As the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was concluded in Belém, Brazil, preparations for COP31 to be held in Antalya are moving to the top of the national and academic agenda. Prof. İbrahim Özdemir, a faculty member of the Department of Philosophy at the Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences of Üsküdar University, evaluated the lessons revealed by COP30 in his article published in Perspektif and presented important warnings and recommendations on how Türkiye should prepare for COP31. Özdemir also emphasized that COP31 is not only a diplomatic success for Türkiye but also an opportunity for national transformation.
Here is Özdemir’s article:
The Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the highest-level international meeting where global climate policies are determined. Following the adoption of the Climate Change Framework Convention at the 1992 Rio Summit, the COP meetings, which have been held annually since 1995, have served as the platform where all the turning points of climate diplomacy, from the Kyoto Protocol to the Paris Agreement, have taken shape.
Decisions that determine the future of humanity, such as the phase-out of fossil fuels, climate finance, adaptation policies, and limiting the increase in global temperature, are taken at these summits. For this reason, COP meetings represent a global decision-making arena where science, diplomacy, and ethical responsibility intersect.
“COP30 as a Confrontation with the Future of Humanity”
In the first week of COP30, the concept of the “implementation gap” came to the fore in almost all main negotiation topics, along with the “finance gap” as one of its most fundamental causes. Developing countries, especially those struggling with conflict, pandemics, and increasing climate risks, are acting based on a climate finance target of 300 billion USD annually until 2035.
However, during the negotiation process, it became evident that there are serious uncertainties regarding the timing of this target, the type of resources, whether grants or loans, public or private sector, and through which mechanisms they will be transferred. This means both risk and opportunity for middle-income countries such as Türkiye. While accessing finance mechanisms emerges as an opportunity, the inadequacy of commitments may make it more difficult to cope with challenges.
For this reason, COP30 held this year in Belém, Brazil, can be seen not only as a climate negotiation meeting but also as one of the clearest confrontations with the future of humanity. While bringing the countries of the world together, this year’s summit once again powerfully demonstrated that the climate crisis is no longer an abstract environmental issue but a matter of economic security, social stability, food and water management, and global justice, and that it concerns all of us.
Fossil Fuels and the Energy Transition
One of the most controversial issues at COP30 was the proposal to abandon fossil fuels and to establish a roadmap for this transition. Although more than 80 countries supported this call, some countries that generate high revenues from oil and gas production approached this proposal with caution. In this context, Türkiye needs to think in a holistic manner and make certain decisions regarding fossil fuel-based energy production, the use of coal and natural gas, and the cost of transitioning to renewable energy.
In addition, the economic risks caused by climate disasters such as fires and floods show that this transition is inevitable, and that the policies to be determined and implemented in this area should not be postponed. COP30 clearly demonstrated that we are now facing a turning point not only in terms of “listing commitments” but also in terms of “real-world actions.”
For example, concrete goals such as accelerating clean energy investments, expanding sustainable fuels such as biofuels and e-fuels, and supporting green industrial chains are on the agenda. This situation also serves as a warning for many countries: Promises alone are not enough. Therefore, actions and the systems that finance them must be put into operation.
The Economic Cost of Ignoring the Climate Reality
Despite climate deniers, climate disasters occurring in different parts of the world enable people to better understand that urgent action must be taken on climate issues. While everyone accepts that the climate is changing, there is also a growing acceptance that this change is human-induced. These are no longer distant threats but real-time economic events. Floods, droughts, forest fires, storms, and extreme heat waves are now occurring much more frequently and destructively. Climate disasters disrupt human life, increase the number of climate refugees, destroy infrastructure, and drain national budgets.
Each disaster brings at least a twofold economic burden. On the one hand, there are immediate losses. Loss of life, damage to homes, agricultural lands, water systems, transportation networks, and businesses are at stake. On the other hand, the climate crisis also brings long-term structural damage. Productivity decreases, supply chains weaken, and insurance costs rise. Populations are displaced and public health crises grow.
Global data show that climate-related disasters cost hundreds of billions of dollars each year and that this figure is increasing rapidly. Developing countries, which are generally the least responsible for emissions, are among the most vulnerable to these recurring shocks due to their fragile infrastructure and limited financial resources.
Economists now broadly agree that ignoring or downplaying the climate reality is not an option. The cost of inaction is far greater than the investments required for adaptation, emission reduction, and the transition to a sustainable economy. Every postponed decision multiplies future losses. At this very point, it is necessary to remember that climate policy is, in fact, economic policy.
A resilient economy must be based on an understanding that recognizes the reality of the climate crisis and confronts the fact that economic growth and development cannot be limitless. The “doughnut economics” model of Oxford economist Kate Raworth argues that humanity can live without falling below the social foundation that protects human dignity and without exceeding the ecological ceiling that represents the carrying capacity of the planet.
From this perspective, a sustainable economy makes it necessary to integrate the awareness of limited natural resources into financial planning, to align economic decisions with ecological limits, and to invest in systems that protect both human well-being and the balance of the planet.
The Economic Cost of the Climate Crisis Can No Longer Be Ignored
One of the most important messages of COP30 was that the economic cost of climate disasters has increased dramatically worldwide. As of 2025, the costs of floods, droughts, forest fires, and extreme weather events have exceeded hundreds of billions of dollars. Funds that should be allocated to education, healthcare, infrastructure, and social services are increasingly being redirected to disaster response, repair, reconstruction, and compensation expenses.
This situation places especially developing countries in a serious dilemma: development or keeping up with disasters? It became clearly evident at COP30 that the answer to this question is now both at the same time. Development is only possible with climate resilience.
Throughout the conference, the fiercest debates revolved around “climate finance.” Developing countries and NGOs emphasized that at least 300 billion dollars per year is needed for adaptation and loss and damage funds. However, the reluctance of developed countries to increase their commitments significantly widens the implementation gap. Therefore, one of the fundamental truths taught by COP30 is this: Without financing, real transformation is not possible.
“Just Transition” and Systemic Transformation
In an environment where the concept of “environmental justice” is becoming better understood every day, it is encouraging that the concept of “just transition” gained a central place at COP30. This means that policies related to the energy transition must be supported by safe social policies for workers and vulnerable communities. Considering the regions damaged by forest fires, floods, and drought in many countries, it is clear that just transition policies must be an integral part of national climate strategies.
During the COP30 negotiations, especially the G77+China bloc demanded the establishment of a Global Mechanism for Just Transition. The emphasis on the transition being just means that workers’ rights, social inequalities, and the fragility of local economies must be taken into account. In the context of Türkiye, this indicates that the social dimensions of climate adaptation strategies must also be considered in many areas ranging from mining to the fossil energy sector and from agriculture to tourism.
One of the key messages left behind by COP30 is this: The climate crisis is no longer an issue of the future, but an urgent issue of today. The struggle against this crisis must be carried out with economic rationality, social justice, and intergenerational ethical responsibility. Therefore, the message to be drawn for political decision-makers, the private sector, financial institutions, and academic circles is clear: Fighting climate change is no longer a luxury, but a necessity at the center of economic strategy and a moral duty that we must fulfill for future generations.
COP31 Antalya: A Unique Opportunity for Türkiye
The fact that COP31 will be held in Antalya is not only a great diplomatic success for Türkiye, but also one of the rare opportunities offered by history. However, this opportunity should not be limited only to the promotion of Türkiye, its tourism potential, or the prestige of hosting such an event. COP31 Antalya can become a platform for Türkiye to demonstrate its seriousness about the climate crisis, its scientific capacity, its sense of ethical responsibility, and its visionary approach to the world.
Türkiye has more than 200 universities, strong academic staff, thousands of researchers, dynamic civil society organizations, and climate activists who work selflessly in the field. COP31 Antalya should create a meeting and contribution platform through which all these groups can reach out to the world.
The purpose of this participation should not only be to diagnose climate problems, but also to demonstrate that Türkiye is a country that produces solutions, develops proposals, and shapes global debates. Because hosting a COP also brings with it the responsibility of having a say in climate diplomacy.
Not Only Energy, but Sustainable Lifestyles Should Also Be on the Agenda
The agenda of COP31 Antalya will of course include alternative energy sources, renewable investments, financing mechanisms, and strategies for phasing out fossil fuels. However, as indicated above, Türkiye should not limit itself to these technical discussions. It should also speak out on how sustainable ways of living can be built within societies. In this framework, the following themes should be highlighted:
• Water conservation and water ethics (Türkiye is among the countries experiencing water stress. Serious pollution has occurred in major rivers, and 186 out of its 240 lakes have dried up. Other rivers also face serious risks.)
• Sustainable agriculture and agroecology (especially in the context of drought and food security)
• Urban transformation (climate resilience in cities such as Antalya, Istanbul, and Izmir)
• Circular economy and waste management
• Simple, moderate, and nature-compatible lifestyle models
In Türkiye’s cultural heritage and Anatolian wisdom, concepts such as moderation, balance, avoiding waste, and stewardship are very strong. COP31 Antalya can be a great opportunity both to remind society of these values and to carry them into the universal climate discourse.
Mizan: A Covenant for the Earth
The declaration titled “Mizan: A Covenant for the Earth,” carried out by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) with the active contributions of Üsküdar University and environmentalists, holds great significance not only for Muslim communities but also for global ethical debates.
The concept of “Mizan” in the Qur’an expresses that the universe and society are built upon justice, balance, and measure. This concept represents a worldview that does not reduce nature to a commodity, that considers the economy within biophysical limits, that is not human-centered but responsibility-centered, and that is based on intergenerational justice.
While academics, theologians, environmental philosophers, and activists in Türkiye have contributed to the formation of this text, these contributions should be made visible at COP31 Antalya. This would not only present Türkiye’s accumulated knowledge in cultural and religious studies to the world, but would also emphasize that the climate crisis is not merely a technical issue, but also an ethical, spiritual, and cultural one. This point was also emphasized in the 2016 UNEP document titled “Religion, environment and culture in the context of the 2030 agenda for sustainable development.”
A COP31 summit to be held in Antalya should be seen not merely as a 12-day diplomatic event for Türkiye, but, if properly prepared, as a national transformation initiative. For this purpose, COP31-related studies should already be launched at universities, and broad-based forums should be organized for civil society. Municipalities and local administrations should update their climate adaptation plans, while green finance strategies should be developed for the business world. In addition, the tourism sector should prepare for COP31 with green standards and carbon reduction plans, and youth movements should be included in decision-making processes.
In short, if this process is managed correctly with a holistic approach, Türkiye can become not only a country that achieves diplomatic success with COP31 Antalya, but also a model country that triggers ecological and economic transformation within itself.