Üsküdar Üniversitesi hosted the e-conference titled “How to Prevent Coup-Oriented Staffing?”, organized by ASSAM and ASDER on the 24th anniversary of February 28, where coups and their history were discussed. Stating that coups sleep but never die, and emphasizing the importance of taking measures to prevent them, Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan underlined the necessity of learning from history. Noting that it is not history but events that repeat, Tarhan said, “Moving forward with correct steps into the future, guided by lessons learned from history, is achieved not by ambition for success, heroism, and warrior spirit, but by reason and consultation. This way, political blindness does not occur.”
The e-conference titled “How to Prevent Coup-Oriented Staffing?”, organized by ASSAM (Justice Defenders Strategic Research Center Association) and ASDER (Justice Defenders Association), was held online as part of pandemic measures. The program, held on the 24th anniversary of February 28, which took place 24 years ago, drew attention to the coups and coup attempts experienced by Turkey. Measures to be taken to prevent similar coups and coup attempts from happening again were discussed in many aspects.
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan: “After July 15, we made Critical Thinking a compulsory course”
Üsküdar Üniversitesi Founding Rector, Psychiatrist Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan, reminded that he wrote a book on the psychology of coups in 2017 after the July 15 coup attempt, saying, “I tried to analyze the psychological, mental, and sociological ground that nourished FETÖ. In fact, the ‘Critical Thinking’ course was an elective at our university, but after July 15, we added it as a compulsory course to some departments. Because when there is no critical thinking, a savior expectation emerges in society. In messianic cultures, there is a savior expectation of ‘Let the Mahdi come and save us.’ Unfortunately, this is very common in the Islamic world. People do nothing but wait for someone to come and save them. I addressed the concept of the Infallible Imam in that book. The perception of an uncritical leader will be a typical perception that initiates the emergence of new FETÖ members. I tried to emphasize these in the book.”
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan: “We need to consider the worst-case scenario”
Drawing attention to the political psychology aspect of coups, Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan said, “Political psychology is important in this regard; we need to consider the worst-case scenario. In the good scenario, the armed forces have largely renewed themselves. But there cannot be only one scenario. We need to consider the worst-case scenarios but then focus on the best-case scenario and proceed on our path. If we constantly think about bad scenarios, we cannot do anything. We become a society living with crises. It is said that history repeats itself, but in fact, it is not history but events that repeat. When events repeat, we perceive it as history repeating itself.”
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan: “Sultan Abdülhamid failed to grasp the spirit of the era”
Noting that the late Ottoman period was like a socio-psychology laboratory, Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan said, “Sultan Abdulhamid had a very successful administration during his challenging period of over 30 years, but his suppression of the spirit of the era and his autocratic approach caused him to miss the globally emerging spirit of the era with the French revolutions. The voice of the young generations rose during that period. The young generations spoke of liberty, fraternity, equality, and justice. These discourses created a need for change. Sultan Abdulhamid, as a wise leader, saw this and declared the constitutional monarchy. However, one year after the declaration of the constitutional monarchy, the March 31 Incident occurred. Some people took to the streets in Istanbul, stating they wanted Sharia. Within a year, anti-constitutional monarchy voices rose. Their demands were for the abolition of the constitutional monarchy, and while saying they wanted Sharia, they actually wanted the sultanate. A situation that we can call ‘the resistance of tradition to the future’ was experienced. Deep structures capitalized on this situation and intervened. The March 31 uprising, which lasted 13 days, saw no intervention for 10 days. The events were ended by the Action Army, which arrived from Thessaloniki, in the last three days.”
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan stated that the politicization of the army, the Balkan defeats, the failure of Mahmut Şevket Pasha, and the takeover of state administration by the inexperienced Committee of Union and Progress (CUP) cadre 3-4 years later, prepared the end of the global state, and said that this is referred to as psychohistory in psychology.
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan: “True leadership involves the ability to predict”
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan noted that the failure to calculate coup and counter-coup capabilities disrupted all plans, saying, “The Ottoman State could not be protected by good intentions and hard work. True leadership actually involves the ability to predict. If this ability is lacking, events manage the leader. If there is predictability, the leader starts to manage events. Survey studies on global trends are conducted every year. Scenarios are created according to the direction of global trends. It is very important to take global trends into account. Sociological trends, demands for liberty, power-focused approaches, the belief that things can be controlled with authority, pressure, and manipulations, and the increase in opposing reactions led to social ruptures. This resulted in the collapse, not the transformation, of a great empire.”
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan: “If we learn lessons, events will not repeat”
Asking, “What lessons should be learned to prevent events from repeating as we come to the present day?”, Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan said, “The youth raised by the great sultan first buried him and then the Ottoman Empire into history. If we learn lessons from these, events will not repeat. US President Trump, acting with his high ego, mobilized the masses one day before the final decision regarding him was made. Four people lost their lives in those events. The Capitol riot, considered a disgrace in US history, took place and entered the impeachment process. We can perhaps say that trade and politics were mixed.”
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan: “An example of political blindness…”
Tarhan noted that coups are always a close and plausible threat in this geography, saying, “The form and method of a coup can change. It could be a postmodern coup. It could be a financial coup. In Turkey, economic coups are more often attempted. Turkey has not kneeled to these coup attempts until today. While continuing this resistance, we need to consider the best and worst-case scenarios for 2023. The late Menderes was informed by Alparslan Türkeş in the winter of 1960 that there were coup preparations. When he called Ethem Menderes and asked, he was told that all generals had been consulted and there was no such thing as a coup attempt. He showed the soldier at the door to the person who brought the news and said, ‘Is this one going to stage a coup against me?’ This incident went down in history as an example of political blindness.”
Tarhan: “A structure within Turkey should not be given the means and capability to stage a coup”
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan noted that all means and capabilities for a coup existed before July 15, 2016, saying, “Means and capabilities are built over decades, but intent can change in a day. A structure within Turkey should not be given the means and capability to stage a coup. Currently, what structures in Turkey have the means and capability to stage a coup needs to be discussed. After July 15, we realized that the Ergenekon cases were actually deep state cases. The deep state used to influence the state and decision-makers to carry out coups and interventions. However, after July 15, we understood that FETÖ had seized control of the deep state. This structure had similarly seized control of the Special Warfare Department. After July 15, those within the FETÖ structure in the Special Warfare Department were largely purged, but we need to consider who replaced them. We don’t know if individuals with a coup-oriented ideology replaced them. This is an important question mark.”
Addressing the July 15 coup attempt, Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan said, “Turkey’s move beyond the control of global powers activated their internal proxies. It was an unsuccessful attempt. A response that will go down in history was formed with the leadership of our President. The public was already fed up with coups. Many people whose uncles or fathers were imprisoned on May 27 and September 12 reflexively took to the streets that day. In fact, while minds were busy with the deep state case, a structure with Atlanticist staffing, led by FETÖ, seemed to have taken over state structures.”
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan: “A 4-scenario report on Turkey was published”
Tarhan noted that RAND Corporation, a kind of brainstorming organization for America’s largest secret service, published a report on Turkey, saying, “Four scenarios regarding Turkey are presented. The first: Ankara can continue a razor-edge policy as a NATO ally but a challenging one for the US. In the second scenario, Ankara, while pursuing a razor-edge balance policy between the Atlantic and Eurasia, could shift towards Eurasia at any moment. In the third scenario, the opposition or the military could come to power, and in the fourth scenario, Turkey could leave NATO. There is no longer trust in the North Atlantic alliance among the public and the military bureaucracy. The world’s center of gravity has begun to shift eastward. Parallel to this situation, the view that a shift from the deep state – North Atlantic axis to Eurasia began with July 15 is noteworthy. Especially, as seen in the Ergenekon case, the FETÖ organization had seized control of deep structures, but now dominance over Eurasianist cadres is possible. We need to consider whether these cadres have the means and capability to stage a coup.” He also added that this report might express an intention to create tension by touching the raw nerves of the Westernist segment.
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan: “A coup sleeps but never dies”
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan noted that an artificial chaos was created on March 31, saying, “The public actually has no such tradition. There has never been such an uprising by civilians to this extent in the Ottoman Empire. If there is a possibility of a new coup, Eurasianist cadres need to be considered. Let’s not forget that the Secretary General of the NSC openly advocated Eurasianism during the February 28, 1997, period. It should also be remembered that the ‘hooding’ incident was a warning against the Eurasianist military bureaucracy. Against that, one should consider that Atlanticist cadres somehow used FETÖ to prevent Eurasianist cadres from coming to power.
Do the people closest to coup-oriented staffing in our army have the means and capability to stage a coup? Granting this authority would be a historical mistake. We need to question whether this internal hand is from the North Far East, whether it influences those with ambition, and whether it can make cadres make mistakes with false promises. This nation manages to take risks for democracy, but why should civilians climb on tanks? Not seeing and preventing coup-oriented staffing in our army today means no different than not seeing one’s executioners. This should also be considered as an option. I think the general who said February 28 would last a thousand years was right. Because coupism never dies. Even Sultan Abdülaziz was subjected to palace coups during the Ottoman period. A coup sleeps but never dies; we must know this.”
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan: “We did not fall for the trick on July 15, and we should not now”
Prof. Dr. Nevzat Tarhan noted that some groups in Syria politicized religion and politics, took up arms, and the situation of that country is now clearly evident, stating, “We did not fall for the game of global powers who want to make Turkey like Syria on July 15, and we should not now. An environment of freedom is sufficient for Muslims. The involvement of people outside the chain of command in the state’s area of responsibility is a cause for discord. Currently, there are rumors that religious groups are forming a secret armed army. We know that these rumors are baseless. Eliminating this anxiety is necessary for social peace. Finally, moving forward with correct steps into the future, guided by lessons learned from history, is achieved not by ambition for success, heroism, and warrior spirit, but by reason and consultation. This way, political blindness does not occur. Coup provocations can be foreseen by politicians. It is necessary to be careful against those who try to push Turkey towards Eurasian axes.”
Adnan Tanrıverdi: “With the measures taken, an actual military coup is now closed off from the stage of history”
ASSAM Board Chairman, Retired Brigadier General Adnan Tanrıverdi, spoke about past coups and coup attempts. Recalling the March 27, 1960 coup, the March 12, 1971 memorandum, the September 12, 1980 coup, the February 28, 1997 postmodern coup, and finally the July 15, 2016 coup attempts, Adnan Tanrıverdi stated that measures were taken against these coups and coup attempts. Tanrıverdi noted that necessary changes were made in the National Security Council and the Supreme Military Council. Observing past coups, Tanrıverdi stated that a coup has three pillars: “First, an unstable political environment. Second, political justifications. And third, ideological staffing.” Adnan Tanrıverdi noted that various measures have been taken to prevent these coups from occurring today, saying, “I accept that with the measures taken today, an actual military coup is now closed off from the stage of history. Because measures have been taken and legislation is in place based on the outcomes of past coups. Of course, this does not mean we should abandon vigilance. Civil society organizations and our people will definitely stand by the national will. In other words, they will not reward any coup. The nation must protect its will. The nation wants to be governed by the cadres it has chosen. It will not accept intervention in this.”
Adnan Tanrıverdi: “Turkey is obliged to be a global power”
Adnan Tanrıverdi noted that Turkey, due to its geopolitical location, is at the target point of global powers, saying, “You will be in the middle of three continents. You will be in the middle of the transportation system, you will be in a position to dominate energy resources, you will have a history… Instead of Eurasia and the Atlantic, we called it ASRİKA; Turkey has the potential to unite the ASRİKA geography. Today, our soldiers are active on three continents. We are in Azerbaijan, Iraq, Syria, the Gulf, Africa, Libya, Sudan. We have armed forces there. We are effective in these regions. Turkey is obliged to be a global power.”
Metin Külünk: “Labeling FETÖ’s uprising as a coup would be a serious strategic mistake”
24th, 25th, and 26th Term AK Party Deputy Metin Külünk stated that past coups and coup attempts should be thoroughly analyzed to prevent coups. Külünk said, “FETÖ is not yet fully understood in Turkey. It has not been discussed comprehensively. Especially if we confine FETÖ’s uprising to the definition of a coup, we will make a very serious strategic mistake. We should ask this question: who is this organization, how did it acquire its human resources, how did it recruit them, what kind of human training policy does it have? How did this organization take the children of these lands, turn them into agents under the command of international intelligence organizations, and instill in them the ability to willingly, almost with pleasure, work against their own country, their own state, their own flag, their own freedom, their country’s freedom, using what model?”
Külünk noted that February 28 was a postmodern occupation attempt that paved the way for FETÖ, saying, “In my opinion, it had more severe consequences than the one-party Chiefdom era and broke the resistance of conservatives, the religious people, and the people of Anatolia in Turkey against Neoliberalism, seriously negatively affecting their resistance to Neoliberalism. And the global dominators used February 28 as an extremely critical instrument to make the people of Anatolia in Turkey resemble them.” Metin Külünk stated that universities should conduct serious studies to understand the truths about FETÖ.
Metin Külünk said, “In the upcoming process, I believe we need to discuss the need for a new structure, under the title of an organization for protecting the constitution, along with a new civilian constitution, that will intervene in threats and dangers directly concerning the state’s security and existence, whether hidden within legitimate boundaries or not, for the independence and existence of the state and our survival in these lands.”
Prof. Dr. Kazım Uysal: “February 28 paved the way for FETÖ”
Kütahya Dumlupınar University Rector Prof. Dr. Kazım Uysal stated that the Refahyol government was removed from power during the February 28 coup, saying, “Banks were plundered, Imam Hatip schools and many religious groups were hit by the coup. In this suitable environment, unfortunately, FETÖ, the new Trojan horse of the Crusader mentality, was nurtured. In other words, February 28 paved the way for FETÖ, and FETÖ bore fruit.” Uysal said, “If we are to continue and are continuing our Islamic mission, if the banner-bearing of Islam has fallen to us, and if they have resentment, then coups will change form, change methods, but they will not end.”
Prof. Dr. Kazım Uysal likened coup plotters to a virus, saying, “These coup plotters and the coup mentality are like a virus. They mutate. They mutate in such a way that they change methods, and their pathogenicity increases. They catch you at unexpected times, and unfortunately, if we are unprepared, if we have not strengthened our immune system, our defense system, they make us sick. They can even kill us.”
Retired Colonel Mustafa Hacımustafaoğulları: “Measures must be taken against coups”
ASDER Vice President, Retired Colonel Mustafa Hacımustafaoğulları, stated that the national will is fundamental in a democratic system, saying, “The political power representing the national will is also the highest power of this state, representing the nation.” Hacımustafaoğulları stated that the necessary measures to prevent coups would be taken and emphasized the need for caution and vigilance. Retired Colonel Mustafa Hacımustafaoğulları noted that periods of political instability have been the most important justification for coups, adding, “Social unrest and chaotic environments have been an invaluable asset for them.”