Evaluating Republican candidate Donald Trump's victory in the recent US presidential elections and its international implications, Dr. Selin Karana, faculty member from the Department of Political Science and International Relations, drew attention to the potential post-election relations between Turkey and the US, stating, “US-Turkey relations will be tested on a range of issues in Trump's new era. One of these is the F-35 problem.”
Dr. Selin Karana also stated that another issue expected to be resolved during the Trump era is US support for the YPG, saying, “Trump is adopting a more inward-looking policy by cutting back on US military activities and financial support in distant regions. In this context, there is a possibility that Turkey will be given space with the reduction of the American military presence in Syria and the loosening of support for the YPG.”
Dr. Selin Karana, faculty member from the Üsküdar Üniversitesi Department of Political Science and International Relations, evaluated Republican candidate Donald Trump's victory in the recent US presidential elections and its international implications.
Polarizing rhetoric witnessed during election process
Firstly, addressing the campaign process of the United States Presidential elections, Dr. Selin Karana stated, “During the campaign, a process was witnessed where Republican Party candidate Donald Trump and Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris pursued campaign strategies against each other rather than focusing on future promises with polarizing rhetoric. While polls conducted among the American public showed the two candidates having very close vote percentages, the US media, on one hand, tried to solidify support among the candidates' fan groups with polarizing rhetoric, and on the other hand, disseminated news suggesting their favored candidate was leading in the polls. However, contrary to the fierce competition and the close race anticipated between the candidates in the polls, Donald Trump achieved an unexpected success in the elections, winning by a clear margin.”
Trump's economic promises also played a role
Highlighting Donald Trump's unexpected success, Dr. Selin Karana said, “This success can be explained by criticisms of the failures of some policies of his predecessor Joe Biden's administration during the campaign, his anti-immigrant stance maintained since past campaigns, his promises especially in the economic field, and his peaceful policies. Additionally, Kamala Harris's freedom promises emphasizing identity politics failing to resonate with the public may also have contributed to Trump's success.”
African-American and Latin American voters' support crucial in Trump's victory
According to the New York Times, Dr. Karana noted that a significant factor in Trump's victory was the support he received from African-American and Latin American voters, who were expected to be Harris's voter base. “Furthermore, Harris's personalization of the race by focusing on her opponent Trump instead of her own campaign promises may have evoked a negative reaction among voters, leading some to support Trump,” she added.
Can the F-35 issue be resolved with Trump?
Evaluating potential post-election relations between Turkey and the US, Dr. Selin Karana continued:
“President Erdoğan's past relations with Donald Trump have followed a fluctuating course. Although Trump's letter in 2019, written in a style disregarding diplomatic language, and his threatening posts on Twitter regarding the Turkish economy led to a cooling of relations, due to the rapport between Trump and Erdoğan, Erdoğan warmly congratulated the election results, calling Trump 'my friend'. Nevertheless, US-Turkey relations will be tested on a range of issues in Trump's new era. One of these is the F-35 problem. Turkey's purchase of the S-400 air defense system from Russia led to the US not delivering F-35 fighter jets to Turkey. This issue is expected to be resolved during the Trump administration.”
Reduction of American military presence in Syria...
Dr. Selin Karana also stated that another issue expected to be resolved during the Trump era is US support for the YPG, saying, “Trump is adopting a more inward-looking policy by cutting back on US military activities and financial support in distant regions. In this context, there is a possibility that Turkey will be given space with the reduction of the American military presence in Syria and the loosening of support for the YPG.”
Trump may not be able to end this war alone
Noting that Trump frequently emphasized during his presidential campaign that he would end the Ukraine-Russia war if elected, Dr. Selin Karana said, “In this scenario, the Trump administration might be expected to force Ukraine to negotiate with Russia by cutting off the military and economic aid provided by the Biden administration. However, it is also foreseeable that the European Union, which feels the Russian threat intensely and closely, will continue its support for Ukraine. Therefore, while Trump's role is important, unless Russia and Ukraine make mutual concessions for peace and the EU feels secure, Trump may not be able to end this war alone.”
Who benefits from the end of the Ukraine-Russia war?
Dr. Karana stated that while the end of this war could yield positive results for Turkey, forcing a peace that would undermine Ukraine's territorial integrity by separating its east could strengthen Russia's hand and shake the power balances on the European continent in the near future. Dr. Selin Karana said, “As a result of the Trump administration's tacit approval, Russia's expansion of its sphere of influence could increase European countries' perception of the threat from Russia, potentially harming regional stability in the medium term.”
Turkey-US conflict of interest may occur over the Palestine-Israel issue
Dr. Karana also explained that while Democrats supported Israel during the Biden administration, Harris's critical approach to Israel's attacks on Gaza during her campaign created an impression of a hypocritical policy among voters. She said, “It remains uncertain whether Trump's peace rhetoric encompasses the Israel-Palestine conflict. Therefore, in Trump's new presidential term, the main conflict of interest between Turkey and the US may arise over the Palestine-Israel issue. Looking at Trump's campaign rhetoric, it is seen that he supported Israel during its attacks and established close relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Thus, even if he expresses pro-peace rhetoric, it is foreseeable that Trump will not be on the side of a two-state solution for the Palestine-Israel issue. His pro-Israel policies could also bring the Trump administration into confrontation with the Erdoğan administration.”
US-China rivalry may affect international trade and reflect on Turkey
Dr. Selin Karana reminded that during his 2016-2020 presidency, Donald Trump positioned China as a significant international rival to the US and initiated a trade war against China, claiming that China harmed the American economy through unfair trade agreements. Dr. Karana said, “In this new era, Trump may continue this policy and view China as the main rival of the US, unlike the Biden era's approach of targeting Russia. In this scenario, the US-China rivalry is expected to affect international trade and reflect on all countries worldwide, including Turkey.”
Trump gave Musk authority to supervise cabinet ministers
Dr. Selin Karana also noted that American billionaire Elon Musk contributed $15 million to Trump's campaign and, in return, gained $15 billion with Trump's victory. She concluded, “Musk's support for Trump via his own Twitter (X) platform during the campaign played a role in Trump's win. In return for this support, Trump has given Musk the authority to supervise cabinet ministers. We can foresee that Trump's media and politics will put American democracy in a bind in his new term.”