The event was attended by Üsküdar Üniversitesi Emergency and Disaster Management Lecturer Ayşe Aydemir Yıldırım as a guest speaker. Yıldırım stated that earthquakes can be prevented from turning into disasters through individual and societal preparation; “We cannot prevent these earthquakes, but we can prevent them from turning into disasters. We can achieve this by preparing individually and societally. We may not be able to prevent earthquakes, but we can prevent them from turning into disasters.” she said.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Mesut Karahan, Director of SHMYO (Vocational School of Health Services), and SHMYO Assistant Directors Dr. Lect. Üyesi Ömer Faruk Karasakal and Dr. Lect. Üyesi Salih Tuncay attended the event held within the scope of the University Culture course.
“This earthquake will not be the biggest disaster we have experienced”
At the hybrid event held in the Çarşı Campus Emirnebi 1 Conference Hall, Üsküdar Üniversitesi Emergency and Disaster Management Lecturer Ayşe Aydemir Yıldırım drew attention to the need to learn lessons from the disasters we have experienced as soon as possible and transition to a risk-focused disaster management system.
Yıldırım; “In the past, we used to talk about the Erzincan earthquake as the biggest disaster we experienced in Turkey. It was magnitude 7.9, and approximately 33,000 people lost their lives in the Erzincan earthquake. Then we experienced the 1999 Marmara earthquake, and approximately 18,000 people lost their lives, and a great number of our buildings collapsed. Now, the Kahramanmaraş earthquake, which is the biggest disaster we have experienced in Turkey throughout the Republican era, has occurred. Unfortunately, I regret to say that this will not be the biggest disaster we experience. As we all know, we are expecting a major Istanbul earthquake. Therefore, we need to learn lessons from these disasters as soon as possible, heal our wounds, and transition to a risk-focused disaster management system.” she said.
“We can prevent earthquakes from turning into disasters”
Emergency aid and disaster management expert Lecturer Ayşe Aydemir Yıldırım stated that while earthquakes cannot be prevented, they can be prevented from turning into disasters. Yıldırım; “Earthquakes are natural phenomena that cannot be prevented from occurring. We cannot stop earthquakes; we cannot prevent this natural event from happening. Unfortunately, we cannot predict when, where, or what magnitude an earthquake will occur. Sadly, despite all technological advancements, early warning for earthquake disasters is not yet possible. Therefore, we must prepare as if an earthquake could happen at any moment. Not every earthquake is a disaster. For earthquakes to be classified as disasters, very serious consequences must occur. Earthquakes that result in deaths and injuries, the collapse of buildings, or severe damage to buildings are considered disasters.
We cannot prevent these earthquakes from happening, but we can prevent them from turning into disasters. We can only achieve this by preparing individually and societally. We may not be able to prevent earthquakes, but we can prevent them from turning into disasters.” she said.
“We have no preparation, neither individually nor societally”
Underlining that the probability of the expected major Istanbul earthquake is determined by experts to be 62%, Yıldırım addressed the lack of individual and societal preparation. Yıldırım; “The provinces in Turkey are surrounded by faults like a spiderweb. We are expecting a major Istanbul earthquake. The longest fault line is the North Anatolian Fault, extending to Istanbul. So why is a major Istanbul earthquake expected? We experienced the last Marmara earthquake in 1999, and geological engineers state that these earthquakes will recur every 30 years. 22 years have passed since the '99 earthquake. No major earthquake has occurred, 8 years remain… Currently, geological engineers predict; ‘Right now, at this very moment, the probability of an earthquake in Istanbul is 62%.’ This is a significantly high rate. Even if we flip a coin, the probability of heads is 50%, which is a high probability, yet unfortunately, the probability of an earthquake right now is 62%. We know this, experts are telling us, but are we preparing? Unfortunately, we have no preparation, neither individually nor societally.” she stated.
“Search and rescue workers are also potential disaster victims”
Yıldırım shared the post-earthquake prediction analyses prepared by Kandilli Observatory with the participants; “An earthquake of magnitude between 7 and 7.5 is expected in the Marmara Sea. What I will mention is a prediction scenario prepared by Kandilli Observatory. What will happen in Istanbul if a 7.5 magnitude earthquake occurs? Approximately 50-60 thousand heavily damaged buildings will collapse. There will be an estimated 500-600 thousand homeless people, 70-90 thousand casualties along with severely injured individuals, problems in infrastructure systems such as electricity, water, and natural gas, and an estimated financial loss of 50 billion dollars. Furthermore, it is estimated that approximately 1 million search and rescue workers will be needed if a major earthquake occurs in Istanbul. Unfortunately, there are not 1 million search and rescue workers in Turkey, and when we look at it, search and rescue workers are also potential disaster victims. We need to become aware individually and as a society and quickly move into the preparation process without leaving the work to them.” she said.
“I recommend the YOTA work”
Lecturer Ayşe Aydemir Yıldırım drew attention to what needs to be done before an earthquake. Yıldırım; “There are things we can do before an earthquake. We can prepare for an earthquake by preparing a disaster kit, questioning whether the building is sound, having it checked by experts, preparing a family disaster plan, organizing and participating in drills. At the same time, we can safely arrange the items in our home and conduct damage reduction efforts for hazards in our home by securing dangerous items. In this context, I recommend the YOTA work. YOTA work is the 'Reduction of Non-Structural Hazards' work. What I mean by non-structural hazards are the items inside our home. We can do such YOTA work in our home by safely arranging and securing the items in our home,' she said.
“Everyone should learn to survive for 3 days”
Yıldırım stated that during the golden hours, everyone is on their own, and everyone needs to take precautions to survive for three days; “When an earthquake occurs, search and rescue teams, AFAD, and healthcare workers will not be able to reach you immediately. The first 72 hours are considered the golden hours in disaster management. During the golden hours, everyone is on their own. Therefore, everyone will learn to survive for three days. Additionally, preparing a disaster kit is very valuable. You must include enough food, water, and first aid supplies in your disaster kit to survive for the first three days. In your disaster kit; if you have a child, you can include activity materials for them, and create a hygiene package with items like wet wipes, toilet paper, toothbrush, and toothpaste. A flashlight, batteries, and a radio must be included. Water and food sufficient for 72 hours should be placed. Here you can prefer long-lasting and energy-giving canned foods. Spare keys and health records should also be included. Season-appropriate clothes and a blanket must also be put in the disaster kit. It is important to update the disaster kit every 6 months and change the clothes. Cash must be included. A first aid kit in the disaster bag is very, very important. We can prepare our disaster kit by also including a whistle, protective equipment, and a family plan.” she said.
Basic behavior to be performed during an earthquake: “Drop, Cover, Hold On”
Yıldırım stated that trying to evacuate during an earthquake puts human lives at risk; “During an earthquake, we need to perform the ‘Drop, Cover, Hold On’ behavior calmly without panicking. Before the earthquake, we should identify safe places, such as next to a sofa, table, or our bed, then drop, cover our head and neck to protect them, and hold on with one hand to prevent falling. That is, the ‘Drop, Cover, Hold On’ behavior is the fundamental action to take during an earthquake. In other words, it is the fetal position. So, by making ourselves smaller, we are also reducing our target. When an earthquake occurs, we will definitely not run, we will not panic, we will stay away from doors, windows, and stairs, because when an earthquake happens, the first places to collapse are the stairs. They have no load-bearing properties. Therefore, trying to evacuate means putting our lives at risk.” she said.
“We also need to be cautious against aftershocks”
Yıldırım noted that aftershocks sometimes last for months, sometimes even years; “After an earthquake, we need to check if we or those around us have any injuries. We have already put the first aid kit in the disaster bag. We need to provide first aid to ourselves and those around us with the first aid supplies we have placed. Aftershocks continue after an earthquake. Aftershocks sometimes last for months, sometimes even years. We definitely need to be cautious against aftershocks. We must follow emergency instructions from a battery-powered radio. We will listen to the warnings. After the disaster, we need to stay away from collapsed electricity poles, trees, and high-rise buildings, and please do not tie up phone lines. People are worried about their acquaintances, but this makes the job difficult for the disaster victims and the search and rescue personnel working there.” she said.
To watch the event again: (The recording of the event will be shared on the SHMYO announcement page)