Talks for a partial ceasefire in Ukraine have begun in Riyadh. While Washington is hopeful for concrete progress in Saudi Arabia, the Kremlin believes there is a long way to go for peace.
Political Scientist Dr. Lecturer Fehmi Ağca, evaluating the Ukraine peace process, stated that it is important for a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement to be concluded as soon as possible for the US to conduct a more effective policy against China, adding, “It is believed that the final peace agreement will be signed in Riyadh with Ukraine's participation. Europe, which takes an anti-peace stance, is not considered capable of being an effective actor in peace talks.”
Dr. Lecturer Fehmi Ağca said, “These developments indicate that the New World Order established after the Second World War is collapsing and there is a need for a new ‘World Order’ to be established.”
Dr. Lecturer Fehmi Ağca from Üsküdar Üniversitesi Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Department of Political Science and International Relations (English), evaluated the Ukraine peace process.
What is happening in the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia?
Evaluating the meetings held during the peace process, Dr. Lecturer Fehmi Ağca stated that the non-invitation of Ukrainian President Zelensky to the peace talks in February might have stemmed from a desire to first reach an agreement between then-US President Trump and Russian President Putin on the fundamental conditions of a peace treaty to be signed. However, Dr. Lecturer Fehmi Ağca emphasized that completely disregarding Zelensky or the Ukrainian delegation in the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia is not rational and contradicts the basic logic of international relations.
Zelensky's non-invitation to the first talks held in Saudi Arabia…
Recalling that leaders of some European states and the President of Türkiye made statements that conducting peace talks without Ukraine was not appropriate, Dr. Lecturer Fehmi Ağca said, “Behind Zelensky's non-invitation to the first talks held in Saudi Arabia might be the US's desire to steer the talks in line with its own interests, to reach an agreement with Russia for its global political aims, and especially to gain the support of Russian leader Putin for its future policies against China. For Putin, the top priority in foreign policy is for the territories occupied in Ukraine, especially Crimea, to pass under his sovereignty and for this to be officially recorded with an international treaty.”
Trump calling Zelensky a dictator
Dr. Lecturer Fehmi Ağca also noted that behind Trump calling Zelensky a dictator could be an attempt to exert political and psychological pressure on Zelensky to force him into an agreement that would grant the US rights over Ukraine's valuable minerals, and continued:
“Media reports indicating Zelensky's acceptance of this have confirmed it. It is also possible that this was a strategy planned and designed before the Russia-Ukraine War but not disclosed to the public. It should not be forgotten that Zelensky is an actor and that his election campaigns when becoming the president of Ukraine were engineered to guide the Ukrainian people. Zelensky may have pursued policies aligned with US interests from the very beginning. Considering the US's global policies and the necessity of supporting the US arms industry, the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers in this war and the migration of millions of Ukrainian civilians to European countries may have been disregarded by the US. It should not be forgotten that this approach will be followed in the future for other regions of the world, just as it has been in the past.”
On the other hand, statements made by the US that Ukraine cannot be a NATO member have completely invalidated Zelensky's rhetoric of ‘If Ukraine becomes a NATO member, I will resign from my post.’ Dr. Lecturer Fehmi Ağca stated that one of the main reasons for Russia's attack on Ukraine was Europe's desire to admit Ukraine into NATO, and that this possibility could prevent a lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine.
Is peace in the Russia-Ukraine war in sight soon?
Dr. Lecturer Fehmi Ağca stated that it is important for a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement to be concluded as soon as possible for the US to conduct a more effective policy against China, and said, “Although leaders of some EU member countries make statements to the contrary, considering that the Russian and Ukrainian peoples will also be in favor of peace, it is estimated that a peace agreement will be signed in the near future. As our President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated, ‘There is no winner in war, no loser in peace.’”
What will the ongoing talks in Riyadh bring?
Evaluating the meeting held in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, to end the war with Ukraine and Russia, Dr. Lecturer Fehmi Ağca noted the following:
“After the tension between Trump and Zelensky in the US, Zelensky's departure from the US without signing the agreement regarding valuable minerals and subsequently European leaders' support for Zelensky at the Ukraine solidarity meeting in the UK caused a false perception in the international public opinion. However, immediately thereafter, Zelensky's announcement of his readiness to apologize to Trump and sign the agreement on valuable minerals demonstrated that European states cannot provide sufficient support to Ukraine. It is not considered possible for Ukraine to continue the war against Russia without US arms support. The EU's announcement that it will allocate 800 billion euros for armament over the next four years by increasing defense and security expenditures of member states actually shows that Europe currently does not have the capacity to provide sufficient weapons and ammunition support to Ukraine.”
All of the US's efforts are to protect its economic interests on a global scale
Concluding, Dr. Lecturer Fehmi Ağca noted that the ongoing talks between the US and Russian delegations in Riyadh could be considered an effort to determine the fundamental principles of a lasting peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, and stated, “In the final stage, it is believed that the final peace agreement will be signed with Ukraine's participation. Europe, which takes an anti-peace stance, is not considered capable of being an effective actor in peace talks. A lasting peace agreement made in line with Russia's interests and gains would mean a violation of the fundamental international rule, also stated in the UN Charter, that borders cannot be changed by force. These developments indicate that the New World Order established after the Second World War is collapsing and there is a need for a new World Order to be established. It can be said that all of the US's efforts are to maintain its hegemonic country status to protect its economic interests on a global scale. In this context, it is assessed that by ensuring peace between Russia and Ukraine, the US will try to prevent the rise of its main rival, China, by reaching an understanding with Russia.”