In the shadow of the Russia-Ukraine War, the future of Turkey-European Union (EU) relations is being discussed. Experts state that the war has changed the EU's priorities, and this situation could signal a new era in relations with Turkey.
Political Scientist Prof. Dr. Nergiz Özkural Köroğlu, stating that Turkey's critical importance for Europe in terms of military capacity and security cannot be overlooked, said, “In this conjuncture where security concerns and geopolitical anxieties have come to the forefront in the EU's enlargement strategy, the idea of including Turkey in the EU could strengthen in the short term.”
Prof. Dr. Nergiz Özkural Köroğlu: “Turkey can only accept a membership model within the framework of a 'win-win' scenario where mutual interests are observed with the EU.”
Prof. Dr. Nergiz Özkural Köroğlu, Head of the Political Science and International Relations Department at Üsküdar Üniversitesi, made important assessments regarding the future of Turkey-EU relations.
Reflection of the Russia-Ukraine War Should Be Examined
Prof. Dr. Nergiz Özkural Köroğlu, pointing out that it is necessary to examine the reflection of the Russia-Ukraine war on these relations to evaluate the future of Turkey-European Union (EU), said, “EU-Turkey relations have been built on three pillars from the outset. The first is the international conjuncture, the second is the progression of the EU's own internal politics, and the third is the direction in which Turkish political life is evolving. When these processes are viewed in parallel, understanding EU-Turkey relations becomes much more important. However, it should also be noted that sometimes the first, and sometimes the other pillars, may come to the fore in determining relations.”
War Highlighted EU's Security Concerns
Prof. Dr. Nergiz Özkural Köroğlu, evaluating the EU's decision to start negotiations with Ukraine, stated, “Looking at today's international conjuncture, the official start of negotiations with a country still at war, Ukraine, on December 23, 2024, by setting aside the Copenhagen criteria and its fundamental values based on peace, demonstrates that the EU prioritizes international conjunctural dynamics and geopolitical security concerns in its enlargement policy. The initiation of negotiations with Moldova, in addition to Ukraine, and the granting of EU candidate status to Georgia, a non-European country, are further indicators of how the EU has shifted its direction regarding enlargement.”
EU's Internal Politics are Also Changing
Prof. Dr. Nergiz Özkural Köroğlu explained that looking at the trends in the EU's internal politics, it can be seen that it has continued its path without the UK after the Brexit process, and continued:
“Furthermore, it is observed that the EU, which has been struggling with the Euro crisis since 2008, has experienced more challenging economic conditions after the Covid-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war. The EU has not signed a new treaty since the 2007 Lisbon Treaty. In the event of a possible new wave of enlargement, the path to institutional deepening is also an important topic of discussion. In this context, it seems inevitable to develop a model where the EU adopts one of its differentiated integration models, with founding countries at the center and countries joining with enlargement having different rights and initiatives in the outer circles. This is because, historically, the EU has signed a treaty after each enlargement process to align its policies with its new structure, yet no such step has been taken for a long time.”
Turkey's Importance is Growing
Prof. Dr. Nergiz Özkural Köroğlu emphasized that a different prognosis seems likely to emerge for Turkey, which has been in the negotiation phase for the last twenty years, following the changing international conjuncture and the EU's varied orientations in its enlargement-deepening processes, and noted the following:
“Turkey's significant geopolitical position, especially in the Black Sea region, its balanced foreign relations with Russia and Ukraine, its transit country status on energy routes, and its role as a bridge on important trade routes like the ancient Silk Road make it valuable. Furthermore, Turkey's military capacity and critical importance for Europe in the context of security cannot be overlooked. Despite Turkey's full potential and the possibility of the EU reshaping, it can still be said that Turkey, with its population of over 80 million and economic needs, is a challenging country in terms of the EU's absorption capacity. However, in this conjuncture where security concerns and geopolitical anxieties have come to the forefront in the EU's enlargement strategy, the idea of including Turkey in the EU could strengthen in the short term.”
Turkey Can Only Accept a Membership Model with a 'Win-Win' Scenario
Prof. Dr. Nergiz Özkural Köroğlu stated that if the EU adopts an integration model in the form of 'concentric circles,' it is likely that different membership statuses (such as 1st class, 2nd class, 3rd class) will emerge. “In this case, Turkey, like Ukraine, might find itself with a membership model where it is in the outer circle, not directly participating in policy-making processes, but gaining visa liberalization under certain conditions and cooperating in the field of security. Turkey, pursuing a more proactive and multi-faceted foreign policy and progressing towards becoming an important regional power, can only accept such a membership model with the EU within the framework of a 'win-win' scenario where mutual interests are observed. In this context, the concessions and rights granted to Turkey will be a determining factor. Turkey has had EU candidate status since 1999 and has maintained its relationship with the EU for over 60 years since the signing of the Ankara Agreement in 1963. Due to this long history, Turkey's expectations from the EU are quite high. A third-class EU membership with limited concessions would not bring a significant advantage for Turkey.”
Poland's Presidency Could Create an Opportunity
Prof. Dr. Nergiz Özkural Köroğlu reminded that Poland, one of the former Soviet Union countries, will hold the EU presidency in January 2025, and concluded her words by saying, “Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a country that closely feels the threat from Russia with a land border with Ukraine, warned about the impending danger in a February speech before the tense meeting between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office, stating, ‘If the EU does not prepare its own action plan on the security of Ukraine and the region, global actors will decide our future.’ During Poland's EU Presidency, which addresses security concerns as a priority agenda item, effectively evaluating the positive atmosphere observed in EU-Turkey relations is of strategic importance for Turkish foreign policy.”