Could Assad's amnesty have an impact on the return of Syrian refugees?

Commenting on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's amnesty decision and the issue of Syrian refugees in Türkiye, International Relations Expert Assoc. Prof. İbrahim Arslan expressed that "The return of Syrian refugees in Türkiye to their country is an issue that has humanitarian, domestic and foreign political dimensions for Türkiye and Syria."

Reminding that most of the Syrian refugees in Türkiye are in Türkiye due to opposition to the regime or pressure from the regime, Assoc. Prof. İbrahim Arslan stated that "When these people return to their countries, they will ensure the safety of themselves and their relatives, they will not face any difficulties in accessing public services, their assets they had before the civil unrest will be returned, and they will not be able to continue their everyday lives. They need to be convinced that they will not experience any oppression.”

Üsküdar University International Relations Master's Program faculty member Assoc. Prof. İbrahim Arslan commented on the amnesty decision issued by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the return process of Syrian refugees in Türkiye.

What will be the impact of the amnesty on Syrian refugees?

Reminding that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad issued an amnesty for those who committed crimes before September 22, 2024, Assoc. Prof. İbrahim Arslan stated that the amnesty decree does not cover some crimes that constitute a serious attack on society and the state, bribery, forgery and some misdemeanors against public morality.

Noting that those living in Syria must apply to the relevant authorities to benefit from the amnesty within three months and those living outside Syria within four months, Assoc. Prof. İbrahim Arslan expressed that "If these periods are exceeded, it will not be possible to benefit from the amnesty. From the point of view of Türkiye, it is important to find answers to the questions 'How can the amnesty announced in Syria affect the desire of Syrian refugees in Türkiye to return?', 'Considering the scope and conditions of the amnesty, what are the potential risks that asylum seekers who want to return may face?', 'Do these risks affect the decision of asylum seekers to return?' and 'What can be done for the safe return of asylum seekers?'"

Attention to the recent change in Türkiye's foreign policy towards Syria...

Reminding that the Assad regime issued similar amnesty decisions in the past, Assoc. Prof. İbrahim Arslan continued his remarks as follows:

"Considering that amnesty has been granted by the Syrian government about twenty times during the civil unrest in Syria since 2011, it can be foreseen at first glance that the amnesty for crimes committed before September 22, 2024 is no different from previous amnesty decisions and will not cause any change in attitude towards asylum seekers in Türkiye, but it should be stated that this approach ignores the recent change in Türkiye's foreign policy towards Syria."

President Erdogan's desire to meet with Bashar al-Assad...

Noting that as it is known, there is a statement by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on September 21, 2024, " We have also demonstrated our will to meet with Bashar Assad to normalize relations between Türkiye and Syria. Now we are waiting for a response from the other side." Assoc. Prof. İbrahim Arslan said that "From this point of view, it should be noted that Assad's amnesty decree, which coincides with Erdogan's statement, is remarkable. The repatriation of Syrian refugees in Türkiye is a humanitarian issue that has domestic and foreign political dimensions for Türkiye and Syria. Most of the Syrian asylum seekers in Türkiye are in Türkiye due to opposition to the regime or pressure from the regime. These people need to be convinced that when they return to their countries, their lives and that their relatives will be ensured, that they will not face any difficulties in accessing public services, that the assets they had before the civil unrest will be returned, and that they will not face any pressure from the Syrian government to continue their everyday lives."

The importance of Türkiye's cooperation with Russia for the solution of the problem...

Assoc. Prof. İbrahim Arslan also stated that the issue of Syrian refugees in Türkiye has been at the forefront of the frequently discussed topics in the Turkish public opinion recently, and that it has seriously confronted the government and the opposition, and Arslan made the following remarks:

"In the context of irregular migration, the view that Syrian asylum seekers, like other migrants coming to Türkiye, may cause serious problems in Türkiye, especially in terms of internal security, in the coming period is gaining weight in the Turkish public opinion. The solution of this problem, which has occurred in Türkiye over a period of about 13 years, requires a non-partisan understanding. In this context, it is considered important to determine a roadmap with the participation of the parties that have a group in the Grand National Assembly of Türkiye to ensure the return of Syrian refugees to their countries in a manner worthy of human rights and dignity, and to encourage the Syrian government to take more comprehensive and courageous steps. It can be predicted that Türkiye's cooperation with Russia for the solution of the problem will ensure/increase Bashar al-Assad's support for the process."

A roadmap for the return of Syrian refugees...

Assoc. Prof. İbrahim Arslan stated that in the roadmap to be determined for the return of Syrian refugees in Türkiye to their countries. Arslan expressed that "the Syrian government should make legal arrangements that will form the basis for the return of Syrian refugees to their countries in accordance with human rights and ensure their safe lives in their countries." "Taking the territorial integrity of Syria as a basis", "Comprehensive good neighborliness, security and cooperation between Türkiye and Syria" signing of the agreement (In the conjuncture where Israel has increased its aggressive attitude in the region, the rapprochement between Türkiye and Syria may become easier.)", "Measures that can be taken for the reconstruction of Syria", "Establishment of an international mechanism with the participation of Russia, Iran and Türkiye – if possible under the leadership of the UN – for the monitoring of the process in Syria", "Reconsideration of the Turkish citizenship granted to Syrian asylum seekers who are found not to meet the appropriate conditions” were among the issues that were emphasized.

How will Syrian refugees return to their country in accordance with human rights?

Assoc. Prof. İbrahim Arslan also drew attention to the issue of "the Syrian government making legal arrangements that will form the basis for the return of Syrian refugees to their countries in accordance with human rights and their safe lives in their countries", and Arslan listed other issues that need to be addressed as follows:

"Taking the territorial integrity of Syria as a basis; Signing of a comprehensive agreement on good neighborliness, security and cooperation between Türkiye and Syria (in a conjuncture where Israel has increased its aggressive stance in the region, the rapprochement between Türkiye and Syria may become easier); Measures that can be taken for the reconstruction of Syria; Establishment of an international mechanism to monitor the process in Syria, if possible, under the leadership of the UN, with the participation of Russia, Iran and Türkiye; Reconsideration of the Turkish citizenship granted to Syrian asylum seekers who are found not to meet the appropriate conditions."

It requires a comprehensive and long-term diplomatic effort

Assoc. Prof. İbrahim Arslan concluded his remarks as follows:

"As a result, it is thought that the return of Syrian refugees in Türkiye to their country is not an issue that can be left to their own wishes within the framework of the latest decree signed by Bashar al-Assad. It is considered that reaching a solution requires a comprehensive and long-term diplomatic effort that takes into account the demands of all relevant parties, including the Syrian government and the opposition, by developing a common position in the domestic public opinion."

 

Üsküdar News Agency (ÜNA)