Population projections indicate that Turkey's youth population, as a proportion of the total population, could fall below 10 percent in 2050 and 2100. Turkey's population is increasingly aging.
Sociologist Prof. Dr. Barış Erdoğan noted that the global population will continue to age, stating, “Turkey has already entered the category of 'very old countries' because more than 10 percent of its population is over 65 years old.”
Sociologist Prof. Dr. Barış Erdoğan:
“We are aging, that is true, but instead of painting a pessimistic picture, we can also look at the bright side. Today's 65-year-old is healthier and more productive compared to a 65-year-old in the past. This is an advantage.”
Prof. Dr. Barış Erdoğan, Head of the Sociology Department at Üsküdar Üniversitesi, evaluated the increasingly aging population in Turkey and the decreasing proportion of the youth population within the total population.
Turkey is projected to reach a population of approximately 90 million
Prof. Dr. Barış Erdoğan stated that population and birth rates are dramatically declining, saying, “Actually, the decline in population and birth rates is an expected situation. As urbanization increases worldwide, and as women's participation in employment and education levels rise, a decrease in birth rates is expected. Turkey has been following this trend for many years. However, since 2014, especially in the last 4 years, this decline has begun to occur more rapidly than anticipated. As a country, there was a target of 100 million population, but current data indicate that this goal seems difficult to achieve. If these trends continue, Turkey is projected to likely reach a population of around 90 million.”
Life expectancy in Turkey is rising, similar to other European and developed countries
Prof. Dr. Barış Erdoğan pointed out that this situation is important from two perspectives, stating:
“For a country, a new and young population means dynamism for the economy. However, when insufficient population comes from the lower echelons, problems will start to emerge at the top. You might ask why? Because our population is also aging. The reason for our aging is that more people are living longer. Due to reasons such as improving health conditions and increasing care opportunities, life expectancy in Turkey, like in other European and developed countries, is rising and approaching the late 70s. Now the question that needs to be asked is: Who will take care of this population? Younger generations need to participate in employment, produce, and with their taxes and premiums, pay for the pensions of the elderly above and cover healthcare services. One of the significant issues ahead of us is how much we need to increase birth rates.”
Our population will no longer grow, and has even entered a declining trend
Prof. Dr. Barış Erdoğan noted that globally, the fertility rate, meaning the number of children born per woman, must be at least 2.1 for the population to remain stable. He stated, “This rate is usually calculated for women aged 16-49. To put it simply, when a woman and a man marry and start a family, they need to have at least two children to keep the population constant. So, even to maintain a stable population, let alone increase it, this condition is necessary. However, according to TÜİK's 2023 data, this rate has dropped to 1.51 in Turkey. This indicates that our population will no longer grow; it has even entered a declining trend. This is actually an expected situation; a similar scenario is observed globally, in Europe, and in developed countries. In the past, children provided economic contributions to families in agricultural societies, but why do people today prefer to have fewer children? There are various reasons for this.”
The rural population contributes very little to the overall average
Prof. Dr. Barış Erdoğan stated that the number of people living in rural areas of Turkey has decreased significantly in proportion, saying, “Now, the vast majority of Turkey, almost reaching 90 percent, has become a country where people work in non-agricultural sectors in cities or towns. Therefore, the rural population, meaning child fertility, contributes very little to the overall average. For example, in our provinces like Şanlıurfa and Mardin, the fertility rate, which was around 5 about 30 years ago, has now dropped to around 3.2. The reason for this is the widespread use of tractors and mechanization in agriculture, reducing the need for children.”
Most families settle for one child
In contrast, Prof. Dr. Barış Erdoğan said that a different problem is encountered in urban environments, stating, “People's expectations have also begun to change. In the past, children grew up, went to public school, and were raised according to whatever opportunities were available. Most of us grew up this way in neighborhoods. But now, people want their children to attend private schools, take piano lessons, learn horse riding, and have the best opportunities. All these come with extra costs. In a time when daycare and private school fees are so high, people struggle to cover these expenses. For this reason, most families settle for one child.”
Daycares where children can be safely entrusted need to be widespread
“We have had a population problem since the founding of the Republic. While saying 'we created fifteen million youth in ten years, of all ages,' we needed a young population after major wars. Today, we still need a productive and young population,” said Prof. Dr. Barış Erdoğan. He continued, “So, what can be done? Firstly, improving the quality of public schools and expanding daycares are important steps. Mothers are now, rightfully, in a different position compared to the past. Women are receiving education, attending university, pursuing master's and doctoral degrees. Daycares where children can be safely entrusted need to be widespread. Additionally, some facilities such as early retirement and credit opportunities could be provided to women who give birth or have a certain number of children. In European countries, Korea, and Japan, the state provides great opportunities, yet people are still hesitant to have children.”
Childbearing is postponed to later ages
Prof. Dr. Barış Erdoğan stated that in the past, the social expectation or measure of success was to start a family, have children, multiply, and grow as soon as possible. He said, “In the new era, individualism is enhanced; people are constantly encouraged by the media to browse, travel, experience the world, and live their lives. When you do all these, you postpone your childbearing age to later years. As you postpone, that is, as you focus on yourself, the window for childbearing within that postponed period also begins to narrow. This is not a situation unique to Turkey. In such a world, people either do not want to have children at all or postpone it to later ages.”
Prof. Dr. Barış Erdoğan concluded his remarks by stating that it used to be said that Syrians coming to Turkey “had 5 children”:
“However, now their number of children has also dropped to 3. As they come to Turkey and become part of urbanization, the number of children decreases. Circumstances are challenging people. This situation is not unique to Turkey; the population will continue to age worldwide. Turkey, on the other hand, has already entered the category of 'very old countries' because more than 10 percent of its population is over 65 years old. We are aging, that is true, but instead of painting a pessimistic picture, we can also look at the bright side. Today's 65-year-old is healthier and more productive compared to a 65-year-old in the past. This is an advantage. Moreover, with the development of robotic technologies and artificial intelligence, we will be able to delegate some of the jobs that the young population would do to robots and machines. But ultimately, we exist in this world to be human. We did not build this world for robots or machines. Therefore, the continuation of the generation is important for the good and well-being of humanity; we need to look at the situation from this perspective as well.”