Some Syrians who sought refuge in Turkey during the civil war in their country created density at border gates to return to Syria after the overthrow of the Assad regime. Evaluating the return, Sociologist Prof. Dr. Barış Erdoğan said, “The new conditions that emerged with the collapse of the Assad regime will undoubtedly accelerate the return process to Syria. However, it is not possible to expect all refugees to return immediately.”
Prof. Dr. Barış Erdoğan also stated that the return of Syrian refugees to their countries would have multi-dimensional effects on Turkey's labor market, workforce, and economy, saying, “With the return of Syrians, demand for basic needs such as housing, food, and clothing in the domestic market will decrease, so we can say that there will be a decrease in rental housing prices in particular.”
Erdoğan also points out that the discourse ‘They should return now’ could be voiced more loudly.
Prof. Dr. Barış Erdoğan, Head of the Sociology Department at Üsküdar University, evaluated the issue of Syrians in Turkey returning to their country after the overthrow of the Assad regime.
Over 3 million Syrian refugees in Turkey
Prof. Dr. Barış Erdoğan stated that currently, over 3 million Syrian refugees live in Turkey under temporary protection, adding, “Despite births in recent years, the number of refugees has decreased by over half a million due to both returns and transitions to Europe. The new conditions that emerged with the collapse of the Assad regime will undoubtedly accelerate the return process to Syria. However, to be realistic, it is not possible to expect all refugees to return immediately. Even those who wish to return will wait for suitable conditions to arise for themselves.
Mass return is a low probability…
Pointing out that two main factors gain importance at this point, Prof. Dr. Erdoğan said, “Firstly, the extent to which stable, safe, and economically sustainable living conditions will be established in Syria to attract Syrian refugees back to their country is decisive. The second factor is how much the push factors causing refugees to leave Turkey have strengthened. Starting with the first factor, the decision for Syrians to return primarily depends on the sufficiency of security, stability, and socioeconomic conditions in the regions they plan to return to. If no new conflicts occur in regions controlled by fragmented opposition forces after the collapse of the regime, a relatively stable administration is formed, and an environment where basic needs are met is provided, there will be a rapid increase in the tendency to return. However, as a result of the devastating effects of the 13-year civil war, Syria's cities and infrastructure have been largely destroyed. It is unlikely that Syrians who have grown accustomed to a certain standard of living in Turkey will return en masse without this destruction being remedied. Therefore, international support for the reconstruction of Syria is of great importance.”
The return process is expected to span years…
Prof. Dr. Barış Erdoğan continued his words by saying, “If an intensive reconstruction process begins with the contributions of the international community, a political framework that will strengthen stability is established, and concrete guarantees for a safe return are given to refugees, returns may occur even faster than expected.”
“Moreover, the employment opportunities that will arise during this reconstruction process will also be a source of motivation for Syrian refugees to return. However, it is not realistic for all these developments to be completed in the short term; the return process should be anticipated to span years. Sociological research shows that diaspora communities' tendencies to return decrease the longer they spend in their host countries. Immigrants develop a ‘permanence strategy’ in the society they settle in, make material and moral investments, and build their children's education, language skills, and professional networks in this new order. Therefore, one of the main factors determining the return of a refugee community is how integrated they are into the society they live in and what economic, social, and cultural opportunities they have accessed there.”
It will not be easy for those who have adapted to society to decide to return
Prof. Dr. Barış Erdoğan stated that even if stability is provided in their homeland, it will not be easy for Syrians who have found good jobs, established their own businesses, enrolled their children in schools, and largely adapted to society in Turkey to decide to return, saying, “Although the reshaped homeland may create a certain appeal, the security provided by the existing order in Turkey, investments in children's future, and socio-economic gains will make the decision to return more difficult. In this case, it is likely that a significant portion of the skilled and integrated segments of society will remain in Turkey or strive to stay. However, while continuing to live here, these segments can also participate in economic and social activities in Syria, thus establishing transnational ties between Turkey and Syria and contributing to the strengthening of economic and cultural ties between the two countries. On the other hand, the majority, consisting of unskilled workers employed in the informal sector and those who have not been able to gain a sufficient economic foothold in Turkey, will be more willing to return. This segment will be more eager to leave as they will find work in Syria during the reconstruction process and have the opportunity to live under relatively good conditions in their homeland.”
Unemployment in Turkey will decrease, housing rents will fall
Prof. Dr. Barış Erdoğan, also stating that the return of Syrian refugees to their countries would create multi-dimensional effects on Turkey's labor market, workforce, and economy, continued:
“While this situation may have negative repercussions for employers and homeowners, new opportunities will arise for the unemployed and tenants. With the return of Syrian workers, who provide an intensive and cheap labor force in areas such as agriculture, construction, textiles, service sectors, and small-scale manufacturing, the labor supply will decrease, and Turkish citizens will benefit from higher wages as they fill this void. While this development is advantageous for workers, inflationary pressure is likely to emerge as increased costs may be reflected in consumer prices. Furthermore, with the return of Syrians, demand for basic needs such as housing, food, and clothing in the domestic market will decrease, so we can say that there will be a decrease in rental housing prices in particular. As expenditures from public resources for Syrians will also decrease, there may be some relief on the budget.”
Will there be pressure on Syrian citizens who do not want to leave?
Prof. Dr. Barış Erdoğan also offered predictions regarding the potential reaction of the Turkish public towards Syrians who do not wish to return to their country after the collapse of the Assad regime, stating, “It is a known fact that negative perceptions towards Syrian refugees have increased in recent years amidst the economic crisis in Turkey. Many Turkish citizens see the presence of Syrians as the root cause of various problems, from rent increases to unemployment. Segments interpreting the new political environment that emerged after Assad as a sufficient reason for Syrians to return will voice the discourse ‘They should return now’ more loudly. Therefore, I believe that refugees who do not wish to return to Syria for various reasons, especially those with low human and economic capital, may encounter more intense anti-refugee rhetoric and attitudes compared to the previous period.”
