Stating that the meeting between the leaders of Turkey and Syria was an important step for the normalization of relations between the two countries, Dr. Güler Kalay evaluated the actions taking place in both countries.
Noting that the planning of the Erdoğan-Putin meeting and the two leaders taking steps together on the Syrian issue are not desired situations for the Western alliance and Israel, Dr. Güler Kalay said, “In this situation, provocative initiatives that would require Ankara to focus on its internal affairs are not surprising.”
Dr. Güler Kalay: “The goal is to prevent the improvement of Ankara-Damascus relations. An urgent solution plan should be developed between Ankara and Damascus for the refugee problem.”
Dr. Güler Kalay, Deputy Director of Üsküdar Üniversitesi Strategic Research Center, evaluated the relations between Turkey and Syria and the actions taking place in both countries.
The meeting of the leaders was an important step for the normalization of relations between the two countries
Dr. Güler Kalay noted that the meeting between the leaders of Turkey and Syria on June 28, 2024, was an important step for the normalization of relations between the two countries, stating, “Both leaders made positive statements regarding the re-establishment of mutual diplomatic relations. Amid increasing current tensions in international relations, rhetoric of a new world war, sharpening alliances, and intensifying competition in the international economy, the entry of Turkey-Syria relations into a normalization process is undoubtedly a significant move on the chessboard.”
Turkey has been pursuing an active foreign policy in recent years to transform the hot conflicts around it
Emphasizing that Turkey has pursued an active foreign policy in recent years to transform the hot conflicts around it, Dr. Güler Kalay said, “Ankara’s clear stance against Israel in the face of the Israel-Palestine conflict’s growing regional expansion has led to a tense period in Israel-Turkey relations. On the other hand, intense competition in international trade routes has added alternative projects for new trade corridors, including the Development Road project discussed between Turkey and Iraq. In the context of the impact of political economy on international relations, Turkey stands out as an active player. As is known, there is also a noticeable softening in Armenia-Turkey relations, and the Zangezur Corridor (Syunik Region), a very important project for the South Caucasus, is a project that will increase Turkey’s political and economic-commercial power, while also expected to make significant contributions to the economic development of the region.”
Provocative initiatives that would require Ankara to focus on its internal affairs are not surprising
Dr. Güler Kalay continued her remarks as follows:
“The statements by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan after his Moscow visit emphasizing the seriousness of the possibility of World War III, Ankara’s renewed desire to join BRICS, the planning of the Erdoğan-Putin meeting, and most importantly, the two leaders taking steps together on the Syrian issue are undoubtedly not desired situations for the Western alliance and, of course, Israel. Ankara’s remarkable increasing dynamism and influence in foreign policy are sometimes characterized as undesirable steps by the game-makers. In this situation, provocative initiatives that would require Ankara to focus on its internal affairs are not surprising. In such sensitive days in human political history, exposing the weakest points of states and forcing them to turn inward, thereby breaking their dynamism in foreign policy, is not a new game.”
Despite being a NATO member, Turkey pursues its foreign policy considering its national interests
Emphasizing that the strengthening of the Russia-China-Iran alliance, Turkey pursuing its foreign policy by considering its national interests despite being a NATO member, and its close communication with Russia on the Syrian issue are difficult situations for the Anglo-Saxon and America’s ally in the Middle East, Israel, Dr. Güler Kalay explained the following:
“The normalization of Ankara-Damascus relations is a development against the PKK/PYD. The PKK/PYD are organizations supported by America to shape its policy in the region, and a puppet state plan envisioned here is not very likely to be realized without these organizations. The normalization of Syria-Turkey relations and the re-establishment of diplomatic ties will create an existential threat for the PKK/PYD organizations. In this situation, a situation will emerge that will weaken both Israeli and American hegemony in the region.”
The refugee and asylum seeker problem takes first place in Turkey’s current internal affairs
In this regard, Dr. Güler Kalay stated that the re-escalation of tension between Ankara and Damascus could completely shelf diplomatic reconciliation efforts and also re-escalate PKK’s activities within Turkey, saying, “While the refugee and asylum seeker problem takes first place in Turkey’s current internal affairs, terrorism is another important issue. When these two problems are provoked within the framework of nationalism and ethno-nationalism, the necessity arises for Ankara to direct a significant portion of its power to domestic policy. In such a scenario, social conflict and ethnic conflict, when combined with economic problems, will very quickly influence society through nationalist rhetoric and social media.”
How should the simultaneous actions in Kayseri and Syria be interpreted?
“I believe that the actions that started first in Kayseri and then in Syria, which I consider independent but noteworthy for their similarities and synchronicity, should be read within this framework, just a few days after the moderate meeting between the Syrian and Turkish leaders,” said Dr. Güler Kalay, continuing her words as follows:
“Looking at the origin of the incident in Kayseri, we can say that the irregular arrival of refugees in Turkish society and the long-standing problems in both economic and social integration; on the other hand, the country’s economic difficulties and the daily decrease in household nominal income are some of the most concrete examples that accumulated anger is seeking an outlet. In such an atmosphere, it is not very difficult to provoke society against Syrians. The attack on the child in Kayseri is just one of many similar incidents and is known not to be the first; however, the answer to why society reacted in this way now is linked to the international political conjuncture. The attack on Turks in Syria is another move within the same conjuncture.”
An urgent solution plan should be developed between Ankara and Damascus
Dr. Güler Kalay concluded her words by saying, “In conclusion, the goal is to prevent the improvement of Ankara-Damascus relations; however, I believe there are other conclusions that can be drawn from the situation. Turkish society is weary of irregular migration, asylum seeker, and refugee problems; the economic bottleneck is exacerbating this problem; the possibility of social conflicts should not be ignored; an urgent solution plan should be developed between Ankara and Damascus for the refugee problem.”