Political Scientist Prof. Dr. Ozan Örmeci, evaluating the protests spreading across Iran in response to economic conditions and the high cost of living, as well as the casualties during this process, stated that the Iranian regime, despite its initially soft responses, has progressively become harsher.
Prof. Dr. Örmeci stated that the overthrow of the regime is not that easy due to Tehran's deep-rooted state tradition, adding, “However, if external powers like the USA and Israel directly intervene, events could develop in a different direction.”
Prof. Dr. Örmeci stated that Iran must first get rid of sanctions and focus on development, adding, “Furthermore, it might be appropriate for the regime to adopt a more liberal stance on issues such as women's clothing and the lives of young people.”
Prof. Dr. Ozan Örmeci, a faculty member at Üsküdar Üniversitesi, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Department of Political Science and International Relations, evaluated the protests spreading across Iran in response to economic conditions and the high cost of living, as well as the casualties experienced during this process.
The Devaluation of the Rial Significantly Reduced Purchasing Power
Prof. Dr. Ozan Örmeci, pointing out the difficulty of obtaining reliable information from the field and the serious internet restrictions implemented in the country, made significant observations regarding the starting point and trajectory of the protests.
“It Appears the Protests Initially Began with Economic Demands...”
Stating that the protests in Iran initially began with economic demands, Prof. Dr. Örmeci said, “Although it is difficult to obtain accurate information as it is not easy to get information from the field and there are currently significant internet restrictions in Iran, based on my discussions with Iran experts in Turkey and Northern Cyprus, it appears the protests began with economic demands. Citizens, whose purchasing power has significantly decreased, especially due to the devaluation of the Iranian currency, the rial, have begun to react against the regime.”
The Economically-Based Reaction Gained Political Character...
Prof. Dr. Örmeci emphasized that the economically-based reactions gradually acquired a political character, stating, “These reactions developed around themes such as women's freedoms, relations with different ethnic and religious groups, and the aggressive activism of young people with low living standards, which are traditional problems of Iran’s Mullah regime. Although the regime initially prohibited the use of weapons, mutual violence eventually began, and it has been reported that the death toll in the incidents has exceeded 500.”
Youth and Women Always at the Forefront of Protests
Prof. Dr. Örmeci drew attention to the protest culture in Iran, stating:
“When we examine the Green Movement period and the Mahsa Amini protests, it is known that young people and women participated very intensely in the protests in Iran, and even if events were not organized, a population ready to erupt due to general dissatisfaction with the regime constantly exists in Iran. This time, with the addition of shopkeepers tired of economic difficulties to these traditional opposition groups, the ground for the rapid escalation of events was set, and demonstrations saw broader participation. Furthermore, when it was understood that protesters were using social media platforms to communicate and organize, significant restrictions were imposed in this regard, and American businessman Elon Musk sent Starlink satellites to support opponents in Iran. Over time, due to state measures, all internet access in Iran was cut off. In this context, provocations by foreign states are naturally effective in such processes, as we recently witnessed Israel and the USA conducting operations within Iran.”
Overthrowing the Regime is Not So Easy in Iran, a Country with a Deep-Rooted State Tradition!
Stating that the Iranian regime, despite its initially soft responses, has progressively become harsher and aims to violently suppress protesters using force, Prof. Dr. Örmeci said, “This is a valid situation in Iran, an authoritarian system of governance like all regimes, and the spontaneous disappearance of state authority due to internal dynamics and the overthrow of the regime – due to Tehran's deep-rooted state tradition – is not that easy. However, if external powers like the USA and Israel directly intervene, events could develop in a different direction.”
Regime's Legitimacy is Shaken But Not Entirely Lost
Prof. Dr. Örmeci, also evaluating the impact of the protests on the regime's legitimacy, stated, “The regime is vehemently criticized for themes such as corruption, inefficient use of economic resources, prohibitionism, a system of incompetence based on nepotism, ineptitude, and its inability to establish good relations with powerful and potentially dangerous states like the USA, thereby putting the Iranian people in a difficult situation. The culture of protest and rebellion is very strong among the Iranian people, and the Islamists who capitalized on this in 1979 are now complaining about it. The protests seriously shake the regime’s legitimacy, but there is no concrete data yet indicating that legitimacy has been completely lost. This is because it is not easy for the Iranian people, who have been exposed to anti-Shah propaganda for approximately 50 years through all the state’s ideological apparatuses, to adapt to a new paradigm from scratch.”
US Perception is Changing in Iran
Prof. Dr. Örmeci, commenting on the impact of potential US intervention on the protests, stated, “While the USA, especially under the Donald Trump administration, was traditionally an object of hatred in Iran, even 'the Great Satan' as Khomeini put it, due to the regime's propaganda efforts, in recent years, as socioeconomic, political, and security problems deepened in the country, it has begun to become an external power viewed favorably, especially by the youth. Similarly, external and internal support for Reza Pahlavi, son of the overthrown Shah Pahlavi, has been observed to increase recently. Although access from Iran to Western statements is limited, due to Iran having a large diaspora community living abroad, and these generally being anti-regime, external reactions are also being channeled internally.”
Regime Change is Difficult, Instability May Continue
Emphasizing that it is difficult for the protests to result in regime change in the short term, Prof. Dr. Örmeci made the following assessment:
“There is not enough concrete information and data to predict whether these protests will change the regime in Iran. However, based on previous experiences, I can foresee that the regime will remain in place and that the protests will weaken over time, both through suppression by security forces and through dwindling. This, undoubtedly, does not mean that Iran’s problems are resolved and indicates that the country’s unstable governance will continue. For Tehran to make progress on this issue, it needs to get rid of at least some of the US sanctions, and for that, it must focus on development instead of its nuclear program.”
"Transformation of the Regime Through Reform is a More Acceptable Option for Ankara"
Prof. Dr. Örmeci stated that Iran must first get rid of sanctions and focus on development, adding, “Furthermore, it might be appropriate for the regime to adopt a more liberal stance on issues such as women's clothing and the lives of young people. However, regimes based on such rigid ideologies, interestingly, can enter a process of collapse as they make concessions. Therefore, considering China's experience in the 1980s, it would be appropriate to ensure public order and security at a time when events disrupt daily life, and subsequently initiate the development process. For Turkey, developments in Iran are also critical, and the transformation of the regime through reform rather than revolution is a more acceptable option for Ankara. However, carrying out these reforms in an environment where the necessary civil society channels to connect with the public are absent is not an easy task.”