An event titled “Towards Multipolarity: Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Middle East” was organized by the Üsküdar University Political Psychology Application and Research Center. The online program was attended by Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan, Head of the Political Science and International Relations Department at Üsküdar University's Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences; Prof. Dr. Ali Poyraz Gürson, Faculty Member at Okan University; Assoc. Prof. Dr. Aleksandr Anatollyevich Sotnichenko, Head of the Russian House at Saint Petersburg University; and Dr. İsmail Sarı, Middle East Expert at ORSAM (Center for Middle Eastern Studies). The program highlighted the future of inter-country relations. Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan noted that the world's economic power balance is shifting eastward, emphasizing that Turkey will be the most important actor in global foreign policy.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Middle East were discussed comprehensively in the program, which was moderated by political scientist Güler Kalay, Assistant Director of Üsküdar University PPM (Political Psychology Application and Research Center).
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Aleksandr Anatollyevich Sotnichenko: “Turkey-Iran, Turkey-China relations can be resolved”
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Aleksandr Anatollyevich Sotnichenko, Head of the Russian House at Saint Petersburg University, delivered the opening speech of the program. Sotnichenko provided information about the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in his speech, stating; “I would like to say a few words about the Shanghai Organization. The Shanghai Organization started in 2001. China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan are members. In 2017, India and Pakistan joined. In 2022, Iran also became a member. Turkey participated as an observer. This Organization is not a military organization like NATO. There are no agreements among us. No military agreements are observed between China, Russia, Pakistan, India, and other countries. Middle East problems, and relations between Iran and the West, are more important here. As a NATO member, Turkey has several goals within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The most important is to forge closer ties with Eurasian Turks, and for Russia and Turkey, to be positioned between the West and Russia. Problems between Turkey-Iran and Turkey-China can be resolved.”
Dr. İsmail Sarı: “Russia and China’s cooperation is shaping around Shanghai”
Dr. İsmail Sarı, Middle East Expert at ORSAM (Center for Middle Eastern Studies), spoke about the structure of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: “The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is not a static organization. In fact, there are some differences between the meaning Russia and China attach to this organization and the meaning its members attach to it. Especially due to the US stance in Ukraine, Russia and China are seeking cooperation. The cooperation between these two countries is shaping around the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. After each summit, we can state that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is gradually moving towards a different structure. Now, due to the intensifying China-US rivalry and the war in Ukraine, Russia and China assign a specific meaning to this organization. There are also members with good relations with the West. Especially India's relations with the US are rapidly developing. Similarly, Kazakhstan has relations with the West. There are also internal rivalries within the organization. It is not entirely accurate to say that everyone is in harmony. First and foremost, there is the Russia-China rivalry, and there are problems between Pakistan and India. It is not accurate to think of the Cooperation Organization as a static body and make definitions based on that.”
“The Russia-China rapprochement is the biggest nightmare for the US”
Sarı continued his speech by discussing the Russia-China rapprochement; “The Russia-China rapprochement is the biggest nightmare for the US. Recently, with the war in Ukraine and the Taiwan issue, we see these two powers beginning to draw closer. Therefore, the US will try to take measures to prevent this. In the geography where China’s Belt and Road Initiative passes, especially in the Indo-Pacific Region, we see rapidly spreading color revolutions and coups. The US is also conducting certain activities in this region. It's not just a place where the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is emerging as a peaceful economic zone within itself. Since 2001, the US has perceived the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a challenge and there are moves aimed at destabilizing the countries within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.”
“Fear of Pan-Turkism in Iran”
Dr. İsmail Sarı touched upon China’s relations with the Middle East. Sarı stated; “China’s relations with the Middle East are important. When the US begins to withdraw from the Middle East, China could fill the power vacuum. Iran will join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a full member in 2023. Iran achieved this thanks to China. Particularly, Iran’s problems with the US, the intensification of competition between China and the US, and the Biden administration’s talk of a new Cold War, highlight China’s decision to take precautions in some way. Since the 2nd Karabakh War, Iran believes that Turkey is surrounding it. Especially after Syria and Iraq, the presence of Turks in the Caucasus is seen as encircling Iran, and there is a serious fear of Pan-Turkism in Iran. Iran, which perceives Turkey as a rising threat in recent times, believes that Turkey's strengthening in the region and the establishment of a land connection with Turkic republics is not in its own interest, and it reacts very strongly.”
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan: “The world’s economic power balance is shifting eastward”
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan, Head of the Political Science and International Relations Department at Üsküdar University’s Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, evaluated economic and political developments. Arslan stated; “In parallel with economic and political matters, Turkey’s perception of China, Russia, or Iran, or Russia’s perception of Turkey, Iran, China, and likewise China’s perception of Turkey, Russia will change very radically in the upcoming period. In fact, something that has not happened in world economic relations for the last 500 years is occurring. The world’s economic power balance is shifting eastward. For the first time in 500 years of world history, the lead is not being taken by a European or Western power. An Eastern power is taking the lead. And China is at its center.”
“Turkey will be the most important actor in global foreign policy”
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan spoke about Turkey-China relations; “China has placed Turkey as an important route in the Belt and Road project and examines Turkey in close detail. It seriously analyzes Turkey’s strengths and weaknesses and tries to act accordingly. Of course, it tries to progress by observing Turkey’s reaction. Turkey’s distancing from the West and its interest in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is also a point that China carefully notes. Our commercial cooperation is not at the desired level, but China especially wants to enter into close cooperation with Turkey in the defense sector. Turkey is holding back on this issue. We believe that Turkey, especially with China, will be the most important actor in global foreign policy.”
Prof. Dr. Ali Poyraz Gürson: “There is a Geopolitical Rupture in the World”
Prof. Dr. Ali Poyraz Gürson, Faculty Member at Okan University, provided information on how international relations, especially the Middle East, would be affected by the desired evolution towards multipolarity. Prof. Dr. Ali Poyraz Gürson stated; “In Southeast Asia, there are very significant developments, not just in East Asia or Central Asia. It is necessary to look carefully not only at the countries in Taiwan but also at the other region there. Therefore, Turkey’s membership is very important in parallel with these developments. There is a geopolitical rupture in the world, and a new understanding of security is being tried to be established, and regarding who will fill the power vacuum in the center, I actually see it as a struggle or war between the New West, New Rome, and the Hun Empire and Mongol Empire. This multipolarity is a new cold peace, and it has particularly turned into a litmus test within the next 2 months. We can also foresee, unfortunately, that the developments and the intensity of the dosage in Ukraine will increase. Because Putin declared mobilization in the war, and developments that will change not only our north but also global balances will become clear within 2 months, before the event takes its definite course.”