Asst. Prof. Fehmi Ağca, Head of the Department of Political Science and International Relations (English) at Üsküdar University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, evaluated the potential effects of the Mecca Defense Agreement, signed between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, on the regional security architecture, Turkey's position within NATO, the Iran-Israel-Saudi Arabia power balance, and the Turkish defense industry.
“A necessary, overdue initiative for the region”
Asst. Prof. Fehmi Ağca described the Mecca Defense Agreement as an “overdue initiative,” stating, “Because the hegemonic influence of the US in the region and Israel's decisive influence on US Middle East policies prevented this agreement from being made at an earlier stage. The agreement has high potential to be effective for the establishment of a new regional security architecture. In the next few years, if joint air defense, intelligence sharing, defense industry projects, and regular exercises are carried out, and new members, especially Egypt, become party to the agreement, it could transform into a real collective defense mechanism.”
Dr. Ağca stated that one of the most important results of the agreement could be the removal of the Persian Gulf and regional security from dependence solely on security guarantees provided by the US, noting that this is of great importance for the security of Turkey and other signatory countries.
“Turkey is building an additional defense system while maintaining its position within NATO”
Dr. Ağca also touched upon the strategic importance of the Mecca Defense Agreement for Turkey, saying, “The Mecca agreement should be seen as a strategic initiative aimed at establishing an additional defense system against security risks emanating from the region, while Turkey maintains its position within the Western alliance. Turkey is not just a regional power trying to ensure its own security. Together with regional countries, especially Pakistan, it is trying to create a more effective and reliable defense mechanism in a geography extending from the Eastern Mediterranean to South Asia. Ankara's rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in the field of defense will contribute to Turkey becoming a more effective actor in ensuring peace and security in the region. Pakistan's nuclear capacity and a very large army increase the deterrence and strategic importance of this alliance.”
“Not an alternative to NATO, but a structure that complements NATO”
Asst. Prof. Fehmi Ağca noted that Turkey's NATO membership and its new regional defense efforts do not contradict each other, and continued:
“Turkey's defense policy in recent years has focused on developing defense and security networks with non-NATO regional actors. It can be said that the Mecca agreement aims to transform this policy into an institutional structure. With this agreement, there is no question of Turkey moving away from NATO. Turkey's new Strategic Partnership Framework, signed with the UK in April 2026, shows that NATO's central role in Turkey's security continues. At the last NATO Summit meeting held in Ankara on July 08, 2026, Turkey's strategic importance within NATO was reaffirmed once more. Therefore, it would be appropriate to evaluate the agreement not as an alternative approach to NATO, but as a regional security alliance that complements and can even strengthen NATO.”
Iran's room for maneuver may narrow
Ağca also addressed the possible effects of the Mecca Defense Agreement on the Iran-Israel-Saudi Arabia power balance, saying, “Turkey's greater involvement in Gulf security could narrow Iran's strategic maneuvering space in the Iraq, Syria, and Gulf line. In the event of a relative decrease in the US's security role in the region, the resulting security vacuum could be filled by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan cooperation. This situation could provide deterrence against Iran's attacks targeting Gulf countries. Israel's military superiority in the region stems from the lack of genuine cooperation and solidarity among its Arab neighbors. When Turkey's military capacity and defense industry, Pakistan's nuclear deterrence, and Saudi Arabia's financial capacity are considered together within the same security mechanism, it could lead to Israel needing to readjust its security concept and military strategy.”
Collective deterrence is aimed
Dr. Ağca pointed out that Saudi Arabia had felt secure under the US security umbrella until now, stating, “However, the US-Iran War revealed that the US was not sufficiently effective in ensuring the security of regional countries and had certain areas of vulnerability. It is observed that collective deterrence is aimed at a regional level, on an axis extending from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean, with Turkey–Saudi Arabia–Pakistan cooperation. The capacities of the three countries in different areas offer significant advantages in terms of linking and strengthening security policies.”
New cooperation areas may emerge for the Turkish defense industry
Dr. Ağca stated that the Mecca Defense Agreement could also create significant economic and technological opportunities for Turkey's defense industry, saying, “High-tech defense industry products, proven successful in the field, have made Turkey a reliable actor in foreign policy. Turkey's capacity in national combat aircraft projects such as KAAN and KIZIL ELMA, which it has produced and continues to develop, armed unmanned aerial vehicles such as AKINCI and BAYRAKTAR, air defense systems, missile systems, electronic warfare systems, and naval platforms, and especially the proven successes of armed unmanned aerial vehicles in the battlefields of Karabakh, Syria, Ukraine, and Libya, make Turkey a strong and reliable partner in terms of military capacity. This capacity of Turkey encourages Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, to act together with Turkey, to purchase high-tech defense products from Turkey, and to cooperate with Turkey for joint production. Therefore, the agreement is expected to make a positive contribution to economic and technological cooperation among member countries in the near future.”
How might Iran perceive the agreement?
Dr. Ağca also noted that Iran might perceive this agreement as an encompassing Sunni security bloc, stating, “Turkey and Saudi Arabia do not wish to establish a confrontational relationship with Iran. Therefore, an anti-Iran NATO-like formation is not expected. Turkey openly states that such an aim does not exist, emphasizing that the agreement is not against a specific country.”
Saudi capital, Turkish technology, and Pakistan's military capacity
Dr. Ağca stated that the Middle East security order, where the US has been a decisive actor for many years, is in a process of transformation, and continued:
“For Saudi Arabia, the US's military infrastructure, intelligence capacity, air defense, and naval power are important. However, in light of the lessons learned from the US-Iran War, Saudi Arabia wishes to develop a multi-faceted security strategy instead of linking its security solely to the US. The defense agreement it made with Pakistan in 2025 was the first indicator of this quest. This approach does not result in a complete withdrawal of the US from the region. However, it could weaken the US's role as the primary security provider in the region. This new situation, considering the US's security strategy prioritizing the Pacific region, could be preferred and supported by the US.
The combination of Saudi capital and market with Turkish defense industry technologies and Pakistan's military capacity is assessed to make significant contributions to the development of a regional security alliance within the framework of the Mecca Agreement and the development of a regional defense production network under Turkey's leadership. As a result of this alliance, financial funds, especially from Saudi Arabia, are expected to contribute to solving economic problems in Pakistan.”
“If Egypt also joins, it could become one of the most important strategic power centers of the Islamic world”
Asst. Prof. Fehmi Ağca emphasized that the future of the Mecca Defense Agreement depends on its institutionalization capacity, concluding, “If this agreement can successfully transform into institutionalization, and especially if Egypt becomes a part of this alliance, it can be assessed that this alliance will become the most important strategic power center of the Islamic world.”
