Political Scientist Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan stated that Iran's air attack on Israel achieved success from Iran's perspective and said that Iran was being lured into a trap. Arslan, noting that Iran does not want to enter a regional war, also evaluated Turkey's stance. Arslan said, "Turkey's line is correct, appropriate, and cautious. The escalation of this crisis and its transformation into a regional war is very risky for Turkey. A possible America-Iran war would create very difficult conditions for Turkey, which is a NATO member. Therefore, Turkey must maintain its neutrality."
Üsküdar Üniversitesi Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Department of Political Science and International Relations (English) Head, Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan, evaluated Iran's retaliation against Israel and discussed Turkey's stance.
“Iran believes time is on its side”
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan stated that Iran's retaliatory air attack against Israel achieved success from Iran's perspective, saying, "Because Iran does not want to enter a regional war. It believes that time is developing in its favor. The groups with military forces that Iran calls resistance forces acting with it in the region (Ansarullah in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq, military groups close to Iran in Syria) all believe that time is working in their favor. Iran is applying 'strategic patience' in the face of Israeli provocations. Because Iran sees that America and the Western world, Israel's biggest supporters, are losing power, especially with the establishment of a multipolar world. Parallel to this loss of power, it believes that support for Israel will decrease. Meanwhile, Hamas has transformed itself into a Hezbollah-like entity. In other words, Iran believes time is on its side."
“Iran has reached the stage of making nuclear weapons”
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan, also stating that Iran has reached the stage of making nuclear weapons, continued as follows:
"Iran had officially announced that it accelerated its uranium enrichment activities due to America's unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear agreement signed with the 5 permanent members of the Security Council and Germany during Trump's time, and the Europeans' inability to find a proper alternative thereafter. According to some estimates, Iran may already have nuclear weapons or is about to make them. Furthermore, it possesses a significant stock of chemical weapons.”
Iran does not want a comprehensive war with the US in the Middle East…
"When we put all these together, Iran does not want to enter into a comprehensive war with America in the Middle East," said Arslan, "For this reason, it has given measured responses to many provocations by Israel since October 7. Hezbollah, one of the groups supported by Iran, is also responding in a measured way. Their assumptions are as follows: Israel cannot defeat Hamas. Despite its genocidal ethnic cleansing practices in Gaza, it has not achieved its strategic goals and will not do so at this rate. It is understandable that Israel, which even calls upon Haredi Jews who refuse to bear arms, wants to provoke a major war and draw America into it."
Netanyahu wants to turn the Gaza war into a regional war for his political future…
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan noted that Netanyahu primarily sees the Gaza war's transformation into a regional war as the only way out for his political future, stating, "Until now, the attack he carried out in Gaza led to the killing and massacre of 33,000 innocent people and the injury of more than 70,000 Palestinians. Despite all this, Israel failed to achieve its goals and obtain results. It could not rescue the hostages, nor could it capture or kill very important Hamas leaders. It became a 'baby killer'. For the first time, Israel has been subjected to very heavy criticism, including from the Western world. Netanyahu is cornered within Israel. Therefore, he believes that if he can drag Iran into the war and turn it into a regional conflict, he can save both himself and Israel. Israel's calculation is that in such a regional war, the US and the Western world will stand fully behind Israel against Iran."
“Iran is aware it is being lured into a trap”
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan also explained that Iran is aware it is being lured into a trap, saying, "But on the other hand, it felt obliged to respond to the attack on the Damascus Consulate building. It had to respond, but this response should not lead to a regional war. From this perspective, Iran is successful in terms of its political evaluations."
“Netanyahu did not get what he wanted”
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan also stated that it cannot really be said that Netanyahu got what he wanted, adding, "Because if Israel had ended its attacks in Gaza and then Iran had retaliated, or if Iran had attacked without Israel's consulate attack; Netanyahu could have garnered support from the Western world and attempted to move against Iran. Public opinion critical of Israel and considering Israel's actions unacceptable has also formed in America and European countries. But despite these public opinions, there are governments that give unconditional support to Israel. In such an environment, as Israel's attacks in Gaza continued, nothing changed since the administrations were already pro-Israel. Iran must have calculated all this. Western administrations are in a dilemma. On one hand, they are forced to give unconditional support to Israel, and on the other hand, they must take seriously the criticisms regarding genocidal ethnic cleansing practices."
“Unconditional support for Israel is not in America’s interests”
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan also analyzed that providing unconditional support to an Israel that implements genocidal ethnic cleansing in a multipolar world is not in America's interests, stating the following:
"Firstly, the US is losing the public opinion of its allied Arab states, even if not their leaders. Secondly, Western discourses and claims such as democracy, human rights, and freedom of expression become meaningless. Israel cannot enter into a direct conflict with Iran without America's support. For this reason, Netanyahu wanted to draw America into the war, start a regional war, and initiate an America-Iran war. He failed to achieve this goal. It is understood that Biden told Netanyahu 'not to retaliate against Iran.'
As for America, the crisis evolving into a regional war and turning into an American-Iranian war will negatively affect its interests. America does not want to spend more of its power and energy in the Middle East before the elections. This would be something that would benefit both China and Russia. From this perspective, we can say that the meeting between Biden and Netanyahu will determine how the crisis will unfold in the coming days."
“Turkey’s line is correct, appropriate, and cautious”
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan, also evaluating Turkey's stance, said, "Turkey's line is correct, appropriate, and cautious. The policy of not allowing America to use not only its bases but also its airspace is correct. It pursues a balanced and cautious policy. The escalation of this crisis and its transformation into a regional war is very risky for Turkey. A possible America-Iran war would create very difficult conditions for Turkey, which is a NATO member. Therefore, Turkey must maintain its neutrality. Furthermore, there is a high probability of the PKK being reactivated and destabilizing initiatives in the South Caucasus. It is also necessary to prevent the formation of public opinion against Iran." She concluded.