President Erdoğan stated that after Palestine and Lebanon, Israel's administration would set its sights on Turkish territories.
Political Scientist Dr. Fehmi Ağca, who made important assessments on Israel's long-term strategies and regional balances, emphasized that Israel's unchanging grand strategy from its inception to today is to create a greater Israel state in the lands where the ancient Kingdom of Israel ruled, by seizing all or a large part of the promised lands.
Dr. Fehmi Ağca said, 'The promised lands also include some of the provinces in southern Turkey such as Hatay, Osmaniye, Kahramanmaraş, and Gaziantep.'
Dr. Fehmi Ağca from Üsküdar University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Department of Political Science and International Relations (English), made important assessments on Israel's long-term strategies and regional balances.
“The promised lands” also include some provinces in southern Turkey!
Dr. Fehmi Ağca stated that Israel's unchanging grand strategy from its inception to today is to create a greater Israel state in the lands where the ancient Kingdom of Israel ruled, by seizing all or a large part of the promised lands, adding, 'The promised lands also include some of the provinces in southern Turkey such as Hatay, Osmaniye, Kahramanmaraş, and Gaziantep. Since Israel cannot achieve this goal solely with its own economic and military power, Western powers such as the US, UK, Germany, and France are supporting Israel.'
Did the 'Arab Spring' make things easier for Israel?
Dr. Fehmi Ağca also explained that the main purpose of the project introduced to the world as the Arab Spring was to remove obstacles that could confront the Israeli army, thereby facilitating Israel's seizure of the promised lands, and, so to speak, to soften the region to prepare the necessary environment for military operations to be carried out quickly and with minimal casualties. He continued:
'For this purpose, so-called Islamic terrorist organizations that are, in essence, puppets of imperialism, such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS, were established, and the PKK and its Syrian offshoot, the PYD terrorist organization, were provided with all kinds of financial aid, weapons, ammunition, and equipment support by the US. As a result, 1.5 million innocent civilians were massacred in Iraq, and nearly 1 million in Syria; especially in Syria, 8-10 million people were forced to leave their homes and flee to other countries, thus making Syrian territories suitable for Israeli occupation. A probable Israeli attack in the near future is highly likely to be supported by the same Western powers. Before this major offensive, according to the planned scenario, Gaza and the West Bank are being tried to be completely neutralized and brought under control.'
How does the death of Hassan Nasrallah affect the balances in the Middle East?
Dr. Fehmi Ağca noted that the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah invalidated Iran's excuses for not entering the war, stating, 'If Iran had not retaliated, Tehran's credibility and position in the region could have been severely damaged. Iranian President Pezeshkian stated that the reason Iran did not retaliate against the killing of Hamas leader Haniye was due to promises made by the US and Western states to achieve a permanent ceasefire in Gaza; however, they did not keep these promises. To restore its broken honor, Iran attacked Israel with over 200 ballistic missiles. However, it is anticipated that Iran's direct attacks on Israel will not be continuous and that it will avoid entering a larger-scale war with Israel.'
The US could get involved in the war
Dr. Fehmi Ağca also stated that after Iran's missile attacks, the US, which held an urgent security meeting under President John Biden, could get involved in the war, saying, 'Iran is trying to improve relations with the US and the West. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated in his speech at the United Nations General Assembly that they are 'ready to revive the nuclear deal' to Western countries.'
Syria will not intervene in the war between Israel and Lebanon…
Dr. Fehmi Ağca stated, 'Hezbollah is the most important armed force that ensures Lebanon's unity and protects it against external powers, especially Israel, holding a stronger position than the Lebanese army.' He continued:
'Hezbollah is a well-developed organization within Lebanon. Iran's support for the organization is very important. Almost the entire upper echelon of Hezbollah has been eliminated through Israeli assassination attacks. Although Hezbollah spokesmen declare that they will continue the resistance, it cannot be said that their attacks and actions against Israel so far have been very effective. Nasrallah's death occurred at a time when Iran's regional influence was under intense pressure. Both Iran and Lebanon are under great economic pressure. The Assad regime is trying to reintegrate with the Arab world. Under these circumstances, it can be assessed that Syria will not intervene in the war between Israel and Lebanon.'
Hezbollah's receiving support from Arab countries…
Dr. Fehmi Ağca noted that the Arab Spring and the conflicts in Syria transformed Nasrallah into a divisive and sectarian figure in the eyes of Sunni Arab peoples, and Hezbollah's support for Assad in the bloody civil war in Syria, as well as its involvement in sectarian conflicts in Iraq and Yemen, negatively affected Nasrallah's image. He stated, 'Once a symbol of Arab unity, he became a tool of sectarian war and caused public anger in many Sunni Arab countries, especially in Syria. This situation makes it difficult for Hezbollah to receive support from Arab countries.'
How will Nasrallah's death be reflected in Lebanon's internal politics?
Dr. Fehmi Ağca stated that Hezbollah is a well-developed organization within Lebanon and the most important armed force that ensures Lebanon's unity and protects it against external powers, especially Israel. He made the following assessment:
'Nasrallah's death could have some important repercussions within Lebanon. Because, in Lebanon, it was not possible to elect a president, form a government, or make a political decision without Nasrallah's approval. Therefore, Nasrallah's death could negatively affect Hezbollah's efforts to align Lebanon with the Iranian axis and could lead to certain changes in Lebanon's internal politics and Hezbollah's policies and strategies. Israel eliminated almost the entire upper echelon of Hezbollah through assassination attacks. Internal political balances in Lebanon, parallel to Hezbollah's loss of power, could be reshaped in line with Israel's interests, influenced by the US and Saudi Arabia. This is because the Lebanese people are thoroughly exhausted by the long-standing violence and economic problems. Nasrallah's death could have significant effects aimed at weakening Hezbollah's infrastructure and base in Lebanon. Hezbollah could turn towards more moderate policies and seek a compromise to enable the Lebanese government to assert its sovereignty over all its territories.'
How will Iran's strategy be shaped in response to Nasrallah's death?
Dr. Fehmi Ağca emphasized that Iran has expanded its influence in the region through Hezbollah and its leader Nasrallah until now, stating, 'Nasrallah's death signifies the loss of a stabilizing force at the heart of Iran's regional strategy. The person who will replace Nasrallah must be accepted by Iran within the scope of Iran's regional strategy. It may take a long time for an exceptional personality comparable to Nasrallah to emerge. As of today, Sayyed Hashem Safieddine, considered the most likely successor to Nasrallah, is Nasrallah's cousin, who has led Hezbollah for 32 years. Under current circumstances, Iran's ability to effectively continue its weapons and equipment support to Hezbollah is doubtful. This situation could negatively impact Hezbollah's struggle with Israel. In this case, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen could carry out attacks against Israel and US targets in the region with their existing missiles and drones.'
“The promised lands” do not include Iran
Dr. Fehmi Ağca stated that the promised lands Israel aims to seize do not include Iran, and such maps are considered manipulative, adding, 'There is no rational basis for Israel to pursue a hostile policy against Iran or for Iran to wage war against Israel. Although Iran-Israel conflicts generally develop in the form of reciprocal missile attacks and assassinations, it is assessed that these situations are orchestrated to gain legitimacy in the domestic politics of both countries. Israel's primary goal is to eliminate entities like Hamas and Hezbollah, which it sees as fundamental threats around it. Iran, on the other hand, initially aimed to neutralize potential threats from afar for the country's forward defense and to gain a geopolitical advantage against Sunni Islamic states.'
How does Nasrallah's death affect Israel's military strategy and politics?
Dr. Fehmi Ağca noted that almost the entire upper echelon of Hezbollah has been eliminated through Israeli assassination attacks, and he continued:
'Although Hezbollah spokesmen declare that they will continue the resistance, it cannot be said that their attacks and actions against Israel so far have been very effective. Nasrallah's death has strengthened Israel's hand, and it is assessed that Israel will continue to intensify its attacks on Lebanon with US weapons and ammunition support, occupying Southern Lebanon up to the Litani River. The Litani River constitutes a natural geographical barrier and defense line against possible Hezbollah attacks from the north. After reaching this line, Israel, after a new situation assessment, could implement an offensive strategy northwards in two directions. The first direction is, following sufficient preparation and accumulation, to continue the offensive northwards and occupy all of Lebanon. Lebanon has a very rugged and mountainous geography, and a large-scale ground operation north of the Litani River is assessed to cause very heavy losses to the Israeli army and lead to complete failure. Therefore, it is assessed that Israel would prefer not to occupy all of Lebanon through a ground offensive but rather to destroy targets in Lebanon with fire from land and air and keep them under pressure.'
The plan to seize Syrian territories up to the Euphrates River…
Dr. Fehmi Ağca also stated that the second direction is to occupy Syrian territories up to the Euphrates River with a rapid ground offensive from the east of Damascus via the Golan Heights, adding, 'Subsequently, it is to establish contact with the US-backed PYD terrorist organization. Possible resistance points in this direction have been made favorable for Israeli offensives during the Syrian civil war by the US using ISIS and similar terrorist organizations. Therefore, it is assessed that no significant resistance will be encountered in this direction. Most importantly, Israel's primary goal, the promised lands, i.e., Syrian territories up to the Euphrates River, will have been seized, thereby achieving religious and political objectives.'
What are the strategies of the US and other major powers in the region?
Dr. Fehmi Ağca explained that in important Western countries like the US, France, England, and Germany, financial markets are controlled by Jewish businessmen, and they have a strong influence over governments, which are political decision-making bodies. He stated, 'The US, with the support of other Western powers, wants to continue to keep the Middle East, the world's energy and transportation hub, under its control to maintain its global hegemony. Therefore, it is assessed that they will continue to unconditionally support Israel's existence and its military and political policies. Among other global powers, Russia's influence in the region is expected to remain limited due to the Ukraine War. On the other hand, Jewish businessmen have an important place in the Russian economy. It can be said that there is almost a tacit understanding between Russia and Israel. Russia's silence even on Israeli attacks near its Tartus Military Base in Syria confirms this. China, while supporting Iran, is focusing its military and political strategies on Taiwan. Consequently, it is assessed that the policies pursued by these countries will not be sufficient to prevent Israel's aggressive and occupying stance.'