it has to give unconditional support to Israel, and on the other hand, it has to take seriously the criticism of its genocidal ethnic cleansing."

"It is not in America's interests to give unconditional support to Israel"

Commenting that it is not in America's interests to unconditionally support an Israel that practices ethnic cleansing that amounts to genocide in a multipolar world, Prof. Havva Kök Arslan made the following remarks:

"For one thing, the US is losing the public vote of its Arab allies, if not losing their leaders. Second, Western rhetoric and claims about democracy, human rights, and freedom of expression become meaningless. Israel cannot enter into a direct conflict with Iran without American support. Therefore, Netanyahu wanted to draw America into the war to start a regional war and start a U.S.-Iran war. It failed to achieve this goal either. Biden appears to have told Netanyahu not to "retaliate against Iran."

As for the United States, the evolution of the crisis into a regional war and its transformation into an American-Iranian war will adversely affect its interests. The U.S. does not want to spend more of its energy and energy in the Middle East before the elections. That would be in the interest of both China and Russia. From this perspective, we can say that the meeting between Biden and Netanyahu will determine the course of the crisis in the coming days."

"Türkiye's line is correct, appropriate and careful"

Evaluating Türkiye's stance, Prof. Havva Kök Arslan stated that "Türkiye's line is correct, appropriate and careful. The policy of not allowing the United States to use not only its bases but also its airspace is correct. He pursues a balanced and careful policy. The growth of this crisis and its transformation into a regional war is very risky for Türkiye. A possible U.S.-Iran war would create very difficult conditions for Türkiye, a NATO member. Therefore, Türkiye must maintain its neutrality. However, there is a high probability that the PKK will be reactivated and that there will be attempts to destabilize the South Caucasus. It is also necessary to prevent the formation of anti-Iranian views in the public."

 

Üsküdar News Agency (ÜNA)