Evaluating the attack on the concert hall in Moscow, Dr. Güler Kalay, Deputy Director of the Center for Strategic Research (ÜSSAM), said, “The Moscow concert attack recalled the 2002 theater raid. It's as if someone wants to take Russia back to those years.”
Dr. Güler Kalay: “This terrorist attack could be a provocation attack disguised with the makeup of Islamic radicalism.”
Dr. Güler Kalay, Deputy Director of Üsküdar University Center for Strategic Research (ÜSSAM), evaluated the attack on a concert hall in Moscow that resulted in the deaths of dozens of people.
“It's as if someone wants to take Russia back to those years”
Dr. Güler Kalay said, “The Moscow concert attack recalled the 2002 theater raid. It's as if someone wants to take Russia back to those years. The words of bureaucrat Sergei Miranov, a member of the Russian State Duma, 'We need to take precautions in schools, kindergartens, hospitals, and places where many people are present,' are actually a reference to similar events in the past. Such acts of terror are quite vivid in the collective memory of Russian society regarding the recent past. Not only the theater raid, but also the 2004 Beslan School siege is one of the pains revived in memory by this latest terror event.”
“It could be a provocation attack”
Dr. Güler Kalay also evaluated eyewitness statements suggesting the attackers had a jihadist appearance and ISIS's claim of responsibility for the attack, saying, “However, considering that there is no serious ISIS threat today, unlike twenty years ago, the 2024 Crocus terror attack could be a provocation attack disguised with the makeup of Islamic radicalism. Moreover, it is known that Russia currently has no problems with the Muslim geography.”
“It is highly probable that the main issue is related to the conflict with Ukraine”
In this situation, Dr. Güler Kalay also drew attention to the questions of who or what wants to provoke Russia, or who would benefit from Russia's destabilization, and continued:
“First, Putin's re-election as president based on the results of the March 15 elections suggests that the attacks could aim to discredit Putin's government, but it is highly probable that the main issue is related to the conflict with Ukraine. The West's generosity regarding the financial support and military ammunition Ukraine needs is no longer as bountiful as last year. Russia's destabilization could lead to a reconsideration of Ukraine's aid requests.”
“Russian Foreign Ministry urged Washington to share all information they have”
On the other hand, Dr. Güler Kalay also pointed out that Russia might directly consider Ukraine responsible for this incident and retaliate with a hasty decision, stating, “In such a scenario, Ukraine's aid requests could also be re-evaluated with Ukraine playing the role of a victim. It is known that in its war with Russia, Ukraine has recently been more proactive and carrying out direct attacks on Russian territory. This also shows an attempt by Ukraine to strike Russia using all available means in a war it is losing. Following the White House's statement that they had no information about Ukraine's involvement in the attack, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova urged Washington to share all information they have.”
Will the attacks weaken Putin’s government?
“I do not think the attack will weaken Putin's government; such terror attacks tend to increase reactions against foreigners in Russian society rather than criticism towards the government,” said Political Psychology Expert Dr. Güler Kalay, adding that during Putin's presidency, many terror incidents occurred, and public trust in Putin never diminished, but rather increased each time.
“The Kremlin will not act without in-depth intelligence”
Dr. Güler Kalay concluded her remarks as follows:
“It also seems unlikely for the Kremlin to direct attention towards Ukrainian authorities and launch a sudden and unplanned counter-retaliation. Just as in the assassination attempt on Dugin's daughter or subsequent attacks, the Kremlin will not act without in-depth intelligence. The known composure of Russians and their calmness in the face of such events have usually led to a larger counter-attack later. In relation to this event, it can be predicted that Moscow will implement deep intelligence gathering and subsequently stricter security measures to prevent the reoccurrence of past traumas. Especially against foreigners.”