Evaluating the political consequences of the helicopter crash in which Iranian President Raisi lost his life, Dr. Güler Kalay said, “I do not foresee the possibility of a political crisis emerging in the country.”
Dr. Güler Kalay, also stating that Raisi's death will not cause a radical policy change due to the influence of Religious Leader Khamenei on Iran's domestic and foreign policy, said, “The statement by Israel that they are not involved in the incident and Iran's emphasis on the possibility of an accident indicate that there is currently no situation that would increase tension in the region.”
Dr. Güler Kalay, Deputy Director of Üsküdar Üniversitesi Center for Strategic Research, evaluated the political consequences of the helicopter crash in which Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian lost their lives.
“I do not foresee the possibility of a political crisis emerging in the country”
Dr. Güler Kalay stated that the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi could be expected to create a short-term power vacuum in Iran's domestic politics, adding, “However, the regulations in the country's internal legislation show that this power vacuum will not be significant. A new election is expected to be held within 50 days, and in this process, Raisi's deputy, Mohammad Mokhber, is expected to assume the presidency in accordance with the Iranian Constitution. I do not foresee the possibility of a political crisis emerging in the country.”
What do the events that took place in the last two weeks tell us?
Reminding of the events that took place in the last two weeks, Dr. Güler Kalay continued:
“After the shooting of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico on May 15, 2024, the helicopter carrying Iranian President Raisi crashed on May 19. On the other hand, it is known that the Serbian President has received assassination threats; furthermore, claims regarding an assassination attempt against Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud on May 7, 2024, were reported in the press. When it comes to Slovakia, Iran, Serbia, and Saudi Arabia, the coincidence of these recent events and claims occurring in quick succession is viewed with skepticism.”
Iran emphasizes the possibility of an accident!
Dr. Kalay said, “We know that Fico opposed direct military aid and support to Ukraine by the US and Europe. On the other hand, considering the politically conflicted Israel-Iran relations amidst Israel's occupation in Gaza, the crash of the helicopter carrying Iranian President Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and East Azerbaijan Governor Malek Rahmati also leads us to question the possibility of an accident. In this context, we cannot ignore the possibility of Israeli special services being connected to the accident; however, Israel's statements denying involvement and Iran's focus on the possibility of an accident weaken this possibility.”
It is not correct to speak of a power vacuum or political crisis…
In addition to these, Dr. Güler Kalay, reminding of Raisi's recent statements about the need to create a currency within the BRICS framework, which is expected to weaken the global hegemony of the dollar, said:
“It is known that Iran's domestic and foreign policy is determined not only by the president but also by Religious Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and in this context, I do not believe that the crisis the country is currently facing will go beyond a power vacuum crisis. Moreover, the power vacuum will not last long, because what should be done in such cases is clearly stated in Article 131 of the Iranian Constitution. According to this article; if the president dies during his term, his deputy takes over the duty. In this regard, Mohammad Mokhber, who has served as the late Raisi's deputy since 2021, is expected to assume the presidency. Also, according to the Iranian Constitution, Mohammad Mokhber's term will last until the conclusion of a new election, which must be held within 50 days. In this situation, it would not be accurate to speak of a power vacuum or political crisis; we can consider it an interruption of the normal political process. With Religious Leader Khamenei's influence on Iran's domestic and foreign policy, the death of Ebrahim Raisi will not cause a radical policy change.”
Will US-Iran talks continue?
Reminding that Israel declared its non-involvement in the incident, while the Iranian side also emphasized the possibility of an accident, Dr. Kalay said, “US-Iran talks had partially begun recently; I believe this process will continue.”
Regarding whether the accident would change the balance of power in the Middle East, Dr. Kalay commented, “The most positive scenario would be for the incident to be determined as a complete accident by Iran and for Israel not to try to turn the resulting power vacuum and election process to its advantage. A worse scenario would be if Israel starts to act more proactively in the region, and if tensions with Iran escalate further, Tehran could harden its stance.”
Statement by Israel that they are not involved in the incident…
Dr. Kalay concluded by reminding that while President Erdoğan expressed his deep sorrow regarding the incident, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan posted on his official X account: “I share the deep sorrow of the friendly and brotherly Iranian people, I wish God's mercy upon those who lost their lives and offer my condolences to their grieving families. I fondly remember Abdullahian's contributions to further strengthening bilateral relations between our countries during this critical period our region is in, having had the opportunity to work closely with him.” Dr. Kalay added, “While the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan, China, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Belarus, and the President of the European Council conveyed their condolences and sorrow, Pakistan and Jordan declared a day of mourning. Hamas, on the other hand, regarded Raisi’s death as a 'loss'. The statement by Israel that they are not involved in the incident and Iran's emphasis on the possibility of an accident indicate that there is currently no situation that would increase tension in the region.”