Political Scientist Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan noted that Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the first party in the elections, summarized the situation on election night as 'The Left is over in Germany,' drawing attention to the rise of the far-right AfD and stating, 'The fact that it received votes from 1 in 5 German voters should never be ignored.'
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan stated that the former East German states where a large majority of AfD voters live are states with a very small Turkish and immigrant population compared to the rest of the country, adding, 'While the party is not against Turks, it directly targets Turks with Muslim identity through its harsh and unlawful anti-Islamic policies. Therefore, such a rise of the AfD could strengthen radicalization in Germany. This situation could, in turn, threaten the Muslim Turkish population.'
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan, Head of the Political Science and International Relations (English) Department at Üsküdar University's Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, evaluated the results of the German elections and their effects on people of Turkish origin living in Germany.
How did the right become so strong in Germany?
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan stated that the early elections, held on February 23, 2025, due to the Olaf Scholz government's inability to resolve the crises it faced in Germany, brought significant outcomes for the future of Europe, especially Germany, with the right-leaning results from the ballot box. She said, 'The environment of insecurity created by the Covid-19 pandemic significantly strengthened conservative right-wing views across the world, especially in Europe. But in Europe, in addition, due to the Syrian refugee crisis in 2015 and the subsequent period, and the energy crisis that emerged with the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, the right, and even the far-right, rose incredibly. We know that the right, representing conservative views, rises faster than ever in an atmosphere of insecurity and fear. The climate of trust in Germany and Europe has been severely affected by the major global crises of the last 10 years, paving the way for the irresistible rise of the right.'
"Merz summarized the situation on election night as 'The Left is over in Germany'"
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan, noting that Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the first party in the elections, summarized the situation on election night as 'The Left is over in Germany,' commented, 'So, was this statement merely the victory cries of a winning leader, or was Merz truly right? Was the left in Germany shifting to the right? The answer to this question would, of course, be 'Merz is right.' To illustrate this, the election results can be presented as a concrete example. Furthermore, even the policies of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the strongest representative of the German left, which make it difficult to distinguish between right and left, clearly demonstrate the pressure that the rising right-wing trend exerts on party policies. It is quite possible to give examples of left-wing policies becoming right-wing, including BSW policies.'
What will be the future of the European Union?
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan stated that it would be more appropriate to examine the consequences of such a rise of the right and far-right in Germany and Europe for the future of the European Union on a party-by-party basis, and continued:
'To start with the leading party, the CDU, the party has advocated in its policies for the revitalization of the EU and for Europe to free itself from the tutelage of the USA. The open support given to AfD (Alternative for Germany) by Elon Musk, a close supporter of US President Donald Trump, in the pre-election period, would mean a problematic Germany-US relationship for Germany's potential new government. Furthermore, Trump's statement, 'The European Union was formed to harm America. I will soon announce a 25 percent tariff on the European Union,' reminded EU countries that the EU must free itself from American tutelage as soon as possible. At this point, the policies of Merz, the strongest candidate for chancellorship, will also be along these lines.'
The fact that AfD received votes from 1 in 5 German voters should never be ignored
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan also explained that the AfD, which finished second in the elections and is described as 'the anti-democratic party of German democracy,' supports Dexit, meaning Germany's exit from the EU, in its party program if deemed necessary regarding the EU. She stated, 'This approach has been met with great concern and reaction, as a potential exit of Germany, one of the union's locomotive powers, would initiate a process leading to the disintegration of the union. It is a fact that the implementation of this policy seems difficult with current societal reactions and pressures. However, the fact that the AfD received votes from 1 in 5 German voters should never be ignored.'
Will there be a CDU/CSU – AfD coalition?
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan noted that the question 'Will there be a CDU/CSU – AfD coalition?' has been widely discussed, especially after the CDU cooperated with the AfD on the new immigration law it presented to parliament during the election process, and stated the following:
'The fact that AfD's base largely consists of former Christian Social Union (CDU) members, the post-Merkel CDU's shift towards a more radical right-wing policy, and AfD's occasional flirtations with the CDU have significantly confused voters with questions like 'Will a CDU/CSU – AfD coalition be formed?' In Germany, in accordance with anti-far-right policies, dubbed the 'iron wall' by the public and supported by the slogan 'Never again,' parties have declared they will not cooperate with the AfD. Furthermore, Merz gave a very clear 'No' to AfD leader Alice Weidel's subtle hint for a coalition partnership at the round table where party leaders traditionally gather at 8:15 PM on election night. In Germany, a potential coalition seems highly likely to be in the form of CDU/CSU – SPD, a configuration familiar from the Merkel era. Moreover, both parties' trust and support for the EU indicate that a negative scenario for Germany-EU relations is unlikely for now.'
How does the AfD's rise affect Turks in Germany?
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan stated that the far-right, Nazi German party AfD, known for its anti-immigrant and anti-Islamic rhetoric and policies, doubled its votes in this election, reaching a 20.8% vote share. She said, 'With this percentage, the party finished second in the elections. The party's mindset, devoid of human rights and democracy, has frightened Muslims and immigrants in particular. The first targets that the party demonizes and blames as the cause of Germany's economic, financial, and social crises are Muslims and immigrants. Since its internal transformation days in 2015, AfD has been trying to push the public towards radicalization and increase its vote share through feelings of fear and insecurity.'
Such a rise of the AfD could strengthen radicalization in Germany
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan stated that the former East German states where a large majority of AfD voters live are states with a very small Turkish and immigrant population compared to the rest of the country, adding, 'Furthermore, the party's general view on anti-immigration is not against Turks who helped Germany get back on its feet after World War II. The immigration they oppose is immigration that tries to exploit Germany's social welfare state concept. However, at this point, a big problem could lead us to concern again. While the party is not against Turks, it directly targets Turks with Muslim identity through its harsh and unlawful anti-Islamic policies. Therefore, such a rise of the AfD could strengthen radicalization in Germany. This situation could, in turn, threaten the Muslim Turkish population.'