Evaluating the protests that spread across Iran in reaction to worsening economic conditions and rising living costs, as well as the loss of life during this period, Political Scientist Prof. Ozan Örmeci stated that although the Iranian regime initially responded with relatively moderate measures, it has gradually begun to adopt a harsher stance.
Prof. Örmeci emphasized that the collapse of the regime is not so easy due to Tehran’s deeply rooted state tradition, adding, “However, if external powers such as the United States and Israel were to intervene directly, developments could of course take a very different direction.”
Stressing that Iran should first rid itself of sanctions and focus on development, Prof. Örmeci said, “It would also be appropriate for the regime to adopt a more libertarian attitude on issues such as women’s dress and the lifestyles of young people.”
Üsküdar University Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Department of Political Science and International Relations faculty member Prof. Ozan Örmeci evaluated the protests that erupted across Iran in response to economic hardship and the resulting casualties.
The depreciation of the rial has seriously reduced purchasing power
Pointing out that it has become increasingly difficult to obtain reliable information from the field and that severe internet restrictions are being imposed in the country, Prof. Örmeci shared important observations regarding the origins and progression of the protests.
“It appears that the protests initially began with economic demands…”
Prof. Örmeci stated that the protests in Iran initially began with economic demands, saying, “Although it is difficult to access accurate information due to the difficulty of obtaining field data and the severe internet restrictions currently in place in Iran, consultations with Iran experts in Türkiye and Northern Cyprus indicate that the protests first emerged with economic demands. In particular, citizens whose purchasing power has declined sharply due to the devaluation of the Iranian rial began to react against the regime.”
Economic based reactions later took on a political character
Emphasizing that economically driven reactions gradually gained a political dimension, Prof. Örmeci said, “The protests developed around themes such as the clerical regime’s traditional problems regarding women’s freedoms, relations with different ethnic and religious groups, and the aggressive activism of young people with low living standards. Although the regime initially banned the use of firearms, mutual violence began over time, and it has been reported that the death toll in these events has exceeded 500.”
Young people and women are always at the forefront of protests
Drawing attention to Iran’s protest culture, Prof. Örmeci stated: “When we examine the Green Movement period and the Mahsa Amini protests, we see that young people and women participate very intensively in protests in Iran. Even if these events are not well organized, it is known that there is always a population ready to explode due to general dissatisfaction with the regime. This time, when shopkeepers exhausted by economic difficulties joined these traditional opposition groups, the events quickly gained momentum and demonstrations attracted broader participation. When it became clear that demonstrators were using social media platforms to communicate and organize, severe restrictions were imposed. To support Iranian opposition groups, American businessman Elon Musk sent Starlink satellites. Over time, due to state measures, Iran’s entire internet access was cut off. In this context, foreign provocations are of course influential in such processes, and we recently witnessed that Israel and the United States were able to carry out operations within Iran.”
In Iran, which has a deep-rooted state tradition, the collapse of the regime is not so easy
Stating that the Iranian regime has increasingly hardened its response and aims to suppress violent demonstrators through force, Prof. Örmeci said, “As in all regimes, this is also valid in Iran, which has an authoritarian governing system. Due to Tehran’s deeply rooted state tradition, state authority does not simply disappear because of internal dynamics, and the collapse of the regime is not so easy. However, if external powers such as the United States and Israel were to intervene directly, developments could unfold differently.”
The regime’s legitimacy is shaken, but not entirely lost
Evaluating the impact of the protests on the regime’s legitimacy, Prof. Örmeci stated, “The regime is being harshly criticized mainly for corruption, inefficient use of economic resources, excessive prohibitions, favoritism based on nepotism rather than merit, incompetence, and its failure to establish good relations with powerful states such as the United States, thereby placing the Iranian people in a difficult position. Protest and rebellion culture is very strong among the Iranian people. The Islamists who benefited from this in 1979 are now complaining about it. The protests seriously shake the regime’s legitimacy, but there is not yet concrete data indicating that legitimacy has completely disappeared. This is because the Iranian people, who have been exposed to anti Shah propaganda by all ideological apparatuses of the state for nearly 50 years, cannot easily adopt a completely new narrative from scratch.”
Perceptions of the United States are changing in Iran
Commenting on the possible impact of a US intervention on the protests, Prof. Örmeci said, “The United States, especially under the Donald Trump administration, was traditionally perceived in Iran as an object of hatred and even described by Khomeini as the ‘great Satan’ due to the regime’s propaganda efforts. However, in recent years, as socioeconomic, political, and security problems have deepened, it has begun to be viewed more favorably by young people as an external power. Likewise, support for Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed Shah, both inside and outside the country, appears to have increased recently. Although access to Western statements from within Iran is limited, the existence of a large