As elections approach, survey results conducted by many polling firms are being shared. Prof. Dr. Süleyman İrvan states that institutions considered guiding in polls worldwide demand that full disclosure information be provided when research results are announced. He also adds that the Turkish Researchers Association, established to regulate and supervise public opinion research in our country, should ensure the accountability of companies claiming to conduct public opinion research. Prof. Dr. Süleyman İrvan emphasizes the necessity of establishing a self-regulatory mechanism to prevent manipulative research and advises news websites to be cautious when publishing research results.
News Websites Should Be Cautious When Publishing Research Results
Prof. Dr. Süleyman İrvan, Dean of Üsküdar University Faculty of Communication, made evaluations regarding the survey studies conducted on election results.
Full Disclosure Information Should Be Provided in Research Results
Noting that as the countdown to the election continues, almost every day, survey results from a different company are published and an election forecast is announced, Prof. Dr. Süleyman İrvan said:
“These forecasts are also published on the social media accounts of these companies and their users. There are two important guiding institutions regarding polls worldwide. The first of these institutions is the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR). They published ethical principles outlining how research findings should be disseminated. According to these principles, when a research result is announced, full disclosure information must be provided, and this information should include: the name of the company conducting the poll, on whose behalf the poll was conducted, which party or institution financed it, the dates it was carried out in the field, how many people were surveyed (i.e., sample size), the method by which the sample was determined; how the questions were phrased; whether it was conducted by phone or face-to-face, the margin of error (plus or minus), and how undecided voters were distributed. Data announced by research companies that do not provide this information should not be considered reliable. Secondly, we can mention the European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research (ESOMAR). ESOMAR also emphasizes that research companies should provide full disclosure information when announcing research results.”
Turkish Researchers Association Should Warn Research Companies
Prof. Dr. Süleyman İrvan stated that the Turkish Researchers Association (TÜAD), established to regulate and supervise public opinion research in Turkey, should be more active in this process, saying, “At the same time, the accountability of companies claiming to conduct public opinion research must be ensured. TÜAD, which has not issued any warnings or recommendations regarding the last election campaign period, should warn research companies in line with the association's objectives.”
News Websites Should Be Cautious About Research Results
Prof. Dr. Süleyman İrvan also expressed his observations regarding the recent period as follows: “Before reporting research results, news websites must request full disclosure information from research companies and should not report studies they do not find reliable in terms of research technique. Just as it is necessary to avoid fake news consisting of deliberately distorted information and characterized as disinformation, research that gives the impression of having no basis should be approached in the same way.”
Self-Regulation Mechanisms Should Be Established
Prof. Dr. Süleyman İrvan listed the methods to understand the reliability of a survey as follows: “First, as media-literate citizens, just like with other news, we must first look at the source. If the research company is a known one, has performed well in previous elections, and has proven not to be a company aiming to manipulate election results, we can trust its research more. Always look at the full disclosure information of the research in the published news. This information will also give us insights about the research. A new research company might also be conducting proper research. The only way to understand this lies in the completeness of the information about the survey. If we cannot establish self-regulation mechanisms, we cannot prevent manipulative research.”
Voters Should Hold Research Companies Accountable
Prof. Dr. Süleyman İrvan stated that a genuinely conducted research can show the political tendencies at the time it was carried out, adding, “It is possible for a research result announced today to differ from the actual election outcome, because voter preferences can change during the campaign period. Therefore, as citizens, we should use polls to gain information about voter tendencies. However, we should look not only at the results but also at whether the poll is reliable. Although people today tend to accept research results that support their own worldview as correct and those that do not as incorrect, the main point is to evaluate research conducted according to objective criteria and disregard others. In this process, of course, as responsible citizens, we can also compel research companies to be accountable. If you see a research company on social media that only announces results, urge these companies to disclose the full disclosure information of their research. Do not share research you do not find reliable.”