Evaluating the attack on the concert hall in Moscow, Prof. Dr. Deniz Ülke Arıboğan said, “The Hamas attack, with the subsequent reaction, had given Russia a chance to breathe; now, the ISIS attack could put an oxygen tank on Israel. An interesting equation.”
Prof. Dr. Arıboğan: “When we say ISIS, let's also remember that the mind feeding, nurturing, and keeping it alive also fuels terrorism against Turkey, again through ISIS (both Islamist terror itself and the antithesis of Kurdish fighters fighting for the West placed against it). In other words, depending on Putin's reaction, the repercussions could touch us again.”
Prof. Dr. Deniz Ülke Arıboğan, Dean of the Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences (İTFB) at Üsküdar Üniversitesi, evaluated the attack on a concert hall in Moscow, which claimed the lives of dozens of people.
“Russia is a country experienced in being subjected to such actions”
“Although the Moscow attack is shocking for the whole world, it is actually not unexpected,” said Prof. Dr. Deniz Ülke Arıboğan, reminding that Russia is a country experienced in being subjected to urban-centered and highly destructive actions.
“The actions might continue…”
Prof. Dr. Deniz Ülke Arıboğan stated, “They are at war both externally and internally. The action appears to be more complicated and destructive than it currently seems. A chain of actions might also be at play. In other words, there could be more to come.”
Prof. Dr. Deniz Ülke Arıboğan, analyzing the possibilities, listed her analyses as follows:
“1-US and Western diplomatic missions have recently received a warning that extremist organizations were planning terrorist acts. This means intelligence services detected preparations for the act. This also indicates that those who carried out this act are known.
“The US administration's attempt to clear Ukraine shows the criticality of the situation”
2-If Ukraine is in the background, a very harsh retaliation, similar to Israel's reaction to the Hamas attack, can be expected. Terrorist acts serve to legitimize reactions. The US, which recognizes Israel's legitimate right to self-defense, will find it difficult to question Russia's legitimacy. The US administration's attempt to clear Ukraine without any evidence and even without offering condolences yet, shows the criticality of the situation.
“Including Wagner soldiers, within the realm of possibility…”
3-Its occurrence immediately after Putin's victorious elections also puts on the table the possibility of an action related to the internal political situation. The perpetrators appear to be highly trained soldiers; including Wagner soldiers, it is within the realm of possibility.
The use of Islamist militants as proxies…
4-In case of activity in Idlib, we can say that ISIS affiliates will be pointed to as perpetrators. Using Islamist militants as proxies is considered customary.
“The war could expand towards western Ukraine…”
5-NATO is seeking entry to the Black Sea via Romania. It is building its largest base in Europe on the Black Sea with a $2.5 billion investment. The action could trigger Russia's preemptive geopolitical attack, and the war could expand towards western Ukraine.
6-The attack, coming after Macron's strong stance, could also lead to France being in a difficult position.
“We have entered a period where we are walking on thin ice…”
7-Terrorist acts aim not for impact, but for the creation of a reaction. Large attacks also create expectations of a large reaction. We have entered a period where we are walking on thin ice.”
“The attack appears to be ISIS/DAESH-sourced”
Prof. Dr. Deniz Ülke Arıboğan, Dean of the Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences (İTFB) at Üsküdar Üniversitesi, emphasized that according to the latest information, the Moscow attack appears to be ISIS/DAESH-sourced, collectively evaluating points 1-4 and 7 from the possibilities analysis.
Prof. Dr. Deniz Ülke Arıboğan continued as follows:
1-International attacks carried out by ISIS outside the Middle East region are actions where it is used/undertaken as a proxy. Intelligence services are behind them, and they are a tool for mutual retaliations in the East-West rivalry, which is now evolving into a Cold War model. It cannot act on its own, cannot provide logistical support, and cannot sustain its existence.
“The ISIS attack could put an oxygen tank on Israel. An interesting equation…”
2-The aim of the attack might be for Putin to engage in an unconscious and disproportionate reaction similar to Netanyahu's, and for Russia's Middle East front to be reactivated. Russia's influence on the Ukrainian front, which had become invisible and was gaining ground since Israel's Gaza offensive, might be intended to be halted by the reopening of the Second Front. By reactivating the relatively stagnant situation in Syria, the aim might be to transform Israel back into an ally needed by the West, to remind of the Russian threat, and to push Gaza into the background in Western public opinion. The Hamas attack, with the subsequent reaction, had given Russia a chance to breathe; now, the ISIS attack could put an oxygen tank on Israel. An interesting equation.
“Putin is someone who ‘eats his revenge cold’…”
3-Considering Putin is a cold-blooded politician, there is a possibility that retaliation, at some point, again through ISIS, could target Western capitals, primarily French territory, in my opinion. Macron had already pushed his country to the front lines of the conflict with his recent statement. The reactivation of Syria might not be to Putin's advantage. Let's remember that Putin is someone who ‘eats his revenge cold’ when it comes to vengeance.
“The repercussions could again touch us (Turkey)”
4-Keeping the idea of "Islamist terror" alive in collective memory is the most valuable tool for the consolidation of Western public opinion and the acceptance of US leadership. This cognitive orientation is also essential for Israel. When we say ISIS, let's also remember that the mind feeding, nurturing, and keeping it alive also fuels terrorism against Turkey, again through ISIS (both Islamist terror itself and the antithesis of Kurdish fighters fighting for the West placed against it). In other words, depending on Putin's reaction, the repercussions could touch us again.”