Evaluating the results of the March 31, 2024 Local Administrative General Election, Political Scientist Assistant Professor Dr. Fehmi Ağca, Director of PAMER, stated that voter turnout was approximately 8 percent lower compared to other elections, saying, “It is considered a strong possibility that a large portion of those who did not participate in the election were disgruntled voters of the ruling party. This situation is assessed to have affected the election results.”
Analyzing that the living conditions of retirees, in particular, were significantly negatively affected during the past 2-3 year period, Assistant Professor Dr. Fehmi Ağca commented, “These election results should be seen as a serious warning from its own constituents to the AK Party.”
Assistant Professor Dr. Fehmi Ağca: “It is evaluated that the performance of the CHP, which won the majority of mayoralties, will play a significant role in shaping voter trends over the next 4 years.”
Assistant Professor Dr. Fehmi Ağca, Director of the Üsküdar Üniversitesi Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Department of Political Science and International Relations (English) and Postcolonial Studies Application and Research Center (PAMER), evaluated the results of the March 31, 2024 Local Administrative General Election.
Disgruntled ruling party voters who did not participate in the election…
Noting that voter turnout was approximately 8 percent lower compared to other elections, Assistant Professor Dr. Fehmi Ağca said, “It is considered a strong possibility that a large portion of those who did not participate in the election were disgruntled voters of the ruling party. This situation is evaluated to have affected the election results. In the past 2-3 years, the living conditions of retired citizens, in particular, have been significantly negatively affected. It can be said that the ruling party's failure to take fair and effective measures in a timely manner on this issue affected the election results.”
Who did DEM and İYİ Party voters cast their ballots for?
Stating that the most significant factor influencing the election results was the support of DEM Party and İYİ Party voters for the Republican People's Party (CHP), Assistant Professor Dr. Fehmi Ağca evaluated, “Compared to the May 2023 parliamentary elections, DEM Party's vote in these elections dropped from 9 percent to 5.6 percent. Approximately 4.6 percent of votes from here directly went to the CHP. İYİ Party's vote, which was 9.9 percent, fell to 3.7 percent. Approximately 6.2 percent of votes from this party also went to the CHP. A total of 10.8 percent of votes from these two parties appear to have shifted to the CHP.”
Between which parties did votes shift?
Reminding that the CHP's vote in May 2023 was 25.80 percent, Assistant Professor Dr. Fehmi Ağca analyzed, “With the votes coming from these two parties, it already reaches approximately 36.6 percent of the vote. The remaining approximately 1 percent increase in votes can be attributed to factors such as the CHP being more successful in candidate selection and effectively utilizing economic issues in its election campaigns. The main opposition party's actual vote appears to be around 27 percent (37.74 - 10.8 = 27 percent). This vote is close to the CHP's traditional vote. The CHP managed to form a fairly effective and successful election alliance, either covertly or overtly, with DEM and İYİ Party. On the other hand, the Yeniden Refah Party's increase in votes from 2.9 percent to 6.2 percent indicates that it garnered approximately 3.4 percent of votes from the AK Party. The AK Party's vote, which was 36.30 percent in the May 2023 parliamentary elections, falling to 35.5 percent in the 2024 local elections can be considered an expected outcome under these circumstances.”
Ruling party fatigue influential in the results…
Assistant Professor Dr. Fehmi Ağca concluded his assessments by pointing out that the outcome could have been different if the AK Party had been able to determine a correct election campaign and strategy before the elections, stating:
“The lack of realistic public opinion research regarding the Yeniden Refah Party's vote potential prevented an election alliance with this party. Consequently, it is assessed that the AK Party's 22 years of governing fatigue, mistakes made in candidate selection, inability to correctly determine an election strategy, and most importantly, the AK Party's inability to mobilize its own voters and effectively bring them to the polls, were influential in the election results. These election results should be seen as a serious warning from its own constituents to the AK Party. The AK Party can regain the support of the majority of voters, as it did in the past, through correct and successful policies it implements until 2028. It is assessed that the performance of the CHP, which won the majority of mayoralties, will play a significant role in shaping voter trends over the next 4 years.”
