Ahead of the ‘Conference of the Parties,’ also known as the ‘2023 Climate Change Conference COP28,’ which is held annually in a different country and will take place in Dubai this year from November 30 to December 12, 2023, the ‘COP28: Progress or Regression?’ report, spearheaded by Üsküdar University Environmental Ethics Forum, was introduced in New York. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Özdemir, one of the authors of the report, stated, “This report invites delegates and campaigners to prioritize action at this high-stakes moment and focus their efforts on negotiating a robust global climate agreement at the UN climate talks in Dubai.”
Prof. Dr. İbrahim Özdemir, Director of Üsküdar University Environmental Ethics Forum, who attended the reception held within the framework of events at the UN in New York, introduced the COP28: Progress or Regression? Report, prepared under the leadership of Üsküdar University Environmental Ethics Forum.
Prof. Dr. İbrahim Özdemir, Director of Üsküdar University Environmental Ethics Forum, highlighted the notable aspects of the ‘COP28: Progress or Regression?’ report, explaining that it is a joint publication of Üsküdar University Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences and the Caribbean ASEAN Council, and was also prepared by participants from the Commonwealth of Dominica, Nigeria, Kenya, Chad, Gambia, and Bangladesh.
Reminding that the Conference of the Parties (COP) is the main decision-making body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Prof. Dr. Özdemir stated that it serves as a forum where representatives of the 197 countries that signed the Convention come together to assess progress and make decisions regarding measures to address the urgency of climate issues.
Are global climate negotiations effective for change?
Prof. Dr. Özdemir also noted that over the past two decades, COPs have grown exponentially, evolving from small working sessions into large annual conferences, and reminded that there are ongoing debates about whether global climate negotiations are truly an effective method for change.
Prof. Dr. Özdemir said, “Some claim that these conferences ‘are all talk and no action.’ However, with a climate catastrophe dangerously approaching, COPs can help move the needle in our global response and accelerate things in the right direction.”
Explaining that with the United Arab Emirates taking over the presidency at COP28, expectations are high, alongside growing concerns about whether its agenda is sufficiently transformative, Prof. Dr. Özdemir continued:
“With the UAE Presidency putting forth an ambitious plan for this year’s conference, can COP28 truly have the potential to be a turning point for climate action? To answer this question, it will be useful to place the promises made by the Incoming Presidency in the broader context of past climate summits. Specifically, this report brings together the expertise and views of environmental and development experts from a wide range of Global South countries in the form of a comparative analysis of the last five UN COP climate agendas and their implementation.”
Goal: Reducing emissions, increasing investments in green energy projects
Prof. Dr. Özdemir stated that the analysis points to the policy intervention area related to emission reduction, renewable energy targets, and climate finance. He also noted that the steps taken by each COP Presidency to facilitate the outlined agenda during its tenure were highlighted, emphasizing efforts to reduce emissions, increase investments in green energy projects, and mobilize funds for climate action, where applicable.
Prof. Dr. Özdemir explained the reason for bringing together environmental and development academics and practitioners as: “Concerns that the prevailing discourse on environmental issues in certain circles in the US, UK, and Europe risks derailing the COP28 climate summit at a time when we desperately need a robust global climate agreement.”
Fossil fuel lobbying concerns
Prof. Dr. Özdemir also underscored that legitimate concerns regarding fossil fuel lobbying do not take into account the challenges developing countries face in their struggles to industrialize and achieve prosperity levels, and stated:
“Our concern is that this situation, despite all sincerity, leads to unbalanced and highly polarized approaches that will undermine efforts to combat climate change. Because energy sources such as coal, oil, and natural gas were relatively affordable and accessible throughout much of the twentieth century and early twenty-first century, Western countries relied on them to improve living conditions, create employment, and achieve much-needed industrialization and economic development to be globally competitive. While renewable energies are environmentally friendly, they have high initial investment costs. However, the installation and infrastructure required for these initiatives, such as solar panels, wind turbines, battery storage, and hydroelectric facilities, often pose a significant financial burden for developing countries, regardless of their desire to transition to clean energy.”
Many industrial giants criticize latecomers to the industrial development race
Prof. Dr. Özdemir also expressed that it is ironic for developing countries, whether oil exporters or importers, to pursue the same development goals that Western countries followed in the past, stating, “Many industrial giants who recklessly engaged in fossil fuel-powered and environmentally damaging activities to reach their current positions are quick to criticize latecomers to the industrial development race for doing the same.”
Reminding that the UAE's presidency of this year's COP28 climate summit has been a subject of debate, Prof. Dr. Özdemir stated, “This situation, given how close the world is to exceeding the safe upper limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius to prevent dangerous global warming enshrined in the Paris Agreement, has undoubtedly led to widespread disappointment regarding the expectations for what are arguably the most historically significant climate talks to date.”
Prof. Dr. Özdemir emphasized that COP28's stated vision should be bolder than ever, resolving issues left open-ended in previous climate summits by adopting a highly ambitious, forward-looking, and action-oriented agenda where the idea of 'system transformation' is repeatedly highlighted as a core objective, and noted the following.
Annual $100 billion climate finance target…
“The UAE's COP28 Presidency aims to finally achieve the annual $100 billion climate finance target promised by developed countries, renew the pledge to double adaptation finance by 2025, and operationalize the loss and damage fund to provide much-needed funds to vulnerable countries facing the worst impacts of climate action. For the first time, a COP presidency also aims to secure concrete agreements on the widespread deployment of renewable energy, the phased reduction of fossil fuels, and the phased elimination of unabated fossil fuels. Furthermore, the complete transformation of the current climate finance landscape is planned to make trillions of dollars of investment available to developing countries.”
High expectations from talks to be held in Dubai
Prof. Dr. İbrahim Özdemir, a faculty member at Üsküdar University Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, said that the findings of this report indicate that, despite legitimate concerns regarding the adequacy of measures proposed by the COP28 Presidency and the role of the oil industries in shaping the agenda, it still remains the most ambitious COP agenda in history.
Prof. Dr. Özdemir also provided the following information regarding the report:
“Specifically, we found that if the key targets for emissions, renewable energy, and climate finance are met at the UN talks in Dubai in December 2023, it will fundamentally accelerate policy change where urgent transformation is needed. Therefore, the atmosphere of defeat and disappointment culminating ahead of COP28 is ultimately causing a dangerous diversion from what is a historic opportunity. This report invites delegates and campaigners to prioritize action at this high-stakes moment and focus their efforts on negotiating a robust global climate agreement at the UN climate talks in Dubai.”
For the ‘COP28: Progress or Regression?’ report: