Finland and Sweden have officially applied for NATO membership. Political scientist Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan stated that with the attack on Ukraine, Turkey has seized an opportunity to regain its position in global politics, which it had lost in the last 10 years, adding, “Turkey has also become one of the important actors regarding Finland and Sweden's NATO membership.” Arslan stated that Turkey's negative stance on their membership, due to these states supporting terrorism in an organization where decisions are made by consensus, indicates that the process will be difficult, adding, “It is probable that Turkey, with its justified rhetoric, will bring the issue to the negotiation table.”
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan, Head of the English Department of Political Science and International Relations at Üsküdar Üniversitesi Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, evaluated Finland and Sweden's official application for NATO membership.
Ukraine crisis disrupted geopolitical balance in Europe
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan said, “Russia responded to the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO, which is part of the USA's plans to completely detach Europe from Russia, with the invasion of Ukraine. After the Ukraine crisis, the biggest struggle between the Atlantic and Eurasia since World War II, Europe's geopolitical balance was disrupted, and a process of reshaping Europe's entire security landscape began.”
Support for joining the alliance rose to 75% in both countries
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan noted that the Western media created a significant climate of fear during this period, stating, “The public support for joining the alliance in these two countries rose from 25 percent two months ago to 75 percent today. As a result, Sweden (for 200 years) and Finland (since 1948), which had long considered themselves neutral, abandoned their neutrality policies and officially applied for NATO membership on May 18, 2022.”
Both countries are neighbors of Russia
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan stated that the decision is expected to be announced in May, adding, “The two countries, which became EU members in 1995, are also Russia's two northwestern neighbors. Sweden has no border with Russia; Finland shares a 1340-kilometer land border.”
NATO transformed into a 30-member alliance
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan stated that NATO, which was a 12-member military alliance organization in 1949, continued its expansion eastward and southward, transforming into a 30-member alliance today with the participation of former Soviet countries after 1990.
Russia views NATO's expansion as a security threat
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan noted that Russia views NATO's expansion towards its borders as a security threat, stating, “There are dense Russian nuclear weapons and submarines in the Baltic and Arctic. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov used the expressions, ‘Sweden and Finland's NATO initiatives are a big mistake with severe consequences. It is very clear from our perspective that the security of both countries will not be strengthened as a result of this decision. This decision should not be thought of as receiving a simple reaction from us. The level of military tension will increase.’ ”
Turkey can bring the issue to the negotiation table
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan emphasized that Turkey, which seized an opportunity to regain its position in global politics in the last 10 years with the attack on Ukraine, has also become one of the important actors regarding Finland and Sweden's NATO membership, and stated the following:
“Turkey's negative approach to their membership, due to states supporting terrorism in an organization where decisions are made by consensus, indicates that the process will be challenging. It is probable that Turkey, with its justified rhetoric, will bring the issue to the negotiation table. However, there are two important pitfalls to avoid. The first is for Turkey to address Finland and Sweden together in its discourse, and the other is to conduct negotiations loudly. Unlike Turkey-Sweden relations, in Turkey-Finland relations, dialogue and cooperation between the states are higher due to similar security concerns arising from both countries being flank states.”
Turkey has no problem with NATO
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan emphasized that it is understandable for Turkey to express its views and make demands regarding counter-terrorism and national security issues during the membership process, stating, “However, presenting the issue as a problem between Turkey and NATO could undermine Turkey-NATO relations. Yet, Turkey has no problem with NATO. Turkey's move is not to prevent NATO's expansion, but to eliminate the terrorist threat coming from Syria and Iraq. Finland, and especially Sweden, support these organizations which pose a threat to Turkey's national security and integrity, and most European states and the USA also embrace them. This is Turkey's fundamental issue.”