Evaluating the impact of foreign policy on the Presidential elections, Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan stated that there were significant differences between the foreign policy paradigms of the People's Alliance (Cumhur İttifakı) and the Nation Alliance (Millet İttifakı) in election propaganda. Arslan noted that foreign policy played a more decisive role than in previous elections, recalling the Western media's descriptions of the Turkish elections as ‘the most important election in the world,’ and added that the Western media fostered the perception that Erdoğan's rule should end.
“Foreign policy played a more decisive role than in previous elections”
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan, Head of the Department of Political Science and International Relations (English) at Üsküdar Üniversitesi Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, and Director of the Political Psychology Application and Research Center, evaluated the impact of foreign policy in the Presidential elections.
“Western media fostered the perception that Erdoğan’s rule should end.”
Stating that foreign policy played a more decisive role in the May 28, 2023 elections than in previous elections, Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan said, “We saw the biggest indicator of this in the extraordinary interest shown by the Western media in the elections. Before the elections, the Western media fostered the perception that the elections in Turkey were ‘the most important election in the world’ and that President Erdoğan’s rule should end. Among these, The Economist commented that the elections in Turkey would have global consequences and that Erdoğan should leave.”
“There were significant differences between the foreign policy paradigms of the People's Alliance and the Nation Alliance.”
“In pre-election propaganda rhetoric, it can be said that there were very serious differences between the foreign policy paradigms of the People's Alliance (Cumhur İttifakı) and the Nation Alliance (Millet İttifakı),” said Kök Arslan. “The People's Alliance advocated that Turkey should pursue an independent, ambitious foreign and security policy aimed at regional leadership. The Nation Alliance argued that this ambitious foreign policy brought costs to the country. It advocated for a more inward-looking policy, withdrawing the country from regional issues, and pursuing a ‘traditional’ pro-Western policy, which they assumed would be less costly. Erdoğan, especially after 2015, began to pursue an assertive foreign policy in response to the wave of terrorism Turkey faced domestically and the wars and conflicts in its immediate vicinity.”
“Ambitious foreign policy also motivated voters.”
Kök Arslan reminded that this ambitious policy was expressed as 'Turkey's Century' on April 11, during the announcement of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's AK Party election manifesto. “MHP, the largest partner of the People's Alliance, also supported Erdoğan's policy of adopting a more proactive stance in foreign policy. This ambitious position, while consolidating the People's Alliance itself on one hand, also sociologically united and motivated the voters supporting the People's Alliance on the other hand. The mood of the People's Alliance voters going into the election was to stop the ‘shameless assault of the seven powers,’ especially Western ones, against their country.” she stated.
The Nation Alliance also defined its political space through foreign policy
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan stated that this consolidation within the People's Alliance through foreign policy also created a sense of competition within the Nation Alliance. “There, too, it brought about the consolidation of a broad opposition base, even if not entirely cohesive, at both political and sociological levels. Therefore, just like the People's Alliance experienced, the Nation Alliance parties also defined their political spaces through foreign policy. An example of this can be seen in their development of nationalist rhetoric, particularly before the second round, focusing on Syria and the Turkic world.” she said.
The People's Alliance's foreign policy preferences are supported by voters
Kök Arslan also touched upon the Nation Alliance's foreign policy preference, especially before the first round. “As can be seen in the joint policy text, the Erdoğan government was criticized for isolating Turkey in international politics, detaching it from the Western alliance, bringing it closer to Russia, disrupting Turkey's traditional neutrality status in the Middle East, and causing the 'Middle Easternization' of foreign policy. We can see these criticisms in critical foreign policy statements made by CHP's foreign policy strategists, including Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. The Nation Alliance's foreign policy approach is built on neutrality and non-intervention. Examples such as Libya, Syria, Eastern Mediterranean, Ukraine, Karabakh, and PYD-YPG can be seen to sufficiently represent this position.” she said.
Evaluating the results of the second round held on May 28, Kök Arslan concluded:
“Erdoğan’s victory being celebrated in different parts of the world demonstrates its global dimension…”
“Based on Erdoğan winning the presidential election with 52.18 percent, we can say that the People's Alliance’s foreign policy preferences are supported by the voters. Furthermore, Erdoğan’s re-election as president being celebrated in different parts of the world such as Beirut, Jerusalem, Africa, Sarajevo, Pristina, Baku, and Latin America showed the global importance of the 2023 elections.”