As the Iran-Israel war enters its fifth day, the tension continues to escalate. Political Scientist Dr. Lecturer Fehmi Ağca, evaluating the Iran-Israel war, stated that Israel's targeting of only military leaders and not yet high-level political leaders indicates that it does not have a goal of changing the regime in Iran.
Dr. Lecturer Fehmi Ağca said, “If Iran did not have a nuclear weapons development project, Israel would not target Iran and would not carry out such an attack. For the US and Israel, the primary threat is not the Iranian regime, but the possibility of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons capability. If Iran's capability is eliminated and it agrees to an agreement as desired by the US, there will be no need for this war to continue.”
Dr. Lecturer Fehmi Ağca from Üsküdar Üniversitesi, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Department of Political Science and International Relations (English), evaluated the Iran-Israel war.
Iran will quickly fill the void
Dr. Lecturer Fehmi Ağca stated that the killing of Iran's high-ranking military commanders as a result of the air attacks carried out by the Israeli air force on the first night could cause a weakness in Iran's military leadership for a short period, adding, “However, it is believed that this weakness will be quickly overcome with appointments made in a very short time from among the lower-ranking personnel who have sufficient experience within the military hierarchy. Indeed, the necessary appointments were made within two days. The killing of nuclear scientists, on the other hand, could create a short-term weakness in Iran's scientific and technological capacity and cause delays in Iran's nuclear program. However, in a country with a deeply rooted state tradition like Iran, scientific and technological capacity is not solely dependent on a specific number of scientists. Young scientists coming up will replace those who die by assassination or natural causes. For this purpose, it is believed that an educational infrastructure has been established to compensate for the shortage of scientists that may arise for various reasons,” he said.
Attacks increase support for the regime
Dr. Lecturer Fehmi Ağca also stated that Israel's targeting of only military leaders and not yet high-level political leaders indicates that it does not have a goal of changing the regime in Iran, adding, “On the other hand, assassination attempts against high-level military or political leaders will cause the Iranian people to give more support to the regime.”
Western powers, especially the US, support Israel
Dr. Lecturer Fehmi Ağca also stated that the main strategic motivation behind Israel's attacking such open and high-level targets is its determination to completely eliminate Iran's nuclear weapons capability, adding, “Because it is evaluated that the biggest threat to Israel's existence would be a nuclear attack. On the other hand, Western powers, primarily the US, and especially countries like the UK and Germany, support Israeli aggression by declaring Israel's right to self-defense and provide direct arms and ammunition support to Israel. Thanks to the support of Western states, Israel's operational capacity, which attacked with 200 aircraft on the first day of the war, is seen to be quite high,” he said.
Iran in great weakness regarding counter-intelligence
Dr. Lecturer Fehmi Ağca also explained that Israel's killing of Iran's military leaders and nuclear scientists with great precision shows that Israel's intelligence organization MOSSAD has a very strong intelligence network within Iran, and that Iran is in a great state of weakness, especially regarding counter-intelligence, and continued:
“Furthermore, it shows that the political leadership has not learned from past events and that sufficient measures were not taken to protect high-level officials and critical scientists during a highly sensitive period when the probability of an Israeli attack was very high. It is understood that Iran's operational military capacity, and especially its air defense systems, were neutralized during the air attacks carried out by Israel with the electronic warfare support of the US. Iran's failure to consider this possibility beforehand and take the necessary precautions can be evaluated as strategic shortsightedness.”
Israel has a highly effective air defense system
Dr. Lecturer Fehmi Ağca also noted that Iran's reaction to Israel can be said to have limited effects on Israel, stating, “Thanks to Israel's highly effective air defense system, a very large portion of ballistic missile and drone attacks by Iran are neutralized in the air, and a limited number of missiles are observed to have penetrated the Iron Dome and reached their targets. However, Iran could cause significant damage to Israel's military and economic targets by using its more effective hypersonic missiles to bypass the Israeli air defense system. It is understood that Israel is willing to take this risk,” he said.
No power wants a global war
Dr. Lecturer Fehmi Ağca also pointed out that the first priority of US foreign policy towards the Middle East is Israel's security, and continued:
“For this reason, the US will continue to unconditionally support Israel despite all its actions contrary to international law. It will especially continue its military weapons, equipment, and ammunition support and intelligence sharing. Therefore, it is assessed that it will continue its support to Israel until Iran's nuclear infrastructure is completely eliminated.
What is the stance of Russia and China?
It can be said that global actors like Russia and China will not give a significant reaction to Israel's attack other than condemnation. They will probably advise and urge Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons production project and reach an agreement with the US as soon as possible. It is assessed that, in the current situation, no power wants a global war and wishes for this war to stop as soon as possible.”
Iran's nuclear weapons development project is the target
Dr. Lecturer Fehmi Ağca also emphasized that Israel perceives all existing states in the Middle East as a threat, stating, “Therefore, it sometimes uses its military power, and sometimes backs by the US's military and political power, to pressure the governments of target countries or force a change in administration. The most significant threat for Israel is actually Egypt and Syria, its land neighbors. Since these two countries currently lack the capability for military action against Israel and the political will, Iran has emerged as the most important strategic threat. If Iran did not have a nuclear weapons development project, Israel would not target Iran and would not carry out such an attack. For the US and Israel, the primary threat is not the Iranian regime, but the possibility of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons capability. If Iran's capability is eliminated and it agrees to an agreement as desired by the US, there will be no need for this war to continue,” he said.
War can continue until Iran's nuclear program is completely destroyed
Dr. Lecturer Fehmi Ağca, explaining that if Iran can largely damage Israel's military and economic facilities and, in particular, neutralize the operational capability of Israel's air force, which is its most effective power against Iran, by destroying military and civilian airports, a reconciliation with the US could be reached urgently without further prolongation of the war, concluded his words as follows:
“At this point, the political decision of the US will gain importance. In such a scenario, the US could actually participate in the war alongside Israel and continue the war until Iran's nuclear program is completely destroyed. Thus, it could try to eliminate Iran's capacity to block oil shipments from Gulf countries by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Such a development could ensure that Iran accepts the agreement conditions put forth by the US and that the war ends in this manner.”