Political Scientist Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan, evaluating the election results in Northern Cyprus, stated that the election results in Northern Cyprus showed not only a change of government, but also the public's quest for “respect, balance, and autonomy.”
Pointing out that the Erhürman administration aims to establish a new balance based on mutual respect, not conflict with Turkey, Prof. Dr. Arslan said, “This could be a sign of a more cautious yet more institutional period in both domestic and foreign policy.”
Üsküdar Üniversitesi Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Head of the Department of Political Science and International Relations (English), Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan, evaluated the election results in Northern Cyprus.
The Turkish Cypriot people of Northern Cyprus reflected their accumulated reactions in recent years at the ballot box
“The clear victory of Republican Turkish Party (CTP) leader Tufan Erhürman in the elections indicates that the Turkish Cypriot people of Northern Cyprus reflected their accumulated reactions in recent years at the ballot box,” said Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan. “This result can be read as a reaction against a governing style that was fully aligned with Ankara but worn out by corruption allegations in domestic politics. Erhürman's election signals the emergence of a more institutional, balanced, and respectful approach to society's secular sensitivities in Turkish Cypriot politics.”
“Erhürman is sending a message of balance”
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan reminded that during the period of the previous President Ersin Tatar, a foreign policy fully aligned with Turkey was pursued. She added, “However, although Tufan Erhürman intends to continue cooperation with Turkey, he prefers to conduct this relationship ‘on the basis of equality.’ That is to say, not a complete break, but an understanding of a more autonomous relationship based on mutual respect is expected. Erhürman is sending a message of balance by saying, ‘We will be in coordination with Turkey.’”
Election results should be seen as a protest vote
Pointing out that this election was not a direct referendum on a solution model, Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan stated, “However, the results are an expression of the public's discomfort with the current administration and Turkey’s excessive interference in internal affairs, rather than a return to federation. Therefore, this result should be seen more as a ‘protest vote’ than a ‘desire for federation.’”
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan also stated that the low voter turnout indicates the public's general distrust towards politics and existing parties. She commented, “Some voters expressed their reaction by not going to the polls. However, this indifference is not a criticism of the legitimacy of the political system, but rather of the attitude of the governing cadres.”
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan said that Erhürman's words, ‘Our state tradition will continue,’ mean ‘the Turkish Cypriot people will uphold their own institutions, but relations with Turkey will also continue.’ She added, “This should be read as a message of balance that maintains an emphasis on independence while not wanting to sever ties with Turkey.”
Can a more autonomous diplomatic approach be expected in Turkey-TRNC relations?
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan also stated that a more autonomous diplomatic approach can be expected in Turkey-TRNC relations. She remarked, “A more balanced approach is expected in the new era. Erhürman's stance is not against Ankara, but it is also not fully dependent on Ankara. It is thought that the sensitivity regarding interference in internal affairs will be taken into account, and greater importance will be given to the institutional will of the TRNC in decision-making processes.”
Turkey's energy policy in the Eastern Mediterranean remains a strategic priority
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan noted that Turkey's energy policy in the Eastern Mediterranean will continue to be a strategic priority during the Erhürman period. She stated, “However, a difference in discourse and style may be observed in this process. Erhürman may prefer to act on the basis of diplomatic dialogue and law instead of harsh confrontations. That is, not against Turkey’s position, but a softer line in method.”
What does the congratulatory message from the Greek Cypriot Administration leader mean?
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan said that the congratulatory message from the leader of the Greek Cypriot Administration, Nikos Christodoulides, could create a new basis for dialogue between the two sides. She added, “Erhürman is not completely closed to negotiations with the Greek Cypriot side; however, he clearly states that he will not back down on fundamental issues such as ‘equal status’ and ‘security guarantees.’”
Prof. Dr. Havva Kök Arslan, pointing out that Erhürman proposes a negotiation process based on the recognition of two equal parties, commented, “This approach could contribute to opening a new chapter within the UN framework; however, it seems difficult for the Greek Cypriot side to accept these proposals. Nevertheless, Erhürman's diplomatic language could make Turkey’s theses more acceptable internationally.”
The Erhürman administration aims to establish a new balance, not conflict, with Turkey
Stating that the election result in Northern Cyprus showed not only a change of government but also the public's quest for ‘respect, balance, and autonomy,’ Prof. Dr. Arslan concluded, “The Erhürman administration aims to establish a new balance based on mutual respect, not conflict with Turkey. This could be a sign of a more cautious yet more institutional period in both domestic and foreign policy.”