Evaluating recent developments in Syria, International Relations Specialist Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan states that in the Syrian crisis, where many actors are involved, it is quite difficult to make future predictions by looking at instant developments.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan said, “Turkey could also carry out an operation with the Syrian National Army against the PYD/YPG in the Manbij region, located west of the Euphrates. Developments on the ground and a lack of mutual trust indicate that the Astana process has ended, or that a new framework needs to be established based on the realities on the ground.”
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan, Head of the Political Science and International Relations Department at Üsküdar Üniversitesi, evaluated recent developments in Syria.
Assad had resorted to harsh interventions instead of making reforms…
Reminding that internal conflicts also erupted in Syria, governed by the Alawite Bashar al-Assad, despite the majority of its population being Sunni, during the period known as the Arab Spring, when we witnessed many states in the Middle East undergoing serious upheavals, Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan stated, “Instead of considering the demands of the people and implementing reforms to ensure internal stability, Assad resorted to very harsh interventions against his opponents. Consequently, Syrian opposition members, seeing that it would be impossible to continue their lives in Syria, migrated to Turkey, which is the safest country in the region, as well as to other neighboring countries. The facilitating stance of the Turkish government towards those coming from Syria further increased the number of Syrians migrating to Turkey.”
Syria transformed into a fragmented structure…
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan, pointing to the crisis in which the USA, Russia, Iran, and Turkey are also involved, said, “Syria, generally, has transformed into a highly fragmented structure, consisting of a region in its northeast controlled by the PYD/YPG, which is a component of the PKK terrorist organization supported by the USA; a region immediately south of Turkey, west of the Euphrates, controlled by Turkey; a region in Idlib controlled by Syrian opposition groups; a region controlled by the Syrian regime; and a region in southern Syria controlled by ISIS. During the Syrian crisis, a ceasefire was declared on December 30, 2016, under the guarantorship of Turkey, Russia, and Iran. Due to the need for talks to be held in a neutral location, the Astana process was initiated, and the first meeting took place in 2017.”
HTS; supported by the USA, UK, France, and Israel!
Evaluating the recent events in Syria, Arslan said, “At this point, I would like to focus on Idlib, where attention has been concentrated due to recent developments. The population of Idlib, designated as one of the de-escalation zones in Syria, is approximately 4 million; it still hosts a large number of regime opponents. The city is governed by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. HTS was established in 2011 under the name Nusra Front, directly affiliated with Al-Qaeda. In 2016, the group’s leader, al-Jolani, separated from Al-Qaeda and formed the organization named Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham by merging with several similar groups. There are five different organizations within HTS. Although HTS is considered a terrorist organization by the West, it is known to be supported by the USA, UK, France, and Israel. Despite being noted as a radical structure with a Salafist understanding, HTS has recently been trying to present a moderate image. It is also a fact that the organization occasionally makes negative and harsh statements against Turkey.”
Approximately 36 different organizations exist within the structure called the Syrian National Army
“HTS is also recognized as a terrorist organization by Turkey,” Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan continued, stating:
“Within the structure in the region controlled by Turkey, known as the Syrian National Army, there are approximately 36 different organizations, both large and small. This structure, previously called the Free Syrian Army before transforming into the Syrian National Army, was initially equipped by the USA and Turkey under the train-and-equip program. Later, in 2015, following the USA's withdrawal from the train-and-equip program, Turkey's influence over this group increased. HTS and the Syrian National Army act with the motivation to overthrow the regime in Syria. Although the organization that moved from Idlib towards Aleppo on November 27, 2024, was HTS, some elements affiliated with the Syrian National Army were also seen acting together with this organization.”
Even if in different geographies, simultaneous developments are interconnected…
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan, stating that simultaneous developments in international relations are interconnected even if they occur in different geographies, said, “In this context, I would first like to focus on the Russia-Ukraine War. As is known, Russia, disturbed by NATO’s eastward expansion, occupied Crimea, which belongs to Ukraine, in 2014, with the aim of preventing Ukraine’s NATO and EU membership prospects. Subsequently, Russia launched a special operation in the Donbas region, creating a de facto situation in eastern Ukraine on the grounds that ethnic Russians reside there, and later occupied and annexed this region, similar to Crimea. The Russia-Ukraine War is still ongoing.”
Over 50,000 Palestinians lost their lives in military operations carried out by Israel
Noting that another important development to focus on is the HAMAS-Israel conflict, Arslan said, “HAMAS's Al-Aqsa Flood operation, launched on October 7, 2023, with approximately 5,000 rockets from Gaza, served as a pretext for Israel to conduct military operations, first in Gaza, then in the West Bank and Lebanon. At this point, over 50,000 Palestinians have lost their lives in military operations carried out by Israel, and Israel's attacks are still ongoing. In the process, Iranian and Syrian territories have also been subjected to Israeli attacks.”
What is the main motivation driving HTS to act?
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan noted that the Syrian regime's redeployment of its forces in Aleppo southward to prevent a possible Israeli attack and to fill the vacuum created by Hezbollah losing power against Israel in Lebanon, and its abandonment of Aleppo to the PYD/YPG, was perceived by HTS elements in Idlib as an opportunity to seize Aleppo. He continued:
“Iran, which has been in a difficult situation due to sanctions imposed by the USA since 1979, saw its influence in the region diminish significantly as its supported Hezbollah in Lebanon failed to achieve success against Israel and lost 19 senior commanders as a result of Israeli attacks. At the same time, Russia, unable to achieve its desired outcome against Ukraine, which is supported by Western weaponry, was not in a position to divert its attention to another region. This strengthened HTS's belief that the moment to act against the Syrian regime had arrived. The difficult situation faced by Russia and Iran, who support the Syrian regime, is seen as the main motivation driving HTS to act.”
Conflicts in the region may re-intensify…
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan explained that HTS and a portion of the Syrian National Army swiftly seizing Aleppo and advancing towards Hama, along with the Syrian National Army capturing Tal Rifaat, which is under PYD/YPG control, raised the question, “Are the balances changing in Syria?” He stated, “I would like to point out that in the Syrian crisis, where many actors are involved, it is quite difficult to make future predictions based on instant developments. I believe we need to wait a little longer for this. Indeed, supporting this view, Russia and Iran declared their unconditional support for the Syrian regime on Monday, December 2. Additionally, Putin replaced the commander of Russian forces in Syria. Along with these developments, there is information that Assad has initiated forced conscription in the country. This situation provides clues that conflicts in the region will re-intensify.”
Turkey established control east and west of the Euphrates…
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan noted that with its operations in northern Syria in 2016, 2018, and 2019, named Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch, and Peace Spring, aimed at preventing a terrorist formation that would have an outlet to the Mediterranean in its south, Turkey established control both east and west of the Euphrates, albeit with a gap in between. He continued:
“Turkey, considering the PYD/YPG terrorist entity supported by the USA in the east of the Euphrates, does not want to withdraw from Syria prematurely to neutralize this entity and to secure an area that will allow Syrians in Turkey to live in a safe zone in northern Syria. In contrast, Assad, supported by Russia and Iran, demands Turkey’s withdrawal of its military presence in northern Syria and indicates that he will insist on not sitting at the negotiation table with Turkey if this does not happen. The Damascus regime, unlike Turkey, does not view the USA-backed PYD/YPG structure as a threat.”
Russia and Iran believe the recent operation took place with Turkey’s knowledge
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan stated that Russia and Iran believe the recent operation, carried out jointly by HTS and a portion of the Syrian National Army, occurred at least with Turkey’s knowledge. He added, “Despite this, Turkish Foreign Ministry officials maintain communication with all capitals in the region, including Iran, and state that they are closely monitoring developments. The Syrian regime announced that it would respond with its allies to this operation carried out by HTS, which has the potential to force Assad to the negotiation table. When we evaluate the statements from Russia and Iran in this direction together, we can say that intense air attacks, especially against HTS in Aleppo, will be launched in the coming days. If Iran accuses Turkey of HTS’s attacks, Israel, in order to pit Turkey and Iran against each other, could begin peace talks with the Palestinians as well as with Hezbollah, with whom it signed a ceasefire. This situation would alleviate pressure on Hezbollah in Lebanon, to be used against HTS in Aleppo, and would ease Iran’s hand.”
Turkey could carry out an operation in the Manbij region, located west of the Euphrates
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Arslan noted that Syria's shifting of its forces from the south northward to retake Aleppo could prepare suitable ground for Israel, which has recently removed mines in the Golan Heights under its occupation since 1967, to launch an attack deep into Syria from south of Damascus towards the PYD/YPG-controlled region. He concluded:
“It is possible for the PYD/YPG to also advance from southern Syria towards the Golan Heights to unite with Israeli forces. Turkey will not allow such an initiative by the PYD/YPG. Additionally, Turkey could carry out an operation with the Syrian National Army against the PYD/YPG in the Manbij region, located west of the Euphrates. Developments on the ground and a lack of mutual trust indicate that the Astana process has ended, or that a new framework needs to be established based on the realities on the ground. On this occasion, I must also emphasize that the weapons used and the methods applied by HTS, prominent in the activity that started on November 27 during its Aleppo attack, show that the organization is well-equipped and consciously directed. Even though they are declared terrorist organizations, I would like to underline that such structures are, nowadays, very useful apparatuses for all states wishing to realize their national interests.”