Dr. Fehmi Ağca, Director of Üsküdar Üniversitesi Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Department of Political Science and International Relations (English) and Postcolonial Studies Application and Research Center (PAMER), evaluated the tension between the USA and Iran.
“The 45-year-long US-Iran conflict has further strengthened the Shia rule in Iran.”
Dr. Fehmi Ağca, noting that the tension between the US and Iran, which has continued from the 1979 Iranian Islamic revolution to the present day, has led to interesting developments in terms of political outcomes, said, “The US's opposition to Iran aimed to weaken the political cadres that carried out the Iranian Islamic revolution and to make them lose power. However, the 45-year-long US-Iran conflict has resulted in the further strengthening of Shia rule in Iran. The fundamental question to be asked is, does the US really want the overthrow of the Shia sectarian rule in Iran, or, on the contrary, does it want it to become even stronger and more entrenched?”
“This shows that the US acted in line with Iran's interests”
Dr. Fehmi Ağca, also recalling that after the Iranian Islamic revolution, the US and other Western powers provoked Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and supplied weapons to the Iraqi army, encouraging him to attack Iran, explained the following:
“The Iran-Iraq War enabled the political cadres who carried out the revolution in Iran to consolidate their power and gain legitimacy by eliminating the opposition. Consequently, this war led to an increase in the majority of the Iranian people's support for the regime. More importantly, the fact that the Shia majority, who constitute the majority in Iraq, seized political power after the second Iraq Operation launched by the US in 2003, indicates that the US acted in line with Iran's interests. In the ongoing process up to the present day, it can be said that all political tensions, conflicts, and disagreements with the US have served to entrench the regime and expand Iran's sphere of influence.”
“The strategy is: Not to allow any military or economic power to form around Israel”
Dr. Fehmi Ağca, also stating that the fact that the US and its Western allies directed their attacks towards Iraq and Syria, which posed a more immediate threat to Israel, instead of Iran, which was constantly imposed as an enemy, reveals the US's political goals and its main strategy for the region, analyzed: “This strategy is: not to allow any military or economic power to form around Israel, and on the other hand, to divide the Islamic world, which is potentially the greatest source of threat for Israel, through a militarily strong Iran, and to prevent the Islamic world from forming strong resistance and political unity against Western aggression.”
“If this environment of tension is in line with the interests of both countries, it can naturally be accepted that an implicit agreement exists”
Dr. Fehmi Ağca also emphasized that Iran's policy towards Israel and the actions it carries out through organizations like Hezbollah, which are affiliated with it, in response to the Israeli attacks on Gaza after October 7, 2023, have not gone beyond producing some justifications for Israeli and US aggressions, rather than yielding effective results, and he said:
“Indeed, the statements from both the US and Iran indicating that they do not want the conflict to spread across the Middle East demonstrate an implicit agreement between the two countries. There is no need for the two countries to make a secret agreement with each other for this. If this environment of tension is in line with the interests of both countries, it can naturally be accepted that an implicit agreement exists.”
What does the conflict environment between the two countries provide?
Dr. Fehmi Ağca noted that the conflict environment between the two countries creates justifications for the aggressive policies the US is pursuing in the Middle East with the aim of ensuring Israel's security, and can be said to provide a degree of international legitimacy, emphasizing the following:
“On the other hand, this environment of conflict and tension allows Iran to effectively pursue its sectarian policies. Thus, through groups and organizations affiliated with it, Iran tries to consolidate its national defense with positions and resistance points it has established in foreign countries beyond its borders, such as Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, within the framework of a forward defense doctrine.
“If Iran had cooperated with Turkey, the region would not have been fragmented and devastated by terror and civil wars”
If Iran, especially in Syria, instead of these expansionist and sectarian policies, had cooperated with Turkey, which makes intense efforts for the protection of democracy and human rights, the region would not have been fragmented and devastated by terror and civil wars in line with the scenarios planned by the US and other Western imperialist powers. By never agreeing to such cooperation, Iran has paved the way for US intervention in the region.”
“It can be said that the US has no intention of overthrowing the Iranian regime”
Dr. Fehmi Ağca, also stating that Iran's sectarian and expansionist policy is used by the US as a convenient pretext to achieve its own goals and maintain the fragmented and contentious structure of the region, said, “The US can thus more easily persuade or force anti-Iran countries to its side. Therefore, it can be said that the US has no intention of overthrowing the Iranian regime. Iran's policy towards Israel and the actions it carries out through affiliated organizations like Hezbollah in response to Israeli attacks on Gaza after October 7, 2023, do not go beyond generating justifications for Israeli and US aggressions, rather than yielding effective results. Indeed, statements from both the US and Iran indicating that they do not want the conflict to spread across the Middle East show an implicit agreement between the two countries. There is no need for the two countries to have a secret agreement with each other. This environment of tension is suitable for both countries' interests.”
“The wheels of the war industry are now turning faster”
Dr. Fehmi Ağca, also noting that the US and Western European powers need medium-scale regional wars to support their arms industries, continued as follows:
“Thus, it will be necessary to consume old and relatively old-technology weapons and ammunition in warehouses, and to produce and supply new and modern weapon systems and ammunition needed by armies. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have sufficiently revealed this need, and the wheels of the war industry are now starting to turn faster. This situation also applies to Iran. Iran has significantly increased its defense spending in recent years.
This fact shows that the dominant powers guiding the world do not value human life in the slightest. It is probable that when the Gaza War ends, the suffering of thousands of innocent women and children who died will soon be forgotten, and Israel's occupation and intimidation policies will continue until a new tension and war erupts in the not-too-distant future.
“No state in the world wants to confront the US and Israel to protect Palestine”
Because no state in the Middle East and the world, especially Iran, wants to confront the US and Israel to protect Palestine.
This relatively low-intensity tension and conflict environment between the US and Iran is assessed to serve the long-term interests of both countries and will therefore continue in this manner without further escalation. Because the main target of the US and the West is not Iran, but the region between the Eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf, which includes Israel's neighbors.”
