Dr. Güler Kalay, Assistant Director of Üsküdar Üniversitesi Center for Strategic Research, evaluated the reasons for the increase in global geopolitical tensions and possible World War 3 scenarios.
How long have World War 3 discourses existed?
Pointing out that the discourses of World War 3 are not new, Dr. Güler Kalay said, “Although the end of the Cold War strengthened expectations of absolute peace, at least for the first decade, global capital began to rapidly shift towards Asia-Pacific from the early 1990s. This can be seen most clearly in the rise of the Asian Tigers from the crises of the 1990s and China’s unstoppable economic ascent. The victor of the Cold War, the US, which advocated for the continuity of a unipolar world order with its new world order discourses, began to pursue a more aggressive and proactive foreign policy to sustain its hegemonic power in the face of its loss of power in the global economy. This is one of the reasons for today’s proxy wars but has not been able to stop the shift in global capital.”
NATO’s primary objective is to protect American interests
“Coming to the present; the discourses of World War 3 and the narrative that Russia increasingly poses a threat to Europe also reflect efforts to re-strengthen NATO’s original mission,” said Dr. Güler Kalay, explaining that, as is often stated, NATO’s primary objective is to protect American interests, and the perception of Europe being under a security threat enabled NATO’s expansion to include the Baltic countries, bringing Russia’s Baltic border under NATO control.
Global geoeconomic competition leads to the proliferation of proxy wars
Dr. Güler Kalay stated that the sharpening global geoeconomic competition against China's unstoppable economic rise is one of the factors leading to the widespread proliferation of proxy wars, adding, “We can evaluate the Russia-Ukraine War within this framework, and it is highly probable that Ukraine will be the center of the war in the event of a possible World War 3. Looking at previous world wars, one of the most prominent reasons was the issue of capital sharing, while the other was the security of Europe. In this context, Ukraine can be a key point for both actors in the face of China’s rise as a rival hegemonic power and Russia’s rise as an international military and political power. Of course, pro-Western initiatives and political crises in Taiwan, China’s backyard, can also be seen as part of this scenario.”
New Cold War and global power competition…
Dr. Güler Kalay pointed out that as the struggle for global hegemony intensifies, geoeconomic projects that will reshape these dynamics emerge along with geopolitical dynamics. He said, “The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), an US-India project, is part of global competition against China’s Belt and Road Initiative. In the geoeconomic conjuncture created by the New Cold War and global power competition, we see that ‘corridor wars’ have become a part of global hegemonic competition due to the geopolitical position and scale of these projects.”
The starting point of World War 3…
In this context, Dr. Güler Kalay drew attention to the fact that although the primary target of the collective West seems to be Russia and its security perceptions, the real goal is the hegemonic rivalry between China and the US. He stated, “Western capital is fighting an existential battle against the rise of Chinese hegemony, which is expected to end American hegemony. Ukraine is the West’s first gateway to the East, and thus, supported by scenarios of a weak Russia and the encirclement of China, Ukraine is both the center of this rivalry and, in the event of a World War III, most likely its starting point.”
‘Russian threat’ discourses for Europe are a reflection of efforts to create a perception
Dr. Güler Kalay also noted that more players have begun to indirectly participate in the Russia-Ukraine war, stating, “I believe that the ‘Russian threat’ discourses for Europe are a reflection of efforts to create a security perception in Europe. This will create the justification for NATO’s partial or direct participation in the war here. Despite the direct support of EU countries, especially the US, to Ukraine, an outcome unfavorable to Russia cannot be achieved. However, as the cost and burden of the war, which has been ongoing for over 2 years, become heavier for Russia, global polarization increases further. Although the West's aim seems to be to stop Russia's growing military and political power in its region, especially in the Post-Sovet geography, which possesses a large portion of the world's hydrocarbon resources and a significant share in new underground resources in the Arctic, we can say that the primary goal is China's rise in the global economy and the ability to steer the changing geoeconomic conditions of global capital.”
The alliance between Russia and China is strengthening
Dr. Güler Kalay stated that the more an agreement in the Russia-Ukraine war is hindered, the more the alliance between Russia and China strengthens, and he continued:
“Russia's integration into global capital shifting towards Asia-Pacific is also increasing in parallel. Iran is also joining the Russia-China alliance as an important power, becoming the direct owner and controller of the new Moscow-Beijing-Tehran economic corridors in the region. In contrast, although the American-Indian commercial partnership appears as an important alternative project, it is not sufficient for Western capitalists. In this regard, the importance of the Eastern Mediterranean is increasing. Here, Israel, supported by America, is fueling new conflicts with an aggressive foreign policy, indirectly enabling America's return to the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean.”
Can a possible global war be prevented?
Dr. Güler Kalay stated that Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's remarks about a possible World War 3 indicate the risk of increasing competition and proxy wars escalating into a full-scale global conflict in the current conjuncture. He added, “The Ukraine-Russia war evolving from a conflict between two sides to a widespread war involving more international players indicates that the center of a possible World War III will again be Europe. In fact, I believe that Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's statement, 'war discourses should be taken seriously,' should be read as a warning that the increasing global competition in the current conjuncture is at a manageable and steerable stage, and that a possible global war can be prevented.”
New proxy wars could also make preventive diplomacy difficult
Dr. Güler Kalay also explained his views on Russia-China-Iran cooperation as follows:
“Furthermore, the expansion of Russia-China-Iran cooperation towards North Korea and Vietnam; considering the increasing influence of BRICS, America may indirectly or directly support the continuation of existing conflicts and/or the creation of new conflict zones to maintain its hegemony and strengthen its economy, which is largely dependent on the war industry. The recent coup attempt in Bolivia also clearly targets the increasing interest of Latin American Countries in BRICS. The upcoming American elections could also be decisive in shaping the direction of World War III discourses. Trump’s moderate foreign policy, in contrast to Biden’s harsh foreign policy directly supported by the American arms industry, will also affect international relations. Perhaps not a direct World War III, but new proxy wars and 'corridor wars' in geoeconomic competition could reach dimensions that could also complicate preventive diplomacy.”
Turkey’s critical role in building peace through mediation…
“In this environment of increasing international war risks and sharpening polarizations, Turkey's initiatives for conflict-preventive diplomacy and mediation for conflict resolution are extremely important,” said Dr. Güler Kalay, continuing:
“In the geoeconomic conjuncture where global power competition is intensifying, ‘corridor wars’ do not only create a security problem in terms of global trade; these projects also become a part of global hegemonic competition due to their geopolitical position.
Turkey’s national and international role in this competitive environment through ‘trade diplomacy’ can also encompass conflict-preventive diplomacy. Turkey’s connectivity strategy for the Middle Corridor and Zangezur Corridor can have significant impacts on building sustainable peace, both regionally and globally. From this perspective, Turkey could attract more attention as a regional actor capable of creating a global impact in the near future.”
