Head of the Political Science and International Relations (Turkish) Department at Üsküdar University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Prof. Nergiz Özkural Köroğlu, evaluated US President Donald Trump's personal attendance at the NATO Summit to be held in Ankara on July 7-8.
Trump highlights leader diplomacy
Stating that “US President Donald Trump's personal attendance at the NATO Summit holds diplomatic and strategic importance for Türkiye,” Prof. Nergiz Özkural Köroğlu added, “In addition to the policy he pursues regarding NATO, he will also prioritize inter-leader negotiation and direct relations as per his foreign policy strategy. Pragmatic negotiations and flexibilities may be possible on strategic issues such as F-16 modernization demands and defense industry cooperation, as well as on issues like CAATSA sanctions.”
Drawing attention to Türkiye's influence within NATO, Prof. Köroğlu stated, “Within NATO, Türkiye is an important country not only for its strong army but also for its role in Black Sea security, its proximity to the Middle East, and its management of migration borders. Türkiye's geostrategic position strengthens its hand. Trump's direct participation in the NATO Summit could create a new diplomatic atmosphere in Türkiye-US relations. However, this means a pragmatic and leader-centric focus rather than a corporate restructuring. Trump already has an ongoing preference for establishing close relations with President Tayyip Erdoğan. It can be foreseen that this will continue even more intensely after this summit.”
NATO's future to be discussed in Ankara
Evaluating the Trump administration's approach that NATO needs significant changes, Prof. Köroğlu said, “The Trump administration's ‘NATO needs significant changes’ approach directly challenges NATO's institutional identity and questions the alliance's internal transformation capacity and the resilience of transatlantic political harmony. Trump claims that the US bears a disproportionate burden within NATO. This issue was also on the agenda at this year's Munich Security Conference. It highlights the necessity for Europe to increase defense spending and for burden-sharing within NATO to be balanced.”
Pointing out that Trump argues the US's role as a security guarantor for European security, ongoing since the end of World War II, must now change, Prof. Nergiz Özkural Köroğlu stated, “Furthermore, unlike European leaders, Trump believes that NATO should be a security platform based on burden-sharing and benefit balance rather than an alliance of values. Consequently, we can foresee that the Ankara Summit will address the increase in European security expenditures, burden-sharing, and the strategic transformation of the alliance. Türkiye's prominence with its military power within NATO will necessitate greater consideration of Türkiye's position in potential burden-sharing and other changes.”
Türkiye's balancing role comes to the fore
Noting thatT ürkiye's role as both a NATO member and an important actor in the balance of Russia, Ukraine, the Black Sea, and the Middle East strengthens Ankara's hand, Prof. Köroğlu said, “Türkiyeadopts the principle of ‘advocating regional ownership and solutions for regional problems’ in its foreign relations. Therefore, it is increasing its regional maneuvering capacity day by day with proactive foreign policy decisions. In the Russia-Ukraine War, it pursued a multi-faceted foreign policy, achieving successful foreign policy through initiatives such as ‘grain diplomacy’ by balancing between Russia and Western powers. Within the framework of the Montreux Convention, Russia and Türkiye are important actors in Black Sea security. However, at the same time, Türkiye is a NATO country on NATO's southern flank and has strategic importance. From this perspective, Türkiye's ‘balancing role’ is important for its own security and for maintaining peace in the region. Its geographical proximity and being a border neighbor to Middle Eastern countries also demonstrate Türkiye's strategic importance. In the face of the Iran War, Türkiye also adopted an approach that advocated stability and prosperity in the region with its cautious and peaceful stance regarding the Ukraine War.”
Iran crisis and energy security will be important topics of the summit
Stating that Trump's announcement that they are close to an agreement in the negotiations with Iran will also affect the summit's agenda, Prof. Köroğlu continued:
“Trump's announcement that they are close to an agreement in negotiations with Iran and the discourse about the Strait of Hormuz being reopened can be discussed at the Ankara summit in the context of the global energy crisis created by this crisis and energy supply security for alliance countries. Additionally, NATO's role of 'out-of-area' intervention can be debated regarding the consequences of the Iran crisis at the summit. There might be a question like, ‘Is the alliance merely regional, or a global crisis manager?’ When we look at Türkiye's role in this process, several issues emerge. As Türkiye is a neighbor of Iran, some missiles veered off course and fell into Türkiye during the war. Therefore, topics such as strengthening Türkiye's air and missile defense, the security of NATO's southern flank, the role of the Kürecik radar, and the permanent deployment of air defense systems may be on the agenda at the summit. Furthermore, as Türkiye is a country on energy corridors, it is important for energy supply security. Beyond this, Türkiye's mediation capacity and role could also be effective in US-Iran communication.”
Türkiye can assume a facilitating role
Stating that Trump's presence in Ankara during a period of ongoing Israel-Iran tension could create diplomatic opportunities for Türkiye, Prof. Köroğlu said, “Trump's presence in Ankara in an environment of ongoing Israel-Iran tension could create an opportunity for Türkiye's mediation capacity, but this does not automatically translate into a mediation role. Türkiye will want to assume a 'facilitating' role in the Israel and Iran tension. However, since Türkiye's stance on Israel's actions in Gaza, which violate international law, is clear, Türkiye's mediation capacity will not be very intense.”
New collaborations in F-16 and defense industry may come to the agenda
Also making evaluations regarding the future of Türkiye-US relations, Prof. Köroğlu said, “The F-35 issue is also linked to the S-400 crisis and CAATSA sanctions. Therefore, while a return to the F-35 program may not happen in the short term, it is possible to establish alternative cooperations in the defense industry, such as F-16 modernization, ammunition, and joint production. In terms of energy security, since Türkiye is a transit country, various projects and alternatives will be discussed with Türkiye regarding European energy supply security. Counter-terrorism is one of the most fragile issues. This is because the US has relations with the SDF/YPG in Syria, but Türkiye views this structure as a security threat. If the US reduces its military presence in Syria, Türkiye's role in Syria's political transformation process could strengthen. This is a topic to be discussed with Türkiye when Trump arrives.”
Türkiye's weight in the global system is being affirmed
Stating that the NATO Summit to be held in Ankara conveys important messages not only for the future of NATO but also for Türkiye's position in the international system, Prof. Köroğlu made the following assessment:
“In the multipolar international system, even though Türkiye has experienced problems with the US on issues such as the S-400, F-35 crisis, and Syria policies, it also holds a critical position for all hotlines, from the Ukraine-Russia War to the Iran crisis. Its mediating/balancing role in regional crises is important in this regard.”
Stating that holding the summit in Ankara is an indication that Türkiye's geostrategic and military weight is accepted by the international system, Prof. Köroğlu concluded by saying, “In contrast to Trump's tough stance on NATO's burden-sharing and strategy, the direct telephone diplomacy he conducts with Erdoğan shows that the personal diplomacy channel between the two leaders is decisive. In the recent period when the Greater Middle East project has gained importance,Türkiye's key role is coming to the fore.”
