In the next 20-30 years, we are expected to be a country experiencing 'water scarcity'

Experts say that sudden and heavy rains contribute poorly to both dams and groundwater nutrition, and that this is the main reason for water shortages in many regions today. Noting that long periods of drought and heavy rains have been seen in 20 years, Asst. Prof. Ahmet Adiller emphasized that the main reason for the water shortage today is climate change.

Asst. Prof. Ahmet Adiller said "Our country is a country experiencing 'water stress' when the amount of water per capita is evaluated, and according to the studies, we are expected to be a country experiencing 'water scarcity' in the next 20-30 years, taking into account the population growth."

Üsküdar University VSHS Environmental Health Program Head Asst. Prof. Ahmet Adiller evaluated the occupancy rates of the dams in Istanbul. Adiller said that “Since Istanbul is the most populous city in our country, the need for water is naturally quite high," and he added that according to official data, a very high amount of water is naturally used in the city, where the population reaches 16 million.

The average daily water use in Istanbul is over 3 million cubic meters

According to the 2020 data of the Turkish Statistical Institute, the amount of daily water use per capita in Istanbul is 190 liters, Adiller said that "When we calculate even with average values, we see that the daily water usage amount is over 3 million cubic meters. In a statement made by ISKI (İstanbul Water and Sewerage Administration) in July 2023, it was shared that a record was broken in water use and approximately 3.6 million cubic meters of water was used in a day. It is very difficult to supply this amount of water, especially in the Marmara Region, which is not rich in water resources."

The drought we experienced this year may be repeated in the coming years

Explaining that, it is seen that the occupancy rate of the dams has not decreased so much in the past, especially in November 2023 when we look at the dam occupancy rates of the last 10 years, and Asst. Prof. Adiller continued his remarks as follows: "When we evaluate it as of November 15, our dam occupancy rate is around 17 percent. When we look at the previous years, we see that it was around 28 percent on the same dates of 2020. This gives us an idea that although the drought we experienced this year may seem extraordinary, it may be repeated in the coming years."

Studies should be carried out on water reuse

Stating that the daily amount of water consumed per capita in Ankara, which has a high population density, is 246 liters, and 221 liters in İzmir, Asst. Prof. Ahmet Adiller said that "From this point of view, it would not be correct to say that our citizens in İstanbul use a very high level of water. However, it is still important in many ways that we save water and reduce water use to lower levels. In order to solve this situation radically, especially considering that the population continues to increase, it will not be enough to save water alone. In addition to water saving, studies should be carried out on the efficient use of water potential, reuse of water, and effective population policies should be worked on for İstanbul."

Why do the water levels of some dams drop from time to time, even though it is raining?

Stating that not all precipitation directly fills the dams, Adiller said that "Dams only receive the rainfall directly on their surfaces. Some of the precipitation that falls on the land also feeds the dams with a delay for a certain period of time. The amount of water that feeds the dams also varies depending on how rainfall falls. In order for the dams to be highly fed by rainwater, the precipitation must either fall in the form of snow or fall in the form of low-intensity rains at frequent intervals.”

There is no serious decrease in rainfall from past to present

Stating that sudden and heavy rains make a low contribution to both dams and groundwater nutrition, Ahmet Adiller said that "Unfortunately, this is the main reason why we are experiencing water shortages in many regions today. When we examine the amount of precipitation from past to present, we see that there is no serious decrease. There are even places where it increases regionally. However, at this point, serious changes are observed in the way precipitation falls.

There is a temperature increase of 1.2°C On average in Türkiye

Unfortunately, the geography of our country is very affected by climate change. Studies show that there is an average temperature increase of 0.72°C for the period 1951-2012 worldwide while an average temperature increase of 1.2°C in Türkiye is determined in the 32 years between 1979-2010. In the last 20 years, we have seen the effects of this with long periods of drought and heavy rains. This situation causes us to suffer material and moral damage in different ways. The main reason why we are experiencing water shortages today is that we feel the effects of climate change deeply."

What are the effects of decreasing water levels on agriculture, energy production and water supply?

Stating that water is needed in all human activities, Adiller said that "We use water directly in some of these activities. Although we do not use some of it directly, water is used in many different areas, from the nutrients we need to clothes, and from goods to energy production. That's why water is a must."

Reminding that surface water resources such as dams, ponds and groundwater are the direct raw materials of many sectors, Adiller continued his remarks as follows:

"According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry in 2022, 44 billion cubic meters (77 percent) of our country's 57 billion cubic meters of water use is used for irrigation. This amount of water used for irrigation was 40 billion cubic meters 5 years ago and 32 billion cubic meters 10 years ago. This increase over the years is not limited to the use of water for agricultural purposes. In the last 10 years, both the need for potable water and water use in industry have increased, and estimates reveal that it will continue to increase in the coming years. The effects of climate change are also expected to increase in the coming years, when the need for irrigation is projected to increase."

About 20 percent of energy production comes from hydropower

Stating that according to the 2022 data by the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, approximately 20 percent of our country's energy production comes from hydroelectric power generation, Adiller concluded his words as follows: "This situation reveals that the damages that may occur in water resources can also affect energy production. However, the fact that our country's hydroelectric energy potential is quite high shows that this situation can be prevented with the investments to be made.

We are a country experiencing 'water stress'

However, our country is a country experiencing 'water stress' when the amount of water per capita is evaluated and we make a general evaluation. According to the studies, we are expected to be a country experiencing 'water scarcity' in the next 20-30 years, considering the population growth. In fact, we can say that our Marmara, Sakarya and Küçük Menderes basins will face this situation when regional evaluations are made today. In the current situation, if we do not use and manage our water resources correctly, we can say that much more difficult days await us in the coming years."

Üsküdar News Agency (ÜNA)