Today's 65-year-old people are healthier and more productive!
Population projections show that the proportion of Türkiye's young population in the total population may decline to less than 10 percent in 2050 and 2100. The population in Türkiye is getting older.
Noting that the population will gradually age all over the world, Sociologist Prof. Barış Erdoğan expressed that "Türkiye, on the other hand, has already entered the category of 'very old countries' because more than 10 percent of its population is over the age of 65."
Sociologist Prof. Barış Erdoğan made the following remarks:
"We are getting older, and that is true; however, we can also look on the bright side instead of painting a pessimistic picture. Today's 65-year-old person is healthier and more productive than the 65-year-old person of old times. That is an advantage."
Üsküdar University Head of the Department of Sociology Prof. Barış Erdoğan evaluated the aging of the population in Türkiye and the decrease in the ratio of the young population in the total population.
It is predicted that Türkiye will probably reach a population of around 90 million
Prof. Barış Erdoğan expressed that the population and birth rates have decreased dramatically and stated that "In fact, the decrease in population and birth rates is expected. As urbanization increases in the world and women's participation in employment and education levels increase, a decrease in birth rates is expected. Türkiye has been in this trend for many years. However, this decline began to occur at a faster pace than expected from 2014 onwards especially in the last 4 years. The country had a population target of 100 million; however, the available data show that this target seems difficult. If these trends continue, it is predicted that Türkiye will probably reach a population of around 90 million."
Life expectancy is increasing in Türkiye, like other European and developed countries
Pointing out that this situation is important in two respects, Prof. Barış Erdoğan made the following remarks:
"For a country, a new and young population means dynamism in terms of economy. However, when there is not enough population coming from the lower echelons, problems will begin to occur at the top as well. You may ask, ‘Why?’ Because our population is also aging. The reason we are getting older is because more people are living longer. Due to reasons such as improving health conditions and increasing care opportunities, life expectancy in Türkiye, like other European and developed countries, is increasing and is moving towards the end of the 70s. The question now is: Who will take care of this population? Generations from below need to participate in employment, produce, and pay their taxes, premiums, pensions, and health services. One of the big issues before us is how much we need to get the birth rate up."
Our population will no longer increase, in fact, it is on a decreasing trend
Noting that the worldwide fertility rate, that is, the number of children born per woman, should be at least 2.1 in order for the population to remain in place, Prof. Barış Erdoğan said, "This rate is usually calculated for women between the ages of 16-49. If we think in simple terms, when a man and a woman marry and start a family, they must leave behind at least two children so that the population remains stable. In other words, this is essential for the population to remain constant, let alone to increase. However, according to TurkStat's 2023 data, this rate has decreased to 1.51 in Türkiye. This shows that our population will no longer increase, in fact, it has entered a decreasing trend. This is actually to be expected. A similar situation exists around the world, in Europe and in developed countries. In the past, children made an economic contribution to the family in agrarian societies, but today people choose to have fewer children?. There are various reasons for thi.”
The population in rural areas contributes little to the overall average
Stating that the number of people living in rural areas of Türkiye has decreased considerably, Prof. Barış Erdoğan expressed that "The vast majority of Türkiye has now become a country where there are people working in cities or towns, that is, in non-agricultural sectors, at a level of almost 90 percent. Therefore, the population in rural areas, i.e. child fertility, contributes little to the overall average. For example, in provinces such as Şanlıurfa and Mardin, the fertility rate, which was around five percent 30 years ago, has fallen to around 3.2 today. The reason for this is that with the widespread use of tractors and mechanization in agriculture, the need for children decreases."
Most families settle for one child
On the other hand, stating that a different problem is encountered in the urban environment, Prof. Barış Erdoğan said that "Now, people's expectations have started to change. In the past, children grew up, went to public school, and grew up according to what was possible. That is how most of us grew up in neighborhoods. However, now people want their children to study in private school, take piano lessons, ride horses and have the best facilities. All of this comes with extra costs. At a time when daycare and private school fees are so high, and people are struggling to afford these expenses. Therefore, most families settle for one child.”
Kindergartens where children can be safely entrusted need to be expanded
Prof. Barış Erdoğan said that "We have had a population problem since the founding of the republic. We have created fifteen million young people in ten years, of all ages,' and after the great wars, we needed a young population. Today, we continue to need a productive and young population," and Prof. Barış Erdoğan continued his remarks as follows: "Thus, what can be done? First, improving the quality of public schools and expanding kindergartens are important steps. Mothers are now in a different position than they used to be, and rightly so. Women are getting an education, getting a university education, doing master's and doctorates. It is necessary to expand the number of nurseries where children can be safely entrusted. Moreover, women who give birth or have a certain number of children can be provided with some facilities such as early retirement and credit opportunities. In European countries, Korea and Japan, the state provides great opportunities; however, people are still afraid to have children."
Having a child is postponed to later ages
Stating that in the past, the social expectation or success criterion was to establish a family, have children, reproduce and develop as soon as possible, Prof. Barış Erdoğan expressed that "In the new era, individualism has been increased, constantly surfing the media, wandering, experiencing the world, living your life. When you do all this, you postpone the age of childbearing until later in life. As you procrastinate, that is, as you concentrate on yourself, the age range of having children begins to narrow within this period of time you postpone. This is not unique to Türkiye. In such a world, people either do not want to have children at all or postpone them to later ages."
Prof. Barış Erdoğan noted that it was said that the Syrians who came to Türkiye used to have 5 children, and concluded his remarks as follows: "However, now the number of their children has decreased to 3. As we come to Türkiye and enter the urbanization, the number of children decreases. Conditions are challenging people. This situation is not unique to Türkiye. The population will get older all over the world. Türkiye, on the other hand, has already entered the category of 'very old countries' because more than 10 percent of its population is over the age of 65. We are getting older, and that is true; however, we can also look on the bright side instead of painting a pessimistic picture. Today's 65-year-old person is healthier and more productive than the 65-year-old person of old times. This is an advantage. Moreover, we will be able to transfer some of the work of the young population to robots and machines with the development of robotic technologies and artificial intelligence. However, we exist in this world to be human at the end of the day. We did not build this world for robots or machines. Therefore, the continuation of the generation is important for the good and salvation of humanity. We need to look at it from that point of view."
Üsküdar News Agency (ÜNA)