Discussions regarding the declaration prepared by 104 retired admirals about the Montreux Convention on the Turkish Straits continue on every platform. On the 24th anniversary of February 28, at the e-conference titled “How to Prevent Coup-Oriented Staffing?” organized by ASSAM and ASDER, which addressed coups and their history, Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan had stated ‘Coups sleep but do not die’. In his speech there, Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan also emphasized the importance of taking precautions to prevent coups, underlining that it is events, not history, that repeat…
At the e-conference titled “How to Prevent Coup-Oriented Staffing?”, hosted by Üsküdar Üniversitesi and organized by ASSAM (Association of Defenders of Justice Strategic Research Center) and ASDER (Association of Defenders of Justice), Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan drew attention to the following topics:
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan: “After July 15, we made Critical Thinking a compulsory course”
Founding Rector of Üsküdar Üniversitesi, Psychiatrist Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan, reminded that he wrote a book on the psychology of coups in 2017 after the July 15 coup attempt, stating, “I tried to analyze the psychological, mental, and sociological ground that nourished FETÖ. In fact, the ‘Critical Thinking’ course was an elective at our university, but after July 15, we added it as a compulsory course to some departments. This is because when there is no critical thinking, a savior expectation emerges in society. In messianic cultures, there is a savior expectation like ‘Let the Mahdi come and save us’. Unfortunately, this is very common in the Islamic world. People do nothing but wait for someone to come and save them. I addressed the concept of the Immaculate Imam in that book. The perception of an uncriticized leader will be a typical perception that initiates the emergence of new FETÖ members. I tried to emphasize these in the book.”
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan: “One must consider the worst-case scenario”
Highlighting the political psychology aspect of coups, Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan said, “Political psychology is important in this respect: we must consider the worst-case scenario. In the good scenario, the armed forces have largely renewed themselves. But there cannot be just one scenario. We must take the worst-case scenarios into account, but then focus on the best-case scenario and proceed on our path. If we constantly think about bad scenarios, we cannot do anything. We will become a society living with crises. It is said that history repeats itself, but in fact, it is events, not history, that repeat. When events repeat, we perceive it as history repeating itself.”
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan: “Sultan Abdülhamid could not grasp the spirit of the age”
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan noted that the last period of the Ottoman Empire was like a socio-psychological laboratory, saying, “During Sultan Abdülhamid’s difficult reign of over 30 years, there was a very successful administration, but his suppression of the spirit of the age and his autocratic approach caused him to miss the globally emerging spirit of the age with the French revolutions. The voice of the young generations rose during that period. Young generations were calling for liberty, brotherhood, equality, and justice. With these discourses, the need for change arose. Sultan Abdülhamid, as a smart leader, saw this and declared the constitutional monarchy. However, one year after the declaration of the constitutional monarchy, the March 31 Incident occurred. Some people took to the streets in Istanbul, saying they wanted Sharia law. Within a year, anti-constitutional monarchy voices rose. Their demands were for the abolition of the constitutional monarchy, and while saying they wanted Sharia, they actually wanted the sultanate. A situation we can call ‘the resistance of tradition to the future’ was experienced. Deep structures took advantage of this situation. For 10 days of the 13-day March 31 uprising, there was no intervention. The events were ended in the last three days by the 'Action Army' that arrived from Thessaloniki.”
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan stated that the politicization of the army, the Balkan defeats, the failure of Mahmut Şevket Pasha, and the takeover of state administration by the Unionist cadres without state experience 3-4 years later, prepared the end of the world state, and said that this is referred to as psychohistory in psychology.
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan: “True leadership involves the ability to predict”
Noting that the failure to calculate coup and counter-coup capabilities disrupted all plans, Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan said, “The Sublime State could not be protected with good intentions and hard work alone. True leadership actually involves the ability to predict. If this ability is absent, the events that occur lead the leader. If there is predictability, the leader begins to manage events. Survey studies on global trends are conducted every year. Scenarios are created according to the direction of global trends. Taking global trends into account is very important. Sociological trends, demands for liberty, power-focused approaches, the belief that things can be controlled through authority, pressure, and manipulations, and the increase in opposing reactions led to social ruptures. This resulted not in the transformation of a great empire, but its collapse.”
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan: “If we learn lessons, events will not repeat”
Asking, “What lessons should be learned to prevent events from repeating as we come to the present day?”, Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan said, “The youth raised by the great sultan first buried him, and then the Ottoman Empire. If we learn lessons from these, events will not repeat. US President Trump, acting with his high ego, mobilized the masses one day before the final decision regarding him was made. In those events, 4 people lost their lives. The Capitol riot, which is considered a disgrace in US history, took place and entered a trial process. We can perhaps say that commerce and politics were mixed.”
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan: “An example of political blindness…”
Noting that a coup is always a close and reasonable threat in this geography, Tarhan said, “The form and method of the coup can change. It could be a postmodern coup. It could be a financial coup. In Turkey, more economic coups are being attempted. Turkey has not knelt to these coup attempts so far. While continuing this resistance, we must consider the best and worst-case scenarios for 2023. The late Menderes was informed by Alparslan Türkeş in the winter of 1960 that there were coup preparations. When he called Ethem Menderes and asked, he was told that all generals had been consulted and there was no coup attempt. He showed the soldier at the door to the person who brought the news and said, ‘Is this one going to stage a coup against me?’ This event went down in history as an example of political blindness.”
Tarhan: “A structure within Turkey should not be given the opportunity and capability to stage a coup”
Noting that all opportunities and capabilities for a coup existed before July 15, 2016, Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan said, “Opportunities and capabilities develop over decades, but intentions can change in a day. A structure within Turkey should not be given the opportunity and capability to stage a coup. Currently, what opportunities and capabilities for staging a coup exist in Turkey needs to be discussed. After July 15, we realized that the Ergenekon cases were actually deep state cases. The deep state influenced the state and decision-makers to stage coups and interventions. However, after July 15, we understood that FETÖ had taken over the deep state. This structure also similarly took over the Special Warfare Department. After July 15, those within the FETÖ structure were largely purged from the Special Warfare Department, but we need to consider who came in their place. We don't know if individuals with a pro-coup ideology came in their place. This is an important question mark.”
Referring to the July 15 coup attempt, Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan said, “Turkey’s departure from the control of globalist powers activated their hands within us. It was an unsuccessful attempt. A reaction that will go down in history was formed with the leadership of our President. The public was already fed up with coups. Many people whose uncles or fathers were imprisoned during May 27 and September 12 reflexively took to the streets that day. In fact, while minds were preoccupied with the deep state case, a structure, an Atlanticist staffing led by FETÖ, seemed to have taken over the state’s institutions.”
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan: “A 4-scenario report on Turkey was published”
Tarhan noted that RAND Corporation, a kind of brainstorming organization for America’s largest secret service, published a report on Turkey, stating, “4 scenarios are presented regarding Turkey. The first; Ankara may continue a knife-edge policy as a challenging ally for the US, while remaining tied to NATO. In the second scenario; Ankara, while pursuing a knife-edge balance policy between the Atlantic and Eurasia, could shift towards Eurasia at any moment. In the third scenario, the opposition or the military could come to power. In the fourth scenario, it is stated that Turkey could leave NATO. There is no longer any trust in the North Atlantic alliance among the public and the military bureaucracy. The world's center of gravity has begun to shift towards the East. Parallel to this situation, the view that with July 15, a shift from the deep state - North Atlantic axis to Eurasia began, is noteworthy. Especially as seen in the Ergenekon case, the FETÖ organization had taken over deep structures, and now dominance over Eurasianist cadres is possible. We need to consider whether these cadres have the opportunity and capability to stage a coup.” He added that this report could also express the intention of creating tension by touching the raw nerves of the Westernist segment.
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan: “A coup sleeps but does not die”
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan noted that an artificial chaos was created on March 31, saying, “The public actually does not have such a tradition. There has never been such a civilian uprising of this magnitude in the Ottoman Empire. If there is a possibility of a new coup, Eurasianist cadres must be kept in mind. Let's not forget that the Secretary General of the NSC openly advocated Eurasianism during the February 28, 1997 period. It should also be remembered that the 'sacking' incident was a warning against the Eurasianist military bureaucracy. Against that, one should consider that Atlanticist cadres used FETÖ in some way to prevent Eurasianist cadres from coming to power.
Do the people closest to coup-oriented staffing in our army have the opportunity and capability to stage a coup? Granting this authority would be a historical mistake. We need to question whether this internal hand is from the North Far East, whether it influences ambitious individuals, or whether it can make cadres commit errors with false promises. This nation can succeed in taking risks for democracy, but why should civilians climb onto tanks? Today, not seeing and preventing the coup-oriented staffing in our army is no different from not seeing one's executioners. This should also be considered as an option. The general who said February 28 would last a thousand years was right, in my opinion. Because coupism does not die. Even Sultan Abdülaziz experienced palace coups during the Ottoman period. A coup sleeps but does not die, we need to know this.”
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan: “We did not fall for the game on July 15, and we should not now”
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan noted that some groups politicizing religion and politics in Syria took up arms, and now the situation of that country is evident, stating, “We did not fall for the game of global powers trying to make Turkey like Syria on July 15, and we should not now. An environment of liberty is sufficient for Muslims. The involvement of people outside the chain of command in the state’s area of responsibility is a cause for discord. Currently, there are rumors that religious groups are forming secret armed forces. We know that these rumors are baseless. Eliminating this anxiety is necessary for social peace. Finally, moving forward with steps towards the future with lessons learned from history happens with wisdom and consultation, not with ambition for success, heroism, and warrior-like emotions. Thus, political blindness will not occur. Coup provocations can be seen by politics. It is necessary to be careful against those trying to push Turkey towards Eurasianist axes.”