Evaluating the one year since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas, International Relations Expert Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan stated that after Gaza, Israel aims to weaken Iran-backed Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon by attacking it, and the main reason for Israel's ease of action in this way is the political and military support it receives from the United States.
Noting that peace talks on the Israel-Palestine issue could come onto the agenda a few months after the Presidential elections in the US, Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan said, “The international community's silence shows that the problem is almost evolving towards finding a homeland for Palestinians. Policies that Turkey will develop to strengthen regional cooperation with Egypt, as well as Syria, Iran, and Iraq, could lead Israel to reconsider its ruthless and lawless stance.”
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan, Head of the Political Science and International Relations Department at Üsküdar University, evaluated the one year that has passed since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas.
Distribution of Palestinians and their Refugee Status
Noting that over 14 million Palestinians live worldwide, Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan said, “This figure includes Palestinians with identity cards and those registered as refugees. Of this population, 44.8% are in Arab countries, 15.4% in the Gaza Strip, 22.5% in the West Bank including East Jerusalem, 12% in Israel, and 5.3% in other countries. The reason a significant portion of Palestinians live as refugees is the establishment of the state of Israel in Palestinian territories. During and after the establishment of the state of Israel, Palestinians migrated to neighboring countries, as well as to Gaza and the West Bank, which they believed would belong to a future Palestinian state. Thus, since 1949, Palestinians have been forced to live as refugees in different geographies. According to the records of the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), 5.9 million Palestinians worldwide have access to the assistance provided by this organization.”
What are the main problems between Palestinians and Israel?
Stating that it is beneficial to recall the fundamental problems between Palestinians and Israel before evaluating October 7th, Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan said, “These problems can be listed as: Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories; Israel's non-acceptance of a two-state solution based on pre-1967 borders; the offensive attitudes of Jews towards Muslims in Al-Aqsa Mosque, considered sacred by Muslims, and their aim to demolish Al-Aqsa Mosque; settlements opened by the Israeli administration for Jews in the West Bank, whose numbers are constantly increasing; and the Palestinians in Gaza being forced to live under a blockade imposed by Israel since 2006.”
Hamas's Attack…
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan stated that the world witnessed Hamas attacking Israel with approximately 5,000 rockets launched from Gaza on the morning of Saturday, October 7, 2023. He added, “Hamas claimed that with this operation, which it called ‘Al-Aqsa Flood’, it aimed to draw attention to the difficulties faced by Palestinians due to Israel's blockade, which has been in place for 75 years in general, and for the last 17 years in Gaza, as well as Israel's humiliations, thereby bringing the Palestinian issue back to the world agenda.”
Israel’s Retaliatory Attacks to the Al-Aqsa Flood…
According to Israel's statement, 1,200 Israelis were killed and 5,132 people were injured in the operation carried out by Hamas on October 7, 2023, Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan continued:
“As a result of Israel's retaliatory attacks on the Gaza Strip following the Al-Aqsa Flood, over 41,000 Palestinians lost their lives and approximately 98,000 people were injured in the past year. More than 40% of the deceased Palestinians are children, and more than 28% are women. During this period, Israel not only attacked Gaza but also carried out operations in the West Bank. Due to Israeli attacks, 744 Palestinians, including 160 children, lost their lives in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. The number of Palestinians detained in the West Bank is over 11,000.”
According to the UN, 1.9 million Palestinians were displaced in Gaza as a result of these attacks
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan stated that in its ground and air attacks following the Al-Aqsa Flood, Israel targeted hospitals, ambulances, places of worship, refugee camps, and journalists working in the region in Gaza. He said, “Israel intensified its attacks, especially on refugee camps in Gaza, claiming that Palestinian resistance was organized in these camps. According to the UN, as a result of these attacks, 1.9 million Palestinians were displaced in Gaza. The UN Secretary-General called on UN Security Council members to demand an immediate humanitarian ceasefire on December 6, 2023, but the ceasefire resolution proposed by the UN Secretary-General was rejected by the US veto. Unfortunately, no permanent ceasefire has been achieved during this period, apart from short-term implementations.”
Israel's prevention of humanitarian aid from reaching Gaza…
Explaining that Palestinians have faced extraordinary difficulties in securing shelter, sustaining daily life, and accessing medicines and other medical aid for a year due to Israel's prevention of humanitarian aid from reaching Gaza, Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan said, “Although Israel has declared the objective of the war it waged with a sense of revenge, disregarding international law, as ‘the release of Israeli captives, the elimination of Hamas, and ensuring Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel,’ it is difficult to say that these goals have been fully achieved at this point.”
Rockets continue to be launched from Gaza into Israel
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan stated that rockets continue to be launched from Gaza into Israel, adding, “101 Israeli captives are still in Hamas's hands. Despite the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas's Political Bureau, and Mohammed Deif, the leader of its military wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, by the Israeli Army, Hamas continues its resistance. Palestinians, accustomed to living under difficult conditions as displaced persons since 1948, appear likely to continue their resistance despite the extremely harsh environment in Gaza. In contrast, the families of captives held by Hamas are increasing pressure on the Netanyahu government to reach a peace agreement.”
“The main reason for Israel's ease of action in this way is the political and military support it receives from the United States”
Noting that after Gaza, Israel aims to weaken Iran-backed Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon by attacking it, Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan said, “To achieve this goal, towards the end of September, it neutralized Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah in an attack carried out in Beirut. The main reason for Israel's ease of action in this way is the political and military support it receives from the United States. The US believes that weakening Hezbollah would facilitate a future operation against Iran if conditions are suitable. However, as we have witnessed in the past period, Iran's ability to strike Israeli territory with ballistic missiles concerns the US.”
Current US administration will remain silent until the Presidential election in November
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan also stated that the current US administration, taking into account the power of the Jewish lobby in the US, will remain silent on Israel's attacks against Hezbollah until the Presidential election in November, and continued:
“Netanyahu wants to take advantage of the current situation of the US administration and believes that the opportunity to seize a region in Lebanon that he can keep under control has ripened. The Litani River, an important water source in the region, could be a target for Israel. Thus, after the Golan Heights, another important water source in the region would fall into Israel's hands. Such a development would weaken Hamas and Hezbollah, and therefore Iran. Therefore, it is possible to state that Iran will try to resist this initiative with all its might.”
Peace talks may come onto the agenda after the US elections
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan also said that peace talks on the Israel-Palestine issue could come onto the agenda a few months after the Presidential elections in the US. He concluded by saying, “During this period, the success or failure of the Israeli Army will be influential in determining the timing of peace talks. This issue, defined as the Arab-Israeli, Israel-Palestine problem since World War I, is now beginning to be seen as the Hamas-Israel issue. The international community's silence shows that the problem is almost evolving towards finding a homeland for Palestinians. Policies that Turkey will develop to strengthen regional cooperation with Egypt, as well as Syria, Iran, and Iraq, could lead Israel to reconsider its ruthless and lawless stance.”