Evaluating US President Joe Biden's announcement of his withdrawal from candidacy for the November 5 elections, Dr. Güler Kalay said, “I don't think who will occupy the presidential seat in the White House as a result of the November 2024 elections will signify a major change for American foreign policy.”
Dr. Güler Kalay: “It is difficult to foresee a radical change in the general trend of American foreign policy and its relations with Turkey. In fact, Ankara is the decisive actor in the recent process of Turkey-America relations.”
Dr. Güler Kalay, Assistant Director of Üsküdar Üniversitesi Strategic Research Center, evaluated US President Joe Biden's announcement of his withdrawal from candidacy for the November 5 elections and discussed the impact of the American elections on Turkish foreign policy.
Expectations for a softening in fierce global political competition have strengthened
Referring to her expectations regarding the consequences of US President Joe Biden's withdrawal from candidacy, Dr. Güler Kalay said, “While concerns about the risk of World War III are growing due to regional proxy wars, the anticipation of whether the outcome of the American Presidential Election in November 2024 will lead to a radical transformation in US Foreign Policy or a softening in the fierce global political competition, I believe, has strengthened somewhat with Biden's withdrawal from candidacy. If we recall American foreign policy in general after the Cold War, we actually see that the support of Democrats and Republicans for the general trend did not make a decisive difference.”
Fundamentally, it doesn't create big differences
Dr. Güler Kalay reminded that Barack Obama, who ran his election campaign with radical rhetoric after G.W. Bush, also did not fundamentally create a major difference, stating, “Similarly, during Trump's first presidential term, there was no transformation in the autonomous decision-making power of the American National Security institution in foreign policy. Therefore, especially in the Post-Sovet era, the trend of American foreign policy is to ensure the continuity of its hegemony, to support the arms industry as a means of managing its economic collapse and neoliberal crises, and to strategically use its military power globally.”
Will who sits in the presidential seat in the White House affect foreign policy?
“Therefore, I do not think that who will occupy the presidential seat in the White House as a result of the November 2024 elections will signify a major change for American foreign policy,” said Dr. Güler Kalay, reminding that Biden, upon becoming president, signaled that tough steps would be taken in foreign policy as a candidate supported by the American arms industry with his phrase “America came back.”
“I foresee the possibility of a much greater defeat awaiting the US in Ukraine”
Dr. Güler Kalay stated, “When we look at the regional crises that bring up the possibility of a new world war today - Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan - these are actually issues directly connected to American foreign policy. If we look at recent history, we remember the defeat suffered by American foreign policy and military strategy in Iraq and Afghanistan. Although American military power seemed to achieve some of its strategic goals during its long years there, it was defeated as a hegemonic power. Today, I foresee the possibility of a much greater defeat awaiting the US in Ukraine.”
“I think Washington will support the continuation of the war”
Dr. Güler Kalay explained that Russia is much stronger and has higher military potential than the Afghan Taliban or Iraq, stating, “Despite tens of billions of dollars in financial and military aid provided to Ukraine and economic sanctions imposed on Russia for many years, there is no outcome, and Ukraine is progressively losing strength and external support. The US is increasingly being drawn into a quagmire in Ukraine, connected to a potential regional war in the Middle East, tensions with China over Taiwan, and the trade war with China. Although Trump promises to end the war in Ukraine, I think Washington will support the continuation of the war.”
What is the Kremlin's comment on Biden's withdrawal from the election?
Emphasizing that the Kremlin's comment on the news of Biden's withdrawal from the election was ‘to be patient and carefully monitor what happens,’ Dr. Güler Kalay said, “The Kremlin viewing Biden as a more predictable candidate indicates that it does not place much trust in Trump's election promises. Ultimately, when it comes to national interests within the framework of the American National Security establishment, there will not be significant differences between Democrats and Republicans. While Trump might reduce support for Ukraine faster than the Democrats, there is also a significant segment within the Democrats who are now uncomfortable with this support. However, it is clear that the new candidate to be supported by the Democrats – who will be determined at the party convention planned for August – or Trump, the leader of the Republicans, will have to reduce support for Ukraine.”
Anti-Israel sentiment is increasingly becoming a problem in American public opinion
Dr. Güler Kalay also stated that the expanding process in the Middle East, evolving into a regional war, and anti-Israel sentiment in American public opinion are increasingly becoming a problem, adding, “On the other hand, Washington has begun to re-emphasize the Taiwan issue directly in its competition with China.”
The impact of American elections on Turkish foreign policy
Dr. Güler Kalay also touched upon who America's new president will be and how this will reflect on Turkey-America relations, continuing as follows:
“Depending on the global geopolitical and geoeconomic conjuncture, I do not think that the Democratic candidate or Trump will bring about a major change. There is a clear coolness in Turkish-American relations due to Turkey prioritizing its national interests over its American alliance in the current international conjuncture and its significant advancements in its defense industry. Of course, for America, it is not a desired situation for an important political ally and a key customer in the defense industry to act increasingly independently.”
Washington's cooperation with the PKK/YPG, its ongoing support for Fethullah Gülen...
Dr. Güler Kalay stated, “On the other hand, Washington's cooperation with the PKK/YPG and its ongoing support for Fethullah Gülen are causing a detachment from the 'American Dream' that the Turkish public has adhered to for many years, not just for Ankara. Therefore, I do not think that the upcoming White House elections will cause a major change in Turkey's American foreign policy. Turkey is a geostrategically important region and ally for America. Turkish foreign policy acts with this awareness. While formulating its own foreign policy strategy on a regional and global scale, it acts with a pragmatic approach in its relations with the USA and NATO.”
“It is difficult to foresee a radical change in America's relations with Turkey”
Dr. Güler Kalay explained that she believes Republican candidate Trump would adopt a more moderate approach in his global foreign policy compared to the Democrats, but the real issue is how independently he can take these steps from the general military, economic, and bureaucratic elites influential in the White House. She stated, “Therefore, it is difficult to foresee a radical change in the general trend of American foreign policy and its relations with Turkey. In fact, Ankara is the decisive actor in the recent process of Turkey-America relations. I think this will continue as long as Erdoğan remains in power. The transformation in Turkish Foreign Policy after 2016 and the significant advancements in our defense industry, in parallel, a more self-confident foreign policy, are certainly important factors in Ankara's decisiveness. On the other hand, I believe Fethullah Gülen and the 2016 coup attempt, the AK Party and Gülen confrontation, have particularly influenced Erdoğan's foreign policy decisions towards America.”
“I think Ankara will also approach Trump's roadmap pragmatically”
Dr. Güler Kalay also noted that she does not think Washington will bring a major difference to Turkey's approach to the issues of Greece, Cyprus, Armenia, and Israel, adding, “However, I still believe that if the Republicans win, Ankara will approach the roadmap set by Trump pragmatically.”
“It is clear that the Kremlin will act cautiously towards the steps taken by the new president elected to the White House”
Emphasizing that Turkey is in a position to be directly affected politically, economically, and sociologically due to its proximity to global conflict zones, Dr. Güler Kalay continued:
“Therefore, it is also directly concerned with the development of these hot conflicts in the upcoming period. Views suggesting a high probability of Trump's election increase optimistic expectations regarding the issues of Ukraine and Israel; however, the Kremlin will not abandon its initial objectives in Ukraine under any circumstances. For this reason, it is clear that the Kremlin will act cautiously towards the steps taken by the new president elected to the White House. Consequently, the Ukraine issue will be determined by Kyiv's decision to negotiate and the stance of both parties towards Ankara's mediation efforts. This process also indirectly affects the Ankara-Washington dialogue. Otherwise, expecting Moscow to compromise on its determined war objectives with a reduction in military aid to Ukraine does not seem rational.”
Evaluating the Israel-Palestine conflict, Dr. Güler Kalay concluded by saying, “The Israel-Palestine conflict, Israel's expansion of the conflict on a regional scale, and Ankara's anti-Israel stance are among the different positions between Ankara and Washington. Although the two countries' different approaches to this conflict do not create a direct opposition, I believe they will indirectly continue to create coolness in the context of 'alliance' by causing divergence in their regional and global foreign policies.”