Dr. Güler Kalay, Deputy Director of Üsküdar Üniversitesi Political Psychology Application and Research Center, stated that the wave of conflict that began on October 7 in the Gaza Strip will cause the Palestinian people's long-standing righteous cause to be moved to a different arena. She evaluated, “Although the Al-Aqsa Flood caused a great loss to Israel, we can say that Israel, with the counter-operation it immediately launched in response – Iron Swords – has not suffered a defeat against Hamas, but rather seized a great opportunity.” Kalay added, “Because; through this, Israel has directly declared an actual war and launched its operation; This operation will not be limited to Gaza.” Güler noted that the clear targeting of the Palestinian people indicates a sign of ethnic cleansing, and that attacks targeting civilians are likely to occur in the coming days.
Dr. Güler Kalay, Deputy Director of Üsküdar Üniversitesi Political Psychology Application and Research Center, stated that October 7, 2023, will be remembered as a day when global competition reached its highest level, deeply impacting the political history of the Middle East; and also as a day when Palestine's political struggle of over 50 years came to an end.
Kalay pointed out that the 'Al-Aqsa Flood' operation, which took the Palestine (Arab)-Israel (Jewish) conflict to a new dimension, was perhaps the expected outcome of Israel's persistent avoidance of negotiations aimed at achieving lasting peace, adding, “However, predicting the possibility of such a large-scale, well-planned attack is undoubtedly very difficult.”
The selection of October 7 is a significant message
Kalay continued by drawing attention to whether the reliability of MOSSAD could be considered one of the biggest losses for the State of Israel, which possesses one of the world's best intelligence organizations and significant military power in the Middle East, in the face of this unexpected attack:
“We can consider the recommencement of a war exactly 50 years after the 1973 Yom Kippur War, where the regular armies of Arab states, primarily Egypt and Syria, and the state of Israel clashed in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as an important sign that international relations, especially in the Middle East, are entering a new global phase. Furthermore, we can interpret the selection of October 7, the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, as a significant message. Concrete data, such as Egyptian police opening fire on Israeli tourists, indicates that a new era is dawning in the Middle East.”
The rise of a radical right-wing government in Israel led to a deadlock in negotiations
Dr. Güler Kalay emphasized that the Oslo II Agreement is no longer valid, stating:
“The definition of 'temporary' in the Oslo II Agreement, which provided temporary autonomy in Palestinian territories, actually remained a symbol that this autonomy would never be realized. Israel's failure to distinguish the Palestinian Liberation Organization from the concept of 'terrorism'; its continued presence in disputed areas, economic embargo, military operations, and raids as de facto situations being seen by Israeli politicians as tools for political success, especially with the rising populism in recent years, are factors that overshadowed the Oslo II Agreement signed 28 years ago. As is known, the rise of a radical right-wing government in Israel in December 2022 led to a deadlock in negotiations with the Palestinians.”
What did Israel promise Palestinians for lifting the economic embargo?
Kalay drew attention to the development of diplomatic relations achieved through the 'Abraham Accords' signed between the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco with Israel in 2020-2021, stating, “Unfortunately, the proposed Middle East Peace Plan did not go beyond supporting the common geopolitical interests of Washington-Tel Aviv. Not only were the demands and interests of the Palestinian people ignored, but even the redivision of lands stated to be left to Palestine if armed struggle was abandoned came onto the agenda. Settlements in disputed areas where Israel has a presence were again legalized in favor of Israel. Israel promised the Palestinians, for the lifting of the economic embargo, that they should give up their lands, and if they did, they could also benefit from investments provided by the Gulf monarchies.”
What are the reasons that brought the Israeli-Palestinian issue to October 7?
Dr. Güler Kalay stated that there are regional and local reasons that brought the Israeli-Palestinian issue back to October 7, summarizing them as follows:
“Protests against Binyamin Netanyahu's government's judicial reform proposals in Israel since the beginning of 2023; All these demonstrations and protests not only failed to make the Israeli government back down but also dashed the hopes of Palestinian militant organizations in the Gaza Strip, which may have led them to cooperate with Hamas; (It is worth remembering that Hamas has taken control of the Gaza Strip since 2007, and during this process, with the mediation of states like Algeria and Russia, it began discussions with Palestinian organizations within the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), thus initiating the structural changes of the PLO or its organic link with Hamas).
The emergence of increasingly radicalized groups in the Gaza Strip has led to the Palestine Liberation Organization's name now being associated with Islamic terrorist organizations; The concentration of protests typically on Saturdays may have caused Hamas to exploit this void as an opportunity; Factors such as frequent police raids in Al-Aqsa Mosque and the economic blockade may have contributed to the escalating tension there.”
Preparation of an attack operation of this scale
Dr. Güler Kalay also commented on the preparation of an attack of this scale, saying:
“Considering the escalating tension throughout the region and recognizing that preparing an attack operation of this scale requires not only military power and political will but also sufficient time, it is worth noting that a series of factors such as the unification of the Gulf Monarchies and Iran giving moderate signals towards full cooperation in both the Gulf and the South Caucasus have led to Israel's rapid isolation in the Middle East. On the other hand, official relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel could not be established despite US efforts. The biggest factor in this was undoubtedly Riyadh's condition for the interests of the Palestinian people to be observed.”
The Palestinian cause will be moved to a different arena
Expressing her views by saying, “I believe that the wave of conflict that began on October 7 in the Gaza Strip will cause the Palestinian people's long-standing righteous cause to be moved to a different arena,” Güler Kalay continued:
“There is no longer a moderate political leadership in Palestine that can be negotiated with. This wave of conflict began in Gaza, the most sensitive region of the Middle East, and its engulfment of the entire region will not be an unexpected surprise. As international actors rapidly determine their sides, the conflict is moving towards acquiring an international character. While the US and European states condemned Hamas, Iran and Syria declared their solidarity with the Palestinian people. As Israel officially declared war with the 'Iron Swords' operation, support for the Islamic resistance movement is increasing in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and a number of Middle Eastern countries. It appears that the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which reunited last spring, and the Middle East, where a moderate atmosphere for regional cooperation prevailed, will once again be remembered for hot conflicts with the wave of violence that began in Palestine.”
Is ethnic cleansing being targeted?
Güler stated that Israeli officials deny the hospital attack, and for now, they have only received Washington's support, adding, “Israel states that there was a conversation among Hamas members as evidence. Various press sources claim that the rockets belonged to Palestinian radicals affiliated with the Islamic Jihad Organization. So, regarding the hospital attack, Israel points to Hamas as responsible; however, Israeli officials' explicit targeting of the Palestinian people since October 7, when the events began, already indicates that the events could evolve towards ethnic cleansing. Therefore, attacks targeting civilians are possible in the coming days.”
This operation will not be limited to Gaza
Evaluating the events in the context of the question, 'How can Israel's regional isolation, given the moderate state of political relations in the Middle East, take shape at this final stage?' Dr. Güler Kalay stated:
“In fact, although the Al-Aqsa Flood caused a great loss to Israel, we can say that Israel, with the counter-operation it immediately launched in response – Iron Swords – has not suffered a defeat against Hamas, but rather seized a great opportunity. Why? Because; through this, Israel has directly declared an actual war and launched its operation; This operation will not be limited to Gaza; The legitimacy of the Palestine Liberation Organization, which has become a symbol of the Palestinian people's righteous struggle, is now debatable; Palestinian resistance may become associated with Islamic terrorism, creating a significant perception management in world public opinion; we can interpret the Israel-Palestine war as essentially the first step of a West-East war; Iran can be targeted within the framework of the perception that it supports Hamas; Ultimately, Washington-Tel Aviv geopolitical interests are observed, and significant strategic changes can occur in global competition. The US strategy towards Russia and China, pursued through Ukraine and Taiwan, could this time be pursued through Israel and Palestine.
If we look specifically at Israel and Palestine, it is not very difficult to predict who will emerge stronger from the Al-Aqsa Flood operation in the medium and long term; in this case, was MOSSAD truly defeated by Hamas? Time will tell…”