Evaluating the developments following the call by MHP Chairman Devlet Bahçeli and the DEM Party delegation's meetings with political parties, International Relations Expert Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan said, “It should be noted that the meetings being held under the roof of the TBMM are important. However, it must also be emphasized that it is too early to state that these developments signal a new resolution process.”
Head of Political Science and International Relations Department at Üsküdar Üniversitesi, Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan, evaluated the developments that occurred after the call by MHP Chairman Devlet Bahçeli.
What happened in Syria while Bahçeli’s call was being discussed in Turkey?
Reminding that MHP Chairman Devlet Bahçeli called on Abdullah Öcalan, the leader of the PKK terrorist organization, on October 22, 2024, on the condition that the organization dissolve itself, to “apply for the right to hope and speak at the DEM Party Group Meeting in the TBMM,” Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan said, “While Bahçeli’s call was hotly debated in Turkey, we witnessed significant developments in Syria. The operation launched by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which controls Idlib, one of the de-escalation zones in Syria, with some elements of the Turkish-controlled Syrian National Army on November 27, 2024, ended 12 days later, on December 8, 2024, with the capture of Damascus and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad leaving the country. Simultaneously with these developments, the Syrian National Army captured Manbij, which was under the control of the PYD/YPG, an offshoot of the PKK. These rapid developments drew all attention to Syria,” he explained.
When Russia and Iran failed to provide support…
Reminding that Russia and Iran's inability to support the Assad regime, due to the difficulties brought by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and Hezbollah's failure against Israel, paved the way for a different political landscape in Syria, Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan said, “Within this context, while a large part of Syria came under HTS control, the PYD/YPG effectively developed a passive protection measure by raising US flags on its military vehicles in the region it controls in northern Syria against a possible attack by the Turkish Armed Forces and the Syrian National Army.”
The visit to Öcalan and what followed…
Noting that 67 days after Bahçeli’s call, while developments in Syria continued, DEM Party Istanbul Deputy Sırrı Süreyya Önder and Van Deputy Pervin Buldan met with Öcalan in İmralı on December 28, and that the DEM Party made a statement referring to Öcalan after this meeting, Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan summarized the points that emerged in the statement as follows:
“The terrorist leader, without mentioning its source, proceeds from the point that Turkish-Kurdish brotherhood has been wounded and weakened, emphasizing the need to strengthen Turkish-Kurdish brotherhood anew; he calls on all political circles in Turkey, without discrimination, to act constructively and make positive contributions, stressing that the most important platform for contribution is the TBMM. The statement indicates that, without naming the problem, efforts are being made to make this problem intractable through external interventions, as seen in the recent developments in Gaza and Syria in the Middle East. Öcalan states that he is also determined to provide the necessary contribution towards solving the problem, and with this effort, anticipating a democratic transformation in Turkey, he declares that the time has come for peace, democracy, and brotherhood for Turkey and the region.”
MHP and AK Party appear to be acting in coordination
Pointing out that the content and tone of the statement indicated a positive response to MHP Chairman Devlet Bahçeli's call, Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan said, “It does not seem possible for Devlet Bahçeli to make this call without consulting or reaching an agreement with President Erdoğan or the AK Party. The DEM Party taking the initiative immediately after the call, and the creation of an environment for Öcalan, who had not met with any visitors for 43 months, to meet with DEM Party officials within 67 days, indicate that the MHP and AK Party are acting in coordination.” he said.
The MHP being the initiator of these developments also caused public debate
Stating that the MHP being the initiator of these developments caused intense public debate, Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan said, “The MHP’s perspective should be based on integration, reflect the law of brotherhood, and not accept any separation or distinction. Otherwise, Bahçeli’s initiative will contradict the statements in Article 3, Basic Values and Principles, paragraph c of the MHP Party Charter, under the heading National Unity and Integrity, which states: ‘Instead of the divisive nature of artificial differences lacking depth based on history, culture, and belief, we consider the mobilization of our economic and social accumulations towards common goals, with an understanding that embraces the unifying nature of rich common values, as the guarantee of our national unity and integrity.’ The DEM Party and Öcalan, who responded positively to Bahçeli’s call, should not miss this detail.” he said.
Meetings are being held under the roof of the TBMM
Stating that the DEM Party delegation, consisting of Sırrı Süreyya Önder, Pervin Buldan, and Ahmet Türk, met with MHP and AK Party officials, as well as Saadet and Gelecek Party officials, and would continue their meetings with other parties, including the CHP, Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan continued:
“Among the parties with a group in the Parliament, the İyi Party (Good Party) does not seem to approach these developments positively. It should be noted that the meetings being held under the roof of the TBMM are important. However, it must also be emphasized that it is too early to state that these developments signal a new resolution process.
To speak of a process, the attitudes of all parties involved or potentially involved in this issue must be known, and policies must be formulated and preparations made accordingly. For example; it should be known how the Kandil structure of the PKK terrorist organization will respond to Öcalan's call, and how it will act in practice. It should not be overlooked that Iran's interest in the PKK might increase after the loss of power of the Assad administration it supported in Syria. The US's stance against the PYD/YPG, an offshoot of the PKK, has not yet been clarified. Does the US’s vision for the future of the Middle East, along with Israel whom it unconditionally supports, align with Turkey's, and where does the PKK terrorist organization stand in this? More importantly, is the public in Turkey ready for this? How will forgiveness be sought from the mothers who hold photographs of their martyred children, whose tear ducts have dried, and whose silent screams deeply affect all of us? Claiming that a process can be initiated and successfully concluded solely by the initiative of politicians, without these questions being answered, does not align with past experiences.”
Developments happening in the same period are somehow connected
Regarding whether the meetings with Öcalan will affect the position of the existing PKK/YPG structure in northern Syria in the newly established Syria, Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan noted the following:
“In international relations, we must state that developments occurring in the same period are somehow connected. The violence implemented by Israel primarily in Gaza, as well as in the West Bank and Lebanon after Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, the loss of power by the Assad regime in Syria, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War, and even the US’s priority to focus on the Asia-Pacific region are all entirely interrelated. Our current problem, which shows a tendency towards internationalization, should also be included in these. After the Assad regime, Syria’s new leadership, attempting to transform from HTS leader Jolani to suit-and-tie-wearing Ahmed al-Shara, continues its efforts to ensure stability in Syria, constantly making statements about its ability to work with the West. It should also be noted that it has received a positive reaction in the international arena regarding this. However, whether HTS will be able to adapt to Shara in this transformation remains to be seen.”
The outcome of Turkey’s ongoing talks with the US will be decisive
Explaining that it is also known that the PKK's offshoot, PYD/YPG, with the support it received from the US, pressured Arabs living east of the Euphrates and Kurds who were against the PYD/YPG to control eastern Syria in the period before December 8, forcing these people to migrate from the region, Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan said, “It was observed that the assimilation policy, which Kurds generally complain about, was implemented in this region directly by the PYD/YPG. If the PKK were to lay down arms or dissolve itself after Öcalan’s call, the PYD/YPG’s influence over the Kurds living in this region would diminish, and the integrity of Syria could be established more easily; however, it should be noted that this would be quite difficult to achieve. Undoubtedly, at this point, we must also emphasize that the outcome of Turkey’s ongoing talks with the US will be decisive.” he said.
The state must never give up the struggle
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan concluded his words as follows:
“Our past experiences, with the lives lost, years passed, and hopes extinguished, gravely remind us that this problem, which has existed in our country and involved armed struggle since August 15, 1984, should not be used as material for domestic politics for political gain, and that one must act calmly and sincerely. While aiming for a solution, the state must never give up the struggle. It should not be forgotten that the self-sacrificing efforts of the security forces compel the PKK terrorist organization to come to the table. The state taking a step towards peace at its strongest moment shows not only the greatness of the state but also how strong the brotherhood between Turks and Kurds is. A brother sometimes forgives his brother by swallowing his pain. In return, it should be stated that it is time for the Kurds, who are aware of this brotherhood and constitute the majority, to raise their voices more loudly against terrorist structures. However, even if everything is positive, it should not be forgotten that years will be needed for wounds to heal and mutual trust to increase.”