The Ministry of National Defense (MSB) announced the deployment of 6 F-16 fighter jets and air defense systems to the island as part of plans to enhance the security of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).
Prof. Havva Kök Arslan, Head of the English Department of Political Science and International Relations at the Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Üsküdar University, made important evaluations regarding the increasing military mobility in the Eastern Mediterranean and its reflections on the Cyprus issue.
The Iran issue: A critical node in the global order
Prof. Havva Kök Arslan stated that the Iran-centered tension has led to the formation of a new security architecture in the Eastern Mediterranean, saying, “The Iran issue, beyond being merely a security or nuclear program discussion, has become a critical node in the energy, financial, and geopolitical structure of the global order. One of the arenas where this knot is being attempted to be untied is the Eastern Mediterranean. The escalation of tension between the US and Israel with Iran has led to an increase in military buildup on the island of Cyprus. The dispatch of warships and aircraft to the region by European Union countries and Greece's military reinforcement of the Greek Cypriot Administration are the main factors raising tensions,” she said.
Türkiye’s F-16 deployment to TRNC: A multi-layered strategic move
Emphasizing that Türkiye's deployment of 6 F-16 fighter jets and air defense systems to the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) is critical for regional balances, Prof. Arslan continued as follows: “In this critical period, Türkiye's dispatch of 6 F-16 fighter jets and an air defense system to the TRNC is considered an important move in terms of regional and global balances. So, what is the strategic logic behind this step? What positions have regional and global powers (USA, EU countries, Greece, Iran) taken in this process, and what kind of moves have they made? Türkiye's deployment of 6 F-16s and air defense systems to the TRNC is a multi-layered and timely strategic move. Türkiye, within the framework of the 1959 London and Zurich Agreements and the 1960 Cyprus Constitution, is the guarantor not only of the TRNC but of the entire island of Cyprus. Experts emphasize that this move is a requirement of the obligation to protect the integrity of the island and the security of Turkish Cypriots in a potential conflict environment. Especially in an environment of uncertainty, it aims to create a deterrent force against attempts to disrupt the existing constitutional order or gain territory.”
Power balance in the eastern mediterranean is rapidly changing
Prof. Arslan stated that many global and regional actors are simultaneously demonstrating military presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, and noted the following: “There is already a significant military presence in the region. The USA, UK, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, and Greece have sent warships and aircraft to the region, stating they are against the Iranian threat. Türkiye, in this environment, must also 'be in the field' and position itself as a regional power. This move is also important as it demonstrates Türkiye's support for the TRNC.”
Energy security is of strategic importance for Türkiye
Prof. Arslan also drew attention to the importance of the Eastern Mediterranean in terms of energy resources, stating, “The energy resources and trade routes of the Eastern Mediterranean are of strategic importance for Türkiye. This step clearly demonstrates Türkiye's presence in the field regarding potential issues related to energy supply security.”
Greek Cypriot administration’s NATO membership attempt: A critical risk for Türkiye
Prof. Arslan also stated that attempts by the Western world to include the Greek Cypriot Administration in NATO, citing the Iranian threat, might come onto the agenda, saying, “Some commentators indicate that the Western world might attempt to include the Greek Cypriot Administration in NATO under the pretext of the Iranian threat. The Greek Cypriot Administration’s membership in NATO without Türkiye’s approval would carry the risk of encircling Türkiye and disregarding the existence of the TRNC. This move aims to preemptively prevent such plans.”
Greece: One of the most active military actors in the region
Noting Greece's military activity in the region, Prof. Arslan said, “Greece’s dispatch of F-16s and warships, the military buildup of European countries, and the deployment of Patriot missiles to the Greek Cypriot Administration have created a threat perception in Türkiye. Türkiye has responded to this perception by both increasing its deterrence and preparing for possible surprise developments.”
Eastern Mediterranean to carry crisis potential for a long time
Prof. Havva Kök Arslan stated that the Eastern Mediterranean has become a complex chessboard for different actors, saying, “The US is seen as the initiator of operations against Iran, and significant destructions are being experienced in the region due to the lack of a strategic exit plan. In the long run, the US is increasing its geopolitical rigidity in an effort to maintain the dollar's status as a reserve currency. Israel, on the other hand, is avoiding direct conflict but continues to create an indirect security umbrella by cooperating militarily with Cyprus.”
Prof. Arslan also noted that France, the UK, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain have increased their military presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, citing the Iranian threat, stating, “The main strategies behind these moves are: ensuring energy and trade security, protecting the EU member Greek Cypriot Administration against possible attacks, supporting Israel's indirect security, assuming an independent security role within NATO, and it is noteworthy that France and the UK are establishing Cyprus-based operational areas.”
Greece sent 4 f-16s and a warship to the greek cypriot administration
Prof. Arslan, stating that Greece, as one of the most active actors in the region, sent 4 F-16s and a warship to the Greek Cypriot Administration, said, “Some generals are acting under the assumption that the Aegean Islands will be armed and that there will be EU and US support in a possible conflict.”
Prof. Arslan also noted that Iran, targeted by US-Israeli attacks, increased the risk of regional spread by retaliating, stating, “The drone attack on British bases also affected the Eastern Mediterranean. In the long run, the Iranian issue poses a challenge to the dollar-centric global financial system and concerns not only the regional but also the future of the global order.”
Cyprus is now one of europe’s advanced defense platforms
Prof. Havva Kök Arslan stated that the island of Cyprus is no longer just a diplomatic or energy-based area of competition, saying, “The island has ceased to be merely an energy or diplomacy arena, becoming a geostrategic node and one of Europe’s advanced defense platforms. Three main military axes are forming in the region. Northern Axis: Turkish coasts, TRNC, and the Turkish navy, Central Axis: Island of Cyprus, British bases (Akrotiri and Dhekelia), and European elements, Southern Axis: Israeli coasts, the Levant basin, and US allied elements.”
Unexpected moves could increase the risk of direct conflict
Prof. Arslan, stating that the military buildup in the region also brings various risks, listed the future risks as follows: “Direct Conflict: Greece's unexpected moves in the Aegean Islands or Cyprus could trigger a direct conflict. Greek Cypriot Administration’s NATO Membership: This initiative by the West could constitute a red line for Türkiye and create a crisis within the alliance. Long-Term Military Buildup: Weapons and ships deployed to the region might remain even after the threat is gone; this situation could pose a risk for Türkiye. Deepening Regional Competition: The permanent military presence of European countries could increase power competition in the Eastern Mediterranean. Testing of the Global Order: The Iran-centered crisis is a situation that tests not only the regional but also the global economic and security order.”
F-16 deployment: A timely and strong response
Prof. Havva Kök Arslan, noting that Türkiye's move to send F-16s to the TRNC can be evaluated as a strong and timely response to the increasing military buildup, concluded her words by saying, “This move is critically important for exercising the right of guarantorship, ensuring energy security, and guaranteeing the security of Turkish Cypriots. In the upcoming period, the Eastern Mediterranean will continue to be a crisis area where energy competition and the security strategies of major powers intersect. It is clear that Türkiye will continue to be present in the field to protect both its own security and the existence of the TRNC.”
