Was the result determined by disgruntled voters who did not go to the polls?

DOI : https://doi.org/10.32739/uha.id.44812

Evaluating the results of the 31 March 2024 Local Administrations General Election, PAMER Director Political Scientist Asst. Prof. Fehmi Ağca stated that the electoral turnout rate in the election was around 8 percent lower than in other elections and made the following remarks: "It is seen as a strong possibility that a large part of those who did not participate in the election were among the voters who were resentful of the ruling party. This situation is considered to have affected the election results.”

Analyzing that in the past 2-3 years, the living conditions of retirees have been significantly adversely affected, Asst. Prof. Fehmi Ağca expressed that "These election results should be seen as a serious warning from their own voters to the AK Party."

Asst. Prof. Fehmi Ağca: stated that "It is considered that the performance of the CHP, which won most of the mayorships, in the next 4 years will play an important role in the formation of voter trends."

Üsküdar University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Department of Political Science and International Relations (English) and Postcolonial Studies Application and Research Center (PAMER) Director Asst. Prof. Fehmi Ağca evaluated the results of the 31 March 2024 Local Administrations General Election.

Disgruntled voters of the ruling party who did not participate in the election...

Noting that the electoral turnout rate in the election was around 8 percent lower than in other elections, Asst. Prof. Fehmi Ağca stated that "It is seen as a strong possibility that a large part of those who did not participate in the election were among the voters who resented the ruling party. This situation is considered to have affected the election results. In the past 2-3 years, the living conditions of retired citizens have been significantly adversely affected. It can be said that the ruling party's failure to take fair and effective measures in this regard in a timely manner affected the election results."

Who did DEM and İYİ Party voters vote for?

Stating that the most important factor affecting the election results is the support of the DEM Party and İYİ Party voters for the Republican People's Party, Asst. Prof. Fehmi Ağca said that "Compared to the parliamentary elections in May 2023, the DEM Party's vote decreased from 9 percent to 5.6 percent in these elections. From here, around 4.6 percent of the votes went directly to the CHP. The İYİ Party's vote, which was 9.9 percent, decreased to 3.7 percent. Approximately 6.2 votes from this party went to the CHP. It is seen that a total of 10.8 percent of the votes from these two parties have shifted to the CHP."


Between which parties did the votes shift?

Reminding that the CHP's vote in May 2023 was 25.80 percent, Asst. Prof. Fehmi Ağca expressed that "With the votes from these two parties, it already reaches around 36.6 percent. It can be considered that the increase in votes around 1 percent is due to reasons such as the CHP's more success in candidate selection and its effective use of economic problems in election campaigns. The actual vote of the main opposition party appears to be around 37.74 percent - 10.8 percent = 27 percent. This vote is close to the CHP's traditional vote. The CHP has succeeded in making a very effective and successful electoral alliance with DEM and the İYİ Party, either secretly or openly. On the other hand, the Re-Prosperity Party's increase in votes from 2.9 percent to 6.2 percent shows that it gained around 3.4 percent of the votes from the AK Party. The decrease from 36.30 percent of the votes received by the AK Party in the May 2023 parliamentary elections to 35.5 percent in the 2024 local elections can be considered as an expected result under these conditions."

Power fatigue is effective in the results...

Asst. Prof. Fehmi Ağca pointed out that if the AK Party had been able to determine the right election campaign and strategy before the elections, the result could have been different, and concluded his evaluations as follows:

"The lack of a realistic public opinion poll on the vote potential of the Yeniden Refah Party prevented the entry into an electoral alliance with this party. As a result, it is considered that the AK Party's 22-year power fatigue, the mistakes made in the selection of candidates, the inability to determine the election strategy correctly, and most importantly, the AK Party's inability to mobilize its own voters and be effective in taking them to the polls are effective in the election results. These election results should be seen as a serious warning to the AK Party by its own voters. With the correct and successful policies, it will implement until 2028, the AK Party can get the support of the vast majority of voters again, as it did in the past. It is considered that the performance of the CHP, which won most of the mayorships, in the next 4 years will play an important role in the formation of voter trends."

 

Üsküdar News Agency (ÜNA)