Israel and Hamas agreed on a ceasefire 15 months after the start of the Gaza war. International Relations Expert Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan, evaluating the process leading to the ceasefire, stated, “Negotiations for the second phase, which means the release of remaining hostages, the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the 're-establishment of sustainable peace,' will begin on the 16th day. The third and final phase involves the reconstruction of Gaza and the return of the bodies of remaining hostages. The reconstruction process could take years.”
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan added, “Turkey can be expected to take responsibility in the third phase of the ceasefire, namely the reconstruction of Gaza, rather than the first and second phases.”
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Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan Evaluated the Israel-Hamas Agreement
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Israel and Hamas agreed on a ceasefire 15 months after the start of the Gaza war. Head of Üsküdar Üniversitesi Department of Political Science and International Relations, Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan, evaluated the process that led to the ceasefire.
More than 46,800 Palestinians lost their lives
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan explained that Hamas, considering the difficult conditions, hardships, and humiliations faced by Palestinians for 75 years in general, and for the last 17 years due to Israel's blockade in Gaza, carried out an operation on October 7, 2023, against Israel, which it called "Al-Aqsa Flood," with the aim of bringing the Palestinian issue back to the world agenda. He stated, “In this operation, approximately 1,200 people lost their lives, and 251 people were taken hostage by Hamas. Israel responded to the Al-Aqsa Flood operation first with aerial bombardment, and then, starting from October 27, a large-scale ground invasion of Gaza began. Hamas, in turn, responded to Israel's attacks with rockets launched from Gaza. According to data from the Hamas Ministry of Health, more than 46,800 Palestinians have lost their lives in Israel's ground and air attacks to date.”
Joe Biden had proposed a three-phase plan for a ceasefire and hostage exchange
Reminding that an initiative was launched on November 21, 2023, with the participation of the USA, Egypt, and Qatar, aimed at halting clashes between the parties and establishing a ceasefire, Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan continued:
“In the ceasefire secured after this initiative, which lasted one week, Hamas released 105 hostages. In return, Israel released 240 Palestinians held in its prisons. The parties subsequently accused each other of violating the ceasefire, and this initiative could not be advanced further. During the process, U.S. President Joe Biden, on May 31, 2024, proposed a three-phase plan for a ceasefire and hostage exchange. The UN Security Council, with its resolution on June 10, 2024, supported Biden's plan. In this environment of increasing hopes for a ceasefire, talks were suspended on July 31, 2024, after Hamas's political leader, Ismail Haniye, was killed in Tehran in an assassination carried out by Israel. Following this event, on October 17, 2024, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was also killed.”
The agreement entered into force as of January 19
Noting that at a time when mutual distrust was at its peak, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump suddenly drew attention with a statement he made on December 2, 2024, Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan stated, “Trump declared that if an agreement between the parties was not reached by January 20, 2025, when he would take office, he would unleash hell in the Middle East. Forty-two days after Trump's statement, on January 13, 2025, following a phone conversation between Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken announced that an agreement was very close. Subsequently, on January 15, 2025, it was announced to the world by Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and U.S. President Joe Biden that a consensus had been reached between Hamas and Israel on a ceasefire agreement. The Israeli cabinet approved the agreement two days later. In discussions lasting hours, two far-right ministers in the Israeli cabinet voted against the agreement. Following the cabinet's approval, the agreement entered into force on January 19, at 08:30.”
What will happen in the first phase, which will last six weeks?
Stating that the agreement signed between Israel and Hamas consists of three phases, Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan noted the following:
“In the first phase, which will last six weeks, in exchange for 33 Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, more than 1,900 Palestinians, 1,167 of whom were arrested after October 7, 2023, will be released. On the 7th day of the agreement, after a total of 7 Israeli captives are released, the Israeli army will begin to withdraw from Gaza, and residents of northern Gaza will be able to return to their homes. Additionally, the entry of 600 trucks of humanitarian aid per day into Gaza will be possible, including 50 fuel trucks that will reach the northern Gaza Strip.
Negotiations for the second phase, which means the release of remaining hostages, the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the 're-establishment of sustainable peace,' will begin on the 16th day. The third and final phase involves the reconstruction of Gaza and the return of the bodies of remaining hostages. The reconstruction process could take years.”
Trump's 'hostage deal reached' message shows the importance given to the agreement
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan also stated that civilian women, female soldiers, children, the elderly, and sick and wounded civilians are expected to be among the hostages to be released in the first phase. He said, “Biden, by reminding that he shared the definitive outlines of the ceasefire plan in May 2024, and that it was subsequently unanimously adopted by the UN Security Council, virtually emphasized his own importance in the process. Furthermore, the announcement of the agreement by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20, 2025, on his social media account with the phrase 'hostage deal reached,' demonstrates the importance given to the agreement.”
A new era begins in the Middle East
Explaining that representatives of Israel and Hamas conducted negotiations through third parties in Paris, Cairo, and Doha, with U.S., Qatari, and Egyptian diplomats mediating the talks, Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan said, “These developments indicate the effectiveness of the U.S., which acted in full harmony with Israel during the agreement process. The timing of the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria on December 8, 2024, just before the agreement, Russia's inability to end its war against Ukraine, the neutralization of Hezbollah alongside Hamas, and the elimination of Iran's influence in the region cannot be seen as a coincidence. This situation can be evaluated as a harbinger of a new era in the Middle East, where Israel's security in the region is more strongly ensured compared to before the Al-Aqsa Flood.”
Is it possible to achieve lasting peace in Gaza?
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan stated that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced immediately after the Al-Aqsa Flood that their goal was to 'destroy Hamas' and that they would continue the war until this was achieved. He remarked, “To date, no change in their stance has been witnessed. Israel, with the violence it has applied without distinguishing between ambulances, hospitals, schools, places of worship, women, children, or press personnel, has repeatedly violated international law and further deepened the animosity with Palestinians. Potential disruptions during the ceasefire process, if supported by Trump, indicate that Israel could resume the violence it has applied thus far.”
Recent developments are concerning regarding the sustainability of the agreement
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan also mentioned that it is known that far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who voted against the ceasefire in the cabinet meeting, announced his resignation in protest, and continued:
“Another name against the agreement from the beginning is Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. The Finance Minister announced that he would resign if the Gaza war does not restart at the end of the first phase. These ministers accuse the government of making a deal with the 'devil' and argue that the goal of destroying Hamas has not yet been achieved. Israel launched an attack on Palestine on the morning of January 19, minutes before the scheduled start of the ceasefire, on the grounds that Hamas had not shared the list of hostages to be released. Subsequently, after Hamas published the names of the hostages, the ceasefire began at 12:15. The ministers' statements and the latest development lead us to be concerned about the sustainability of the agreement.”
What could be Turkey's role in the ceasefire process?
Noting that the USA, Egypt, and Qatar are known to be influential in the process of achieving a ceasefire, Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan stated the following:
“In this context, Turkey can be expected to take responsibility in the third phase of the ceasefire, namely the reconstruction of Gaza, rather than the first and second phases. However, Turkey should also strive to persuade Palestinians regarding the recognition of Israel’s existence. While challenging, this would lay the groundwork for establishing lasting peace in the region and reducing Iran's influence. Developments indicate that if peace can be sustained, the 2020 Abraham Accords signed by Israel with Gulf countries will revive and expand. In this environment, I believe it would be appropriate for Turkey to propose the establishment of a regional agreement or a pact similar to a 'Middle East Peace and Stability Pact' with Iraq, Syria, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and Palestine.”
Developments need to be viewed holistically
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan also stated that this initiative should be open to all countries in the region, adding, “It should not be forgotten that Russia and Iran signed a strategic partnership agreement on January 17, 2025, and this partnership could lead to new alignments in the region. With the pact it proposes, Turkey would make a significant contribution to shaping an environment that allows the region's countries to live together in peace. Additionally, the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC), which came to the agenda after India was positioned as a manufacturing base against China following the September 2023 G20 New Delhi Summit, and Turkey's Development Road project necessitate peace and stability in our region. Both projects offer an alternative to the Suez Canal route. Developments need to be viewed holistically.”