Ankara is the decisive actor in the recent process in Türkiye-America relations!

Commenting on US President Joe Biden's announcement that he withdrew his candidacy for the elections to be held on November 5, Dr. Güler Kalay stated that "I do not think that who will take the presidency in the White House as a result of the November 2024 elections means a major change for American foreign policy."

Dr. Güler Kalay stated that "It is difficult to foresee a radical change in the general trend in American foreign policy and its relations with Türkiye. In fact, Ankara is the decisive actor in Türkiye-America relations in the recent process."

Üsküdar University Deputy Director of the Center for Strategic Studies Dr. Güler Kalay evaluated US President Joe Biden's announcement that he was withdrawing from candidacy for the elections to be held on November 5 and discussed the impact of the American elections on Turkish foreign policy.

The expectation that it will lead to a softening of the fierce competition in global politics has strengthened

Pointing out her expectations regarding the results of US President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the candidacy, Dr. Güler Kalay stated that "While concerns about the risk of World War III are increasing by looking at regional proxy wars, I think the expectation of whether the result of the American Presidential Election to be held in November 2024 will cause a radical transformation in US Foreign Policy or a softening in the fierce competition in global politics has become a little stronger with Biden's withdrawal from the candidacy. If we recall American foreign policy in general after the Cold War, we see that the support of Democrats and Republicans for the general trend did not make a decisive difference."

It does not fundamentally make a big difference

Reminding that Barack Obama, who carried out the election process with radical discourse after G.W. Bush, did not make a major difference in the foundation, Dr. Güler Kalay said that "Similarly, there was no transformation in the autonomous decision-making power of the American National Security institution in foreign policy during Trump's first presidency. For this reason, especially in the post-Soviet period, the American foreign policy tendency is to ensure the continuity of its hegemony, to support the arms industry as a means of managing its economic collapse and neoliberal crises, and to use its military power strategically on a global scale."

Does who will become president of the White House affect foreign policy?

Dr. Güler Kalay expressed that "Therefore, I do not think that who will take the presidency in the White House as a result of the November 2024 elections means a major change for American foreign policy," and Dr. Güler Kalay reminded that Biden signaled that harsh steps would be taken in foreign policy as a candidate supported by the American arms industry with the phrase "America came back" when he came to the presidency.

"I foresee the possibility of a much greater defeat in Ukraine, which awaits the United States"

Dr. Güler Kalay stated that "When we look at the regional crises that raise the possibility of a new world war today – Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan – they are actually issues directly related to American foreign policy. If we look at recent history, we remember the defeat of American foreign policy and military strategy in Iraq and Afghanistan. Although American military power seems to have achieved some of its strategic goals during the many years it has been there, it has been defeated as a hegemonic power. I foresee the possibility of a much greater defeat in Ukraine, which awaits the United States today."

“I think Washington will support the continuation of the war."

Explaining that Russia is much stronger and has a high military potential than the Afghan Taliban or Iraq, Dr. Güler Kalay said that "Despite the tens of billions of dollars of financial and military aid provided to Ukraine and the economic sanctions imposed on Russia for many years, there is no result, and Ukraine is gradually losing its power and foreign support. With a potential regional war in the Middle East and tensions with China over Taiwan, also linked to the trade war with China, the United States is increasingly being dragged into a dead end in Ukraine. Although Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine, I think Washington will support the continuation of the war."

What is the Kremlin's response to Biden's withdrawal?

Emphasizing that the Kremlin's comment in response to the news of Biden's withdrawal from the election was to 'be patient and carefully watch what will happen', Dr. Güler Kalay stated that "The fact that the Kremlin sees Biden as a more predictable candidate is an indication that Trump does not trust his election promises very much. After all, when it comes to their national interests within the framework of the American National Security Agency, there will not be much difference between Democrats and Republicans. It is possible that Trump will reduce support for Ukraine more quickly than the Democrats; however, there is also a significant segment of the Democrats that is now uncomfortable with this support. However, this much is clear: we can predict that the new candidate that the Democrats will support – which will be determined at the party convention scheduled for August – or Trump, the leader of the Republicans, will have to reduce support for Ukraine."

Anti-Israel sentiment has become increasingly problematic in the American public

Stating that anti-Israel sentiment has become an increasing problem in the American public opinion with the process that has expanded in the Middle East and evolved into a regional war, Dr. Güler Kalay stated that "On the other hand, the Taiwan issue has started to focus again on the Taiwan issue in Washington's competition with China."

The impact of the American elections on Turkish foreign policy

Referring to the issue of who will be the new president of the United States and how this will be reflected in Türkiye-America relations, Dr. Güler Kalay continued her remarks as follows:

"I do not think the Democratic nominee or Trump will bring any major change depending on the global geopolitical and geoeconomic conjuncture. In the current international conjuncture, there is a distinct chill in Turkish-American relations due to Türkiye's prioritization of its national interests above the American alliance and its significant breakthroughs in its own defense industry. Of course, it is not desirable for an important political ally for the United States and an important customer in the defense industry to act more and more independently."

Washington's cooperation with the PKK/YPG and its continued support against Fetullah Gülen...

"On the other hand, Washington's cooperation with the PKK/YPG and its continued support against Fetullah Gülen cause a break not only for Ankara but also for the Turkish public opinion to break away from the 'American Dream' to which it has been attached for many years. For this reason, I do not think that the upcoming White House elections will cause a major change in Türkiye's American foreign policy. Türkiye is geo-strategically an important region and ally for the United States. Turkish foreign policy is aware of this. While putting forward its own foreign policy strategy on a regional and global scale, it acts with a pragmatist approach in its relations with the USA and NATO."

"It is difficult to foresee a radical change in America's relations with Türkiye"

Explaining that he thinks that Trump, the candidate of the Republicans, will take a more moderate approach to his global foreign policy than the Democrats; however, how independent he can take these steps from the general military, economic and bureaucratic elites who are influential in the White House is the main issue, Dr. Güler Kalay stated that "Therefore, it is difficult to foresee a radical change in the general trend in American foreign policy and its relations with Türkiye. In fact, Ankara is the decisive actor in the recent process in Türkiye-America relations. I think this will continue as long as Erdogan remains in power. After 2016, in parallel with the transformation in Turkish foreign policy and important breakthroughs in our defense industry, a more self-confident foreign policy is, of course, important factors in Ankara's decisiveness. On the other hand, I think that the Fethullah Gülen and the 2016 coup attempt, the showdown between the AK Party and Gülen were effective in Erdogan's foreign policy decisions, especially in the direction of America."

“I think Ankara will take a pragmatist approach to Trump's roadmap."

Noting that Washington does not think that it will bring a big difference to Türkiye's approach to Greece, Cyprus, Armenia and Israel, Dr. Güler Kalay said that "However, I still think that if the Republicans win, Ankara will take a pragmatist approach to the road map that Trump will draw."

"It is clear that the Kremlin will be cautious about the steps taken by the new president-elect to the White House"

Emphasizing that Türkiye is in a position that is directly affected both politically, economically and sociologically due to its proximity to global conflict zones, Dr. Güler Kalay continued her remarks as follows:

"Therefore, it is directly interested in the development of these hot conflicts in the coming period. Opinions that Trump is likely to be elected increase optimistic expectations on the Ukraine and Israel issues; however, the Kremlin will not give up its initial goals in Ukraine under any circumstances. Therefore, it is clear that the Kremlin will be cautious about the steps taken by the new president-elect to the White House. Thus, the Ukrainian problem will be determined by Kiev's decision to negotiate and the attitude of both sides to Ankara's attempts at mediation. This process indirectly affects the dialogue between Ankara and Washington. Otherwise, it doesn't make sense to expect Moscow to compromise its war goals with a reduction in military aid to Ukraine."

"Ankara's anti-Israel stance is one of the differences between Ankara and Washington"

Commenting on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Dr. Güler Kalay concluded her remarks as follows: "The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Israel's expansion of the conflict on a regional scale, and Ankara's anti-Israel stance are also one of the different attitudes between Ankara and Washington. Although the different approaches of the two countries to this conflict do not directly oppose, I think that they will continue to create coldness in the context of 'alliance' by indirectly causing a divergence in their regional and global foreign policies."

 

Üsküdar News Agency (ÜNA)