“Ukraine could be the center of World War III!"

While Increasing tensions and conflicts around the world triggers concerns on World War III, analyses on global politics, power balances and possible scenarios question how close the world is to this dangerous threshold.

Stating that the global geoeconomic competition, which has sharpened in the face of China's unstoppable economic rise, is one of the factors that have led to the spread of proxy wars, Dr. Güler Kalay expressed that "We can evaluate the Russia-Ukraine War within this framework, and in the event of a possible World War III, it is likely that the center of the war will be Ukraine."

Dr. Güler Kalay stated that "In this environment where Türkiye's current international war risks are increasing and polarization is sharpening, Türkiye's mediation initiatives for conflict prevention diplomacy and conflict resolution are extremely important."

Üsküdar University Center for Strategic Studies Deputy Director Dr. Güler Kalay evaluated the reasons for the increase in global geopolitical tensions and possible scenarios of World War III.

How long has the rhetoric of World War III existed?

Pointing out that the rhetoric of World War III is not new, Dr. Güler Kalay stated that "Although the end of the Cold War strengthened the expectations of absolute peace at least for the first decade, global capital has started to shift rapidly towards the Asia-Pacific since the early 1990s. This can be seen most clearly in the rise of the Asian Tigers from the crises of the 1990s and the unstoppable economic rise of China. We see that the USA, which defended the continuity of the unipolar world order with the rhetoric s of the new world order and the winner of the Cold War, started to carry out a more aggressive and proactive foreign policy to maintain its hegemonic power in the face of the loss of power in the global economy. Although this is also a reason for today's proxy wars, it has not stopped the change of direction of global capital."

NATO's primary goal is to protect American interests

Stating that "When we look at the present, the rhetoric of the World War III and the rhetoric s that Russia poses more and more threats to Europe also reflect the efforts to strengthen NATO's main mission again,” Dr. Güler Kalay explained that NATO's primary purpose is to protect American interests, as it is often stated, that the perception that Europe is under security threat enables NATO's expansion with the Baltic countries and that Russia's Baltic border is under NATO's control.

Global geoeconomic competition is driving the spread of proxy wars

Stating that the global geoeconomic competition, which has sharpened in the face of China's unstoppable economic rise, is one of the factors that have led to the spread of proxy wars, Dr. Güler Kalay said that "We can evaluate the Russia-Ukraine War within this framework that there is a high probability that the center of the war will be Ukraine in the event of possible World War III. When we look at the previous world wars, we see that one of the most obvious reasons was the problem of capital sharing while the other was the issue of European security. In this context, Ukraine can be a key point for both actors the face of China's rival hegemonic power and Russia's rise as an international military and political power. Of course, pro-Western initiatives and political crises in Taiwan, that is China's backyard, can also be seen as part of this scenario."

The new Cold War and the global power competition...

Pointing out that as the struggle for global hegemony intensifies, geoeconomic projects that will reshape these dynamics emerge along with geopolitical dynamics, Dr. Güler Kalay stated that "The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which is a US-India project against China's Belt and Road Project, is a part of global competition. In the geoeconomic conjuncture created by the new Cold War and global power competition, we see that 'corridor wars' have become a part of the global hegemony competition due to the geopolitical position and scale of these projects."

The starting point of World War III...

Statin that “in this context, the main target is the hegemony race between China and the USA although the primary target of the collective West seems to be Russia and security perceptions,” Dr. Güler Kalay said that "Western capital is engaged in an existential struggle against the rise of Chinese hegemony, which is expected to end American hegemony. Ukraine, which is supported by scenarios of a weak Russia and the containment of China due to the West's first gateway to the east, will be the center of this race and will most likely be the starting point for the possibility of World War III."

For Europe, the 'Russian threat' rhetoric is a reflection of efforts to create a perception

Noting that more players have started to participate indirectly in the Russia-Ukraine war, Dr. Güler Kalay said that "I think that the 'Russian threat' rhetoric for Europe is a reflection of the efforts to create a perception of security in Europe. This will create a justification for NATO's partial or direct participation in the war there. Despite the direct support of EU countries, especially the USA, to Ukraine, no result can be reached against Russia. However, as the cost and burden of the war, which has been going on for more than 2 years, becomes heavier for Russia, global polarization is increasing. Although the aim for the West seems to be to stop the increasing military and political power of Russia, which owns most of the world's hydrocarbon resources and has a large share in the new underground resources in the Arctic, especially in the post-Soviet geography, we can say that the primary goal is to direct China's rise in the global economy and the changing geoeconomic conditions of global capital."

The alliance between Russia and China is strengthening

Stating that the more the reconciliation in the Russia-Ukraine war is prevented, the stronger the alliance between Russia and China, Dr. Güler Kalay continued her remarks as follows:

"Russia's integration into the global capital shifting to the Asia-Pacific is also increasing in parallel. Iran is also included as an important power in the Russian-Chinese alliance, and Moscow-Beijing-Tehran in the region is becoming the direct owner and controller of the new economic corridors. On the other hand, although the American-Indian commercial partnership is an important alternative project, it is not enough for Western capitalists. In this direction, the importance of the Eastern Mediterranean is increasing. Here, Israel, supported by the United States, is fueling new conflicts with an aggressive foreign policy and indirectly ensuring the American return to the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean."

Can a possible global war be prevented?

Stating that Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's rhetoric s of the possible World War IIIpoint to the risk of increasing competition and proxy wars turning into a total global conflict in the current conjuncture, Dr. Güler Kalay said that "The fact that the Ukraine-Russia war has now turned from a conflict between the two sides into a large-scale war in which more international players are involved shows that the center of the possible World War IIIwill again be Europe. In fact, I think that Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's statement that 'war rhetoric should be taken seriously' should be read as a warning for the preventability of a possible global war and that the increasing global competition in the current conjuncture is at a manageable and directable stage."

New proxy wars could also complicate preventive diplomacy

Dr. Güler Kalay also explained her views on Russia-China-Iran cooperation as follows:

"Moreover, the United States may indirectly or directly support the continuation of existing conflicts and/or the formation of new conflict zones considering the increasing influence of BRICS, in order to maintain its hegemony and strengthen its economy, which is largely dependent on the war industry. It is clear that the recent coup attempt in Bolivia also targeted the increasing interest of Latin American countries in BRICS. The upcoming American elections may also be decisive in the direction in which the rhetoric of World War III will be shaped. In contrast to Biden's harsh foreign policy, which is directly supported by the American arms industry, Trump's moderate foreign policy will also have an impact on international relations. It may not be a direct World War III, but new proxy wars and 'corridor wars' in geoeconomic competition can reach dimensions that can complicate preventive diplomacy."

The critical role that Türkiye can play in peacebuilding through mediation...

Dr. Güler Kalay "In this environment where Türkiye's current international war risks are increasing and polarization is sharpening, Türkiye's mediation initiatives for conflict prevention diplomacy and conflict resolution are extremely important," and Kalay continued her remarks as follows:

"In the geoeconomic conjuncture where global power competition is sharpening, 'corridor wars' do not only create a security problem in terms of global trade; However, these projects are becoming part of the competition for global hegemony due to their geopolitical position.

The national and international role that Türkiye will play through 'trade diplomacy' in this competitive environment may also include conflict prevention diplomacy. Türkiye's connectivity strategy towards the Middle Corridor and the Zangezur Corridor can have major implications for building sustainable peace both regionally and globally. In this respect, Türkiye may attract more attention as a regional actor that can create global influence in the near future."

 

Üsküdar News Agency (ÜNA)