International Relations Expert Assoc. Prof. İbrahim Arslan, evaluating Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's amnesty decision and the issue of Syrian refugees in Turkey, said, “The return of Syrian refugees in Turkey to their country is a humanitarian issue with internal and external political dimensions for both Turkey and Syria.”
Assoc. Prof. İbrahim Arslan reminded that a large portion of Syrian refugees in Turkey are there due to opposition to the regime or regime pressure, and stated, “These individuals must be convinced that upon their return to their country, their own and their relatives' safety will be ensured, they will not encounter difficulties in accessing public services, their property owned before the civil unrest will be returned, and they will not face any pressure from the Syrian administration regarding their daily lives.”
Assoc. Prof. İbrahim Arslan, Head of Üsküdar Üniversitesi Political Science and International Relations Department, made evaluations regarding Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's amnesty decision and the return process of Syrian refugees in Turkey.
What will be the impact of the amnesty on Syrian refugees?
Assoc. Prof. İbrahim Arslan reminded that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad issued an amnesty for those who committed crimes before September 22, 2024, and stated that the amnesty decree does not cover certain crimes that constitute serious attacks on society and the state, bribery, forgery, and some offenses against public morals.
Assoc. Prof. İbrahim Arslan also noted that those living in Syria must apply to the relevant authorities within three months, and those living outside Syria within four months, to benefit from the amnesty, adding, “If these periods are exceeded, it will not be possible to benefit from the amnesty. From Turkey's perspective, finding answers to the questions within the scope of the amnesty decision, such as 'How might the amnesty declared in Syria affect the desire of Syrian refugees in Turkey to return?', 'Considering the scope and conditions of the amnesty, what are the potential risks that refugees wishing to return might face?', 'Do these risks affect refugees' decision to return?', and 'What can be done for the safe return of refugees?' is considered important.”
Attention to Turkey's recent foreign policy change towards Syria…
Reminding that the Assad regime had issued similar amnesty decisions in the past, Assoc. Prof. İbrahim Arslan continued:
“Considering that the Syrian administration has issued amnesty approximately twenty times during the internal turmoil ongoing in Syria since 2011, at first glance, it can be foreseen that the amnesty for crimes committed before September 22, 2024, is no different from previous amnesty decisions and will not cause any change in attitude for refugees in Turkey. However, it should be stated that this approach disregards Turkey's recent change in foreign policy towards Syria.”
President Erdoğan's desire to meet with Bashar al-Assad…
Assoc. Prof. İbrahim Arslan also noted that, as is known, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan made a statement on September 21, 2024, saying, “We wanted to meet with Bashar al-Assad to normalize relations between Turkey and Syria. Now we are awaiting the other side's response.” Arslan stated, “From this point, it should be noted that Assad's amnesty decree, which coincides with Erdoğan's statement, is striking. The return of Syrian refugees in Turkey to their country is a humanitarian issue with internal and external political dimensions for both Turkey and Syria. A large portion of Syrian refugees in Turkey are there due to opposition to the regime or regime pressure. These individuals must be convinced that upon their return to their country, their own and their relatives' safety will be ensured, they will not encounter difficulties in accessing public services, their property owned before the civil unrest will be returned, and they will not face any pressure from the Syrian administration regarding their daily lives.”
The importance of Turkey acting together with Russia for the solution of the problem…
Assoc. Prof. İbrahim Arslan also stated that the issue of Syrian refugees in Turkey has recently been among the top topics frequently discussed in Turkish public opinion, seriously pitting the government and the opposition against each other, and added:
“In the context of irregular migration, the view that Syrian refugees, like other migrants coming to Turkey, may cause serious problems in Turkey, especially regarding internal security, is gaining weight in Turkish public opinion. The solution to this problem, which has emerged in Turkey over approximately 13 years, requires a cross-party understanding. In this regard, it is considered important to determine a roadmap with the participation of parties represented in the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM) to ensure the dignified return of Syrian refugees to their country, respecting their human rights, and to encourage the Syrian government to take more comprehensive and courageous steps. It is foreseeable that Turkey's cooperation with Russia for the solution of the problem will secure/increase Bashar al-Assad's support for the process.”
Roadmap for ensuring the return of Syrian refugees…
Assoc. Prof. İbrahim Arslan also emphasized that the roadmap to be determined for ensuring the return of Syrian refugees in Turkey to their country should focus on the following issues: “The Syrian government making legal arrangements that will form the basis for the human rights-compliant return of Syrian refugees to their country and their safe sustenance of life in their country,” “The principle of Syria’s territorial integrity,” “The signing of a comprehensive good neighborly, security, and cooperation agreement between Turkey and Syria (In a conjuncture where Israel's aggressive stance in the region is increasing, Turkey-Syria rapprochement may become even easier.),” “Measures that can be taken for the reconstruction of Syria,” “The establishment of an international mechanism – preferably under the leadership of the UN – with the participation of Russia, Iran, and Turkey for monitoring the process in Syria,” and “Re-evaluating Turkish citizenship granted to Syrian refugees who are found not to meet the appropriate conditions.”
How will the human rights-compliant return of Syrian refugees to their country be achieved?
Assoc. Prof. İbrahim Arslan, drawing attention to the issue of “The Syrian government making legal arrangements that will form the basis for the human rights-compliant return of Syrian refugees to their country and their safe sustenance of life in their country,” also listed other issues that need to be focused on as follows:
“The principle of Syria’s territorial integrity; the signing of a comprehensive good neighborly, security, and cooperation agreement between Turkey and Syria (In a conjuncture where Israel's aggressive stance in the region is increasing, Turkey-Syria rapprochement may become even easier.); measures that can be taken for the reconstruction of Syria; the establishment of an international mechanism – preferably under the leadership of the UN – with the participation of Russia, Iran, and Turkey for monitoring the process in Syria; re-evaluating Turkish citizenship granted to Syrian refugees who are found not to meet the appropriate conditions.”
Requires comprehensive and long-term diplomatic effort
Assoc. Prof. İbrahim Arslan concluded his words as follows:
“In conclusion; it is believed that the return of Syrian refugees in Turkey to their country, within the framework of Bashar al-Assad's latest decree, is not a matter that can be left solely to their own will; it is assessed that reaching a solution requires a comprehensive and long-term diplomatic effort, with determination, by developing a common stance in domestic public opinion, and taking into account the demands of all relevant parties, including the Syrian government and the opposition.”